Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 111 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  Rumblings from North Korea and some weak economic data are todays excuse for the decline.  But we stick with the technicals.  Up trend lines from November on the daily charts of some of the stock indices have been violated to the downside.  I'm sticking with the thesis that the rally is over.  The summation index is heading lower.  Perhaps we will get a snap back to the violated lines on some of the indices.  But I'm going with the trend is now lower going forward.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  A bearish engulfing pattern has appeared on the daily charts.  We're right at the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell again in what looks like a liquidation of assets.  The futures were off $22 and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  Gold has to hold the $1550 level or we are going to go a lot lower.  The XAU fell 5 1/2 as the gold stocks have been decimated.  ABX lost 1 1/2, GG off 1 1/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares have dropped much further than I thought they could go.  There is opportunity here in my mind.  But it could be the attempt to catch a falling knife and that usually ends badly.  I sold the April ABX calls that I've had for a while at a 95% loss.  Plus it was a bigger than usual loss because I had more contracts than usual.  So it was a poor trade with horrible tactics and trade management.  Actually there was no trade management and that was the problem.  I might try the May calls next.  Or not.  Perhaps it's best to try and simply regroup here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trend lines have been violated for some of the stock indices but not the major ones such as the Dow and the S&P 500.  However with the Dow transports, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE indexes all having broken their up trend lines, it's safe to say that the decline is underway in my opinion.  We'll see how it plays out from here.  The next market moving data should come in the form of the employment report on Friday.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see affair.  Gold looks like it is in a free fall and needs to hold the $1550 level or we will really start to see something.  That's a guess as usual.  My trading account for the year is now solidly in the red but there is plenty of time in 2013 to turn that around.  It's only the beginning of April.  However if my trading tactics don't improve, it will be another losing year.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to the US sell-off and take it from there.     

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The Dow transports were down pretty good today.  The NYSE composite and the Russell 2000 small caps were lower as well.  So the Dow is masking what I believe is the beginning of the downside that I'm expecting to see here.  I'm not sure what the catalyst lower will be but it should arrive shortly.  Unless I am completely off in my prognosis.  That is always a distinct possibility.  GE rose 1/4 on light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold took a hit today as the precious metal futures fell $25.  The US dollar was up today.  The XAU got clobbered, off 5 1/4.  ABX down 3/4, GG lost a buck and NEM led the way down by 1 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are already very medium term oversold and they are still falling.  Unless there is some kind of turnaround this week, the gold rally could be coming to an end.  My April ABX calls are dead.  I was certainly way off on this trade and should have dumped them much earlier in the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Money continues to pour in late in the trading day for the stock indices.  That's usually a positive going forward.  I'm still looking for a decent decline to start here any day now.  Perhaps the employment report will be the catalyst.  But who knows?  If we continue higher everything that I have been thinking is wrong.  Gold took a big drop today and I'd expect some follow through downside tomorrow.  I don't think there is anything that can save my ABX trade.  I'll chalk it up as another loser and regroup from here.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A weaker start to the month of April as the Dow fell 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative as the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The stock markets are still in holiday mode for today as some foreign markets remain closed.  Still in a sideways rut for the stock indices.  Todays action should turn the summation index lower.  Perhaps we will be in a holding pattern until Fridays employment report.  Or maybe todays overall stock weakness is the start of the decline that I've been looking for.  I could continue on with other scenarios but the markets will go where they want.  GE was basically flat on the day with light volume.  We're at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  No trades in mind here.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and it should have been more considering todays drop in the US dollar.  These two have not had the usual inverse correlation lately.  Also when there has been a flight to safety there is more strength in the US dollar vs. the gold futures.  Gold remains an under performer.  The XAU fell 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My April ABX calls are on their way into oblivion.  Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, this trade will be another loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still say we are on the verge of a drop for the stock indexes.  The negative technical divergences remain in place.  The Dow has been the leader lately and that is not a positive going forward.  I could be wrong but I am sticking with a negative bias towards the stock market for now.  Gold is dead money but at least we are done with the historically worst month of March for the precious metal.  The gold shares remain big laggards.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.   

Another new high for the Dow and the S&P 500 finally reached one too.  The Dow was up 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The S&P 500 has now reached record territory.  I still think we are at a top here.  Next week should tell the story unless we just continue to move sideways.  So we'll see.  The technicals are still both short and medium term overbought for the stock indices.  The volume to reach this point has been very weak.  That is not a positive going forward.  GE had no change on the day with light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower today as was the US dollar.  The precious metal futures were down over 10 bucks.  The XAU was off 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume.  My April ABX calls are still big losers.  Three weeks to go in the April option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've finished the 1st quarter of the year with a great gain for the stock indexes.  The gains were some of the best ever for stocks.  Will it continue?  Time will tell but I'm looking for the start of a decent decline here any day.  I could be wrong and often am.  Gold remains dead money and the gold shares have completely under performed in the 1st quarter of 2013.  We'll see if that continues going forward as well.  We are now on the cusp of a long holiday weekend.  I'd expect Monday to be a slow session as all the players start to return.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend to come up with some kind of plan for next week.  Plenty of economic data next week with Fridays employment report at the top of the list.  For now it's Thursday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow started off to the downside and stayed there all session.  The Dow fell 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  That reflects the overall market being stronger than the Dow today.  All the stock indices opened the day much lower and the NASDAQ made it all the way back into positive territory.  Perhaps the S&P 500 can make it to a new all time high tomorrow.  Still just moving sideways on the stock indices.  It has the feel of wanting to go higher but it is a light volume holiday week that concludes tomorrow.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up almost 10 bucks on the futures despite a stronger US dollar.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade isn't over yet.  The XAU was up by 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up at least 1/2 on OK volume.  We have yet to see a sustained rally in the gold shares for some time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the week, month and quarter tomorrow before a long holiday weekend.  Still overbought on the short term stock index technicals.  I'm still looking for the end of the rally here even if the S&P 500 makes a new all time high.  Gold continues to try and hold on in the $1600 range.  The gold shares continue to under perform.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and see how we finish things tomorrow.

The Dow climbed to a new high today as the most watched index gained 112 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Follow through upside tomorrow should take the S&P 500 to a new all time high as well.  But that should be about it.  I don't expect a new leg up here.  The volume is light and I do not trust light volume rallies.  The transportation index is lagging here and that is not a positive going forward.  I will say that I did not expect any 100 point moves in the Dow this week so perhaps my stock market analysis is all wrong here.  However I do believe we are in the process of putting in a top at this juncture.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still in a trading range here and no trades there for me now.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  Trying to hang around the $1600 level here.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume.  I would expect the gold shares to trend lower for the next couple of days with the dumping of losers for the quarter.  But that's a guess as usual.  My ABX April calls are heading towards worthless.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days to go in March.  I would expect a drift higher for the stock indices after todays action.  I still think we are at or near the end of the rally that began last November.  We'll know if that prognosis is correct in due time.  Gold continues to be dead money and the gold shares remain unloved.  Looks like another losing trade in the ABX calls.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.

Another day of marking time as the Dow fell 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward.  Sideways now for a couple of weeks on the stock indices.  Even if we get one final push for new highs in the S&P 500, that should be it for this rally.  However I am more of a believer that we will break down from here.  No important trend lines have been violated to the downside in the stock indices yet.  Or I could be wrong in my assessment of the situation and we rally huge from here.  But I doubt it.  GE was down 1/8 on average volume.  Sideways here for 6 weeks and counting.  I have no trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold was off a touch today as an agreement was hammered out for Cyprus to avoid total financial collapse.  But they've come pretty close.  The precious metal futures were off a couple of bucks after being down a lot more.  Impressive, given the big day in the US dollar.  The gold shares lagged as usual though.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My April ABX calls are still solid losers.  One of the problems here is that while being stuck in a losing position, it takes away from what could be a time to look for other trades.  Sure you keep an eye out on things but you always come back to the trade you're in.  A little less than 4 weeks to go in the April option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  This week already has the feel of being a wash for the stock indexes.  It is a holiday shortened affair with the end of the month and quarter.  A lot of players will be out.  Some economic data out in the next few days.  But I don't expect any big swings in the stock indices.  Likewise for gold.  Overbought short term here but we could be in a holding pattern.  We'll see.      

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 90 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Today was pretty much the opposite of yesterday.  Perhaps we can have one final move to new highs for the S&P 500 but that would be about it in my opinion.  And that may not even happen.  I think we're building a top here and a longer term one at that.  But who knows?  Maybe we just continue to grind higher into the April option expiration.  Or perhaps we return to the April sideways movement in the stock indices due to the tax season as has happened in years before.  The technicals in the stock indexes remain overbought and that won't last forever.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell $7 on the futures today as the US dollar got clobbered.  That isn't bullish for the precious metal going forward.  The XAU was off 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My April ABX calls remain losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll hopefully be done with the Cyprus crisis after this weekend.  Next week is a holiday shortened trading week.  So the volume should be light and the volatility should be muted.  That won't help my ABX trade as more time premium will be taken out.  Still 4 weeks to go in the April option cycle though.  Gold itself has had a small rally but it hasn't really taken the gold shares with it.  As I've already said before, I think we are building a top in the stock market here.  The longer it takes for the top to build, the stronger the move will be out of it.  Or if this is simply a consolidation, the higher we'll move if it breaks out to the upside.  But I don't think that's the case.  We'll see what happens with Cyprus over the weekend and watch for the markets reaction on Monday.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today we were lower as the market tries to make up its mind here.  The Dow fell 90 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  We started the day lower and continued that theme throughout the session.  I still think that we are in the process of putting in a top now.  I believe the negative RSI divergence on the daily charts will halt the rally that began last November.  I also think we have a five wave up pattern in the S&P 500 daily charts and that this is the final wave higher.  In fact that 5th wave could be done and we simply decline from here.  Or we get more sideways action before heading lower.  Of course I could be wrong in my analysis and the stock indices consolidate here before moving forward again.  We'll see.  GE was off an 1/8 or so on average volume.  A negative RSI divergence on the weekly charts here.  No trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold was up 6 bucks on the futures today as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The gold shares showed a little life.  The XAU gained 3 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all gained at least 3/4 on good volume.  The gold shares are short term overbought here even though they haven't had much of a rally.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade can last a bit longer but I certainly don't know for sure.  My ABX calls remain solid losers.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It will be interesting to see how we close out the week for the stock indices.  Another down day could put some dark cloud cover on the weekly candlestick charts.  That remains to be seen.  Gold has crossed $1600.  I think if we can get past $1620, maybe we can get to the resistance at $1660.  That's a guess as usual.  There is strong resistance there and I would not expect to just break through on the way to $1700.  But the markets go where they want, regardless of what I think.  We'll keep an eye on what happens in the foreign markets tonight and see how we finish up the week tomorrow.  

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The Fed came and went without any changes in policy.  We will have to wait and see how the stock indices finish out the week.  I still say that we are building a top here.  But I've been wrong before.  We're still waiting on the next move in Cyprus.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume after being higher earlier.  Waiting to see if the overall market will begin to take its cues from GE.  Gold was off around $4 in the futures and a couple of bucks more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar fell a bit today.  The XAU was off 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM didn't close the day much different from yesterday.  Volume was light.  The gold shares continue to do nothing.  My April ABX calls remain losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've gotten the Fed out of the way and now await the next market catalyst.  Perhaps it will come from Europe but that's a guess as usual.  Maybe we are simply in a quiet digestion period, considering the gains so far this year.  That sometimes happens in the April option cycle with the focus shifting to the tax deadline.  I'm still calling for some kind of top and a decline from around here for the stock indexes.  Gold is dead money with only a slight move higher here so far on the Cyprus crisis.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed market today as the Dow gained 3 points while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower.  The advance/declines were negative and the volume was average.  The stock indices are still trying to digest what is going on in Europe.  Maybe we can get another push higher with the Fed tomorrow but I'm a believer that we are near the end of the rally.  I could be wrong.  We will have to see what happens tomorrow.  Technically the stock indexes remain overbought but not so much so on a short term basis.  The sock market will take its cues from the Fed tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold was higher again.  The futures here rose 6 bucks.  The US dollar was up today as well.  The flight to safety trade is attracting capital.  As usual the gold shares continue not to participate.  The XAU was flat on the day.  ABX and GG barely budged, while NEM was up 1/3.  Volume was average.  I'm still in the April ABX call trade that is a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The problems in Cyprus appear to be a blip on the radar screen for now.  The selling we've seen has been met with buyers.  Money continues to flow into stocks.  I think we are building a top here.  The summation index has rolled over but not decidedly so.  The next few days will help tell the story.  But I still don't think that it is time to be a buyer of stocks.  We'll see.  Gold itself has grudgingly moved higher but the gold shares continue to lag.  This will end at some point but I certainly don't know when.  All eyes and ears will be on Big Ben tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there. 

We begin the week on a down note as the problems in Europe surface yet again.  The Dow fell 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It could have been a lot worse since we started the day off by over double where we ended the trading session.  But the buyers still believe that the market has nowhere to go but up.  I still think we are near or at the end of the months long rally but it will take time to build a top.  The problems in Europe are not going to simply go away but the stock indices forget about them at times.  We will have to see how the rest of this week plays out in Cyprus.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  The up trend line on the daily charts from the beginning of the year has been broken here.  Not so for the Dow and the S&P 500.  We'll see in time if GE is a precursor for the overall market.  Gold had a flight to safety day with the futures gaining 12 bucks.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU only managed a 1/3 point gain though.  ABX, GG and NEM only had slight fractional gains on light volume.  My ABX calls continue solidly in the red.  This trade has to pick up some steam this week or it's dead.  If the gold shares can't get a decent rally going on todays news, exactly when can they?  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It will be interesting to see what transpires from here as the stock indices are still overbought.  The tone is that we are simply going to digest what happens in Europe and continue on to new highs.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and that is probably the next market mover.  Unless whatever comes out of there is not a surprise.  Then it will simply be a non event.  Gold itself is perhaps putting in a short term bottom here but the gold shares remain laggards.  We'll keep an eye out on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.   

The week ended with a whimper as the Dow fell 25 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  Haven't gotten to an all time high on the S&P 500 yet but it is probably coming.  I still think we are near the end of this great run up in prices that started last November.  Bullishness is rampant.  But you can't argue with price.  The stock indices continue to grind higher.  On to the April option cycle and there is an extra week there plus a holiday.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  A negative divergence in the weekly RSI indicator but it hasn't meant anything yet.  So we'll see.  Gold barely moved today despite a good drop in the US dollar.  The usual inverse correlation here just hasn't worked lately.  I don't know why.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM finished the day little changed on expiration heavy volume.  My ABX calls continue to lose value as time goes on.  This trade will be a loser barring some unexpected event.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are still negative RSI divergences in the stock index daily charts.  Unless we power higher here to negate those divergences, they shouldn't be ignored.  The market is technically overbought and has been for quite a while.  This won't last forever.  We've got the Fed next week but I would not expect any major news out of that.  I could be wrong.  Gold continues to do nothing.  I suppose that is better than falling down.  The gold shares are going nowhere fast.  I'm stuck in yet another losing gold share trade.  Perhaps I'll pass on trading gold again and concentrate on the OEX.  It's something to ponder over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts again and try to come up with a game plan for next week and the April option cycle.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Another new all time high for the Dow and the S&P 500 is right on the cusp of doing so as well.  The Dow gained 83 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The positive expiration week bias remains.  I'm still a believer that we are in the last legs of this uptrend that began November 2012.  However if the RSI daily indicator for the S&P 500 powers up to a new high, I will be wrong in my assumption.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see if we get some follow through upside in the stock indices tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/4 on average volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold was up a couple of bucks on the futures.  The US dollar took a hit today but gold itself did not respond.  That isn't bullish going forward.  The XAU was up 1 1/3.  ABX was flat on the day after being higher earlier, while GG and NEM had fractional gains on the day.  Volume was average.  Still no signs of life for the gold shares.  My ABX calls remain solidly in the red.  Perhaps I will have to book the loss earlier than I expected.  I'll give it another week most likely.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It's up, up and away for the stock indexes.  How long can this go on?  Usually longer than anyone thinks.  I still believe that we are in the top of the ninth in a nine inning ballgame.  Time will tell on that.  Gold remains dead money.  The gold shares remain total under performers.  My trading remains poor at the moment.  We'll wrap up the March option cycle and the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow managed another small gain as the most watched index was up 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We are getting to the end of this rally in my mind.  Although the action in the Dow transports today says that we'll get one more push to the upside in the stock indices.  But that should about do it.  The positive expiration bias remains for a couple of more days.  The summation index continues higher.  Bullishness abounds.  Maybe we can get a new all time high in the S&P 500 by the end of the week.  That's just a guess.  GE was up a touch on light volume.  The volume has dried up in this issue lately.  No trades here for now.  Gold lost $3 on the futures today, which wasn't all that bad considering the US dollar had another very strong day to the upside.  The XAU dropped 3 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost at least 2/3.  Volume was average.  Unless things turn around quickly my April ABX call trade doesn't have a chance of turning a profit.  Gold remains dead money and the gold shares even worse.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The negative RSI divergences remain on the charts for the major stock indexes.  Unless there is some strong upside move here, the divergences remain.  It is something that I can't ignore.  We'll see what happens moving forward.  Gold is going nowhere fast and continues to disappoint.  March is not a good month for the price of gold.  It looks like the ABX call trade will be another loser.  My ideas so far this year have been hit and miss.  And the misses have cost more than the hits.  But there's still over 5 weeks left for that trade and anything can and will happen in the markets. 

A mixed market today as the Dow managed a gain of 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ showed losses on the day.  Perhaps this is a near term top but it is expiration week.  The usual positive bias should exist.  The summation index continues higher but is getting to the overhead resistance.  I'm still a believer that once the top is put in place here, that will limit the gains for a while.  Only 3 days to go in the March option cycle and it looks like I won't be trying the OEX puts now again.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps GE is the canary in the coal mine.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold had a decent day, the futures were higher by $13.  The US dollar finished little changed on the trading day.  The XAU gained 3 1/3.  ABX up 1/3, while GG and NEM gained 3/4.  Volume was good for ABX, light for the others.  ABX needs to get moving to the upside or my April ABX call trade will be another loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices remain very overbought.  It doesn't appear as though there is much market moving economic data out the remainder of the week but you never know.  The trend remains up but my feeling is that will be changing soon.  Expectations are very bullish and there seems to be a quiet complacency tone setting in.  The negative technical divergences remain.  We'll see.  Gold had a nice move today and perhaps there is a small double bottom on the daily chart.  Time will tell.  Gold has been such dead money for so long that perhaps we will finally see some interest.  Or not.  March is generally not a good month for the price of the precious metal.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 
   

The beat goes on as the Dow gained 50 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Grinding higher.  The summation index is moving upward.  We are about as overbought as you can get but that doesn't mean the stock indices won't go a bit higher.  There is still a three point negative RSI divergence on the daily S&P 500 chart.  It also appears to me that we are in the 5th wave of a 5 wave move up that began last November.  What I am saying is that this rally is on its last legs and when we start to move lower it will last a while.  Perhaps we can set a new all time high in the S&P 500 but I think that's about it.  I could be wrong but the technicals say otherwise to me.  GE fell 1/8 on average volume.  Not much to say here.  A negative RSI divergence here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold was pretty much flat on the futures today as the US dollar fell just a bit.  The XAU was off 1/3.  ABX and NEM finished the day barely unchanged, while GG dipped 1/4.  Volume was light.  My April ABX calls are still solidly in the red.  We are at the point on the weekly RSI indicator for the ABX chart where previous moves higher have begun.  Whether or not that happens this time remains to be seen.  I'll hold onto the calls for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would certainly like to try the OEX puts again sometime this week but the risk is pretty high.  The timing would have to be spot on.  After the last losing trade though, I'm more inclined to sit it out and keep an eye on the ABX trade.  But we'll see.  If we are still higher again tomorrow and the volume is light, I may have to try the March OEX puts again.  Gold is going nowhere at the moment.  Ditto the gold shares.  This ABX trade doesn't look like the smartest thing in the world at the moment either.  The usual upside expiration week bias is intact for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets overnight and take it from there. 

The employment report came out and it was a strong number.  The Dow rallied right away and then gave it all back, only to continue the upward drift for the rest of the day.  The Dow finished the day with a gain of 67 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The market can remain overbought longer that I could stick around for the March OEX put trade.  I had to sell them today for a 70% loss.  With only a week to go in the March option cycle, I didn't want to see another 100% shellacking.  Do I think the market will pull back at the beginning of next week?  Yes but most likely not enough to make that trade profitable.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  No trades in mind there for now.  Gold sold off early on the jobs report but somehow made it all the way back to finish up a couple of bucks.  This occurred despite a very strong US dollar.  I don't know what to make of it.  The XAU was up 2/3.  ABX and GG were off 1/8, while NEM fell 2/3.  Volume remains good here.  My April ABX calls remain losers for now.  6 weeks to go on the April option cycle from here.  I'll need to see some more one point up days in ABX for this trade to work.  Wishful thinking perhaps on my part as we remain both short and medium term oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I gave the OEX March puts a try and it failed.  Definitely early there and perhaps the stock indices will have their usual upward expiration week bias.  But there is still the negative divergence on the daily RSI.  Unless we really move higher from here, that divergence cannot be ignored.  That said, I think when we do reach the next top, it will be an important one.  But none of that really matters now.  I booked the loss and it's time to move on.  Who knows?  Maybe I'll try again next week.  Gold had a strange day.  It had every reason to sell off hard and it didn't.  A very strong jobs number coupled with a huge move up in the US dollar.  Usually that would have led to at least a $20 move lower in the precious metal.  Didn't happen.  Perhaps the gold market is telling us something we don't know yet.  Or not.  It could just as easy drop on Monday for all I know.  The technicals for the gold shares have been begging for some kind of rally for weeks.  However it just isn't happening.  I've said it a number of times recently, gold is dead money.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend to come up with the next idea for a trade.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

Drifting higher today ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow gained 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Things could go either way here but there is also a slight chance that we continue to drift.  Overbought for sure on the stock indices.  The summation index continues to the upside.  My OEX March puts are solidly in the red.  Unless there is good move to the downside tomorrow, I'll have to dump them at a loss.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was extremely light.  No trades there for now.  Gold was flat on the futures but down from yesterdays aftermarket gains.  The US dollar was much lower today and that didn't help gold.  That's a negative for now.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX and GG fell about 2/3, while NEM was off 1/8.  Volume remains good to average here.  My April ABX calls remain in the red.  The weekly RSI here is at the point where we should see a bounce at the very least.  Hasn't happened yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I have no idea what the employment report will bring but the market reaction to it is the key.  It will be the excuse to buy or sell for tomorrow.  I've made the case for a decline and purchased some OEX puts.  However the market goes where it wants and can remain overbought for longer than expected.  Gold continues to be dead money and nobody wants it.  That is usually the time to step in.  March is historically a poor month for the price of gold though.  It looks like yesterdays pop in the gold shares was a one day wonder.  All eyes on tomorrow morning.  We'll take it from there.

Another new high in the Dow as the index gained 42 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The Dow remains the leader here as the NASDAQ was slightly in the red for the session.  When the Dow leads it usually isn't bullish going forward.  There's also a possible 3 time negative divergence for the stock indexes on the daily chart RSI indicator but not on the Dow.  My March OEX puts are in the red.  There's 7 days to go in the March cycle.  I'm still going to wait for the employment report on Friday before doing something with this trade.  GE was up a touch on light volume.  A negative RSI divergence here as well.  However any positive price action going forward would negate the divergence.  So we'll see.  Gold was flat on the futures but rose $7 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was stronger today as well.  The XAU finally had a bounce and gained almost 5 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all rose by more than a buck on good volume.  My April ABX calls are still in the red but not as much.  I'm not sure what to make of todays action in the gold shares.  It is probably just an oversold bounce as the US dollar was pretty strong today and there was no news to really drive the gold shares higher.  Whatever the reason, we'll take it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My guess is that tomorrow will be a waiting game in the markets for Fridays jobs numbers.  Short term overbought here but we could stay that way.  Or not.  The March OEX put trade will all boil down to the market reaction on Friday.  That's my guess for now.  Gold held in pretty well today despite the good gain in the US dollar.  I certainly can't figure out why but it could be bullish for gold moving forward.  The gold shares rallying today might be a precursor to higher prices moving forward.  That's all conjecture as usual.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight and go from there. 

A new all time high for the Dow as the most watched index posted a gain of 126 points.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average.  The summation index should turn back up with todays price action.  We've broken out from the latest small consolidation in the stock indexes.  This is either the last leg up or perhaps we have formed a small bearish megaphone on the daily charts.  The next few days will tell.  My order for the March OEX puts was filled in the morning.  I might be early here as well.  The puts are at the price I paid for now.  I'm still going to wait for Fridays employment report on this trade unless we get a strong move higher in the next two days.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  We never went back to fill the gap here.  It could also be the start of the last leg higher here as well.  The daily charts look like that they are beginning the #5 or E move of a 5 wave up.  I could be wrong.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker today.  The XAU was off 1/4 after being higher earlier.  ABX, GG and NEM all continued lower fractionally.  Volume was average.  My ABX April calls have lost half of their value.  I'll consider dumping them after the employment report.  This trade has all the look and feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There was a chance that the stock indices would break out to the upside again and that is what has happened.  There is still a possibility of a 3rd negative divergence in the daily RSI indicator depending on what happens from here.  Some of the stock indexes had a gap to the upside today, so follow through higher tomorrow is key.  My work calls for some weakness going into next Monday from here though.  I could be mistaken there as well.  I think the stock markets reaction to the jobs report will be the difference one way or the other.  The ABX trade already looks dead.  Oversold, staying there and no bounce.  If you're long there is no worse scenario.  We'll see if the foreign markets ride the coattails of the Dow tomorrow.   

We started off the week with a gain as the Dow rose 38 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We sold off early and came back once again.  That has been the pattern lately and it continues.  Perhaps we'll hit new all time highs on the Dow tomorrow.  I would still like to try the OEX puts before the employment report due on Friday.  I've left in an open order for the March puts.  If we get to new highs it may get filled.  The summation index continues sideways.  We should be short term overbought on teh stock indices by Wednesday if we progress higher.  GE was up just a bit on light volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold was little changed on the futures, with the US dollar down a touch.  The XAU got pummeled again though, losing 4 1/8.  ABX off 3/4, GG shed 1/2 and NEM fell 2/3.  Volume was heavy here again as the gold shares remain in liquidation mode.  My April ABX calls are solidly in the red.  It looks like I was definitely early on this trade.  I may have to bail out soon because there still is no love for the gold shares.  Deeply oversold and staying there.  I might have to exit on any bounce.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices have the feel of wanting to move higher here.  If the volume remains weak, then the puts will be the proper play.  If we continue to rally into Wednesday, then the March OEX puts should work.  We will have to see how it sets up in the next 2 days.  Gold is dead money and the gold shares are zombie like at this point.  Plenty of time for the April ABX calls to work but it isn't looking good right now.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and see what happens tomorrow.

Today it was a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow was off over 100 points early but closed the day up 35.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  Apparently the Washington budget mess is a market non-event.  Moving to short term overbought for the stock indices but we're not there yet.  The summation index is moving sideways for now.  I'm still inclined to purchase some OEX March puts before next Fridays employment numbers.  I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend.  GE was off a couple of cents on average volume.  More overbought than oversold here.  There's still a gap to be filled that is lower than where we are now.  Gold was off $5 on the futures, which wasn't too bad considering the continued strength in the US dollar.  The dollar is overbought and staying there.  The XAU was off a point.  ABX down 7/8, GG was up a touch and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was very heavy for ABX and good for the others.  My open order for the April ABX calls was filled.  It is already in the red.  Perhaps I'm early for this idea but we are very oversold on any time frame.  But that doesn't mean ABX can't go even lower.  Plenty of time for this idea to work though.  However my gold share trades for the past year have been losers with one exception.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although I'm looking for some type of decline in the stock indexes next week, there is a possibility that we will move to new highs on the Dow as well.  We could be on the brink of the final leg up from the rally that began this past November.  If that is the case buying the March OEX puts will not work.  The price action early next week will be the key.  Gold continues to be dead money and the gold shares are getting crushed.  Why would anybody purchase calls in the gold shares at this point?  March is historically the worst performing month for the precious metal.  Sometimes you have to do the opposite of the crowd to be successful.  I'm not saying that this ABX April call trade will work out.  But when all the technicals are very oversold, there is no better time to give it a try.  Unless the gold shares are going to crash, I don't see much more downside from here.  But I could be wrong and often am.  I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to be ready to resume trading on Monday.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

Another one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The major average fell 20 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Perhaps today was the day to try the March OEX puts as we were up around 75 points during the session.  The volume wasn't anything special either.  The OEX puts I'm looking at got to just about what I'd like to pay for them but I did not act.  Maybe tomorrow.  There is a chance that we could move to new all time highs on the Dow here as well.  The technicals are mixed at this point, with no clear buy or sell.  The GDP revision was a non-event as is the Washington budget mess at this point.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold continued lower by another $20 today.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU fell 3 points.  ABX and GG lost 2/3, while NEM dipped 1/3.  Volume was average to good here again.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the April ABX calls.  May have to rethink this tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A new month starts tomorrow and that should bring in some positive money flows.  The summation index should be at about the zero line.  What it does here will be key for the near term market movement.  I'm still thinking that the OEX puts will be the way to go here.  Plenty of bullishness abounds.  But I could be wrong and we might make a run at new highs on the Dow.  Since the technicals are mixed it is a tough call.  Gold is heading back down and $1550 needs to hold there to keep the bullish case alive.  My guess is that we will hold since the precious metal is very oversold even with the bounce earlier this week.  Two weeks and a day left in the March option cycle.  We'll see if there is any news out of Washington tonight and the markets reaction to events tomorrow.  

Bernanke kept talking and the market liked what it heard.  The Dow rose 175 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This could be the snap back rally that I will look to short.  If the volume dries up and we continue higher then buying some March OEX puts would seem to make sense.  It is also possible though that the decline is over for now and we continue on to new highs for the major averages.  Problems in Europe?  Washington budget deadline of tomorrow?  The stock indices didn't seem to care about any of that today.  Tomorrow could be a different story.  Obviously volatility has picked up.  I am still inclined to try the March OEX puts ahead of next Fridays employment report.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  There's still a gap to be filled here at around $22.50 or so.  The light volume here could be a clue.  Or not.  Gold headed back down today as did the US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $20, while the dollar gave up what it gained yesterday.  No flight to safety for today.  The XAU fell 2 1/2.  ABX and GG fell 1/3, while NEM dropped 7/8.  Volume was good to average.  I still have the open order in for the April ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After Mondays debacle, the stock indices have made quite a comeback.  The transports had a very good day today and they have been leading things.  The summation index is still heading lower but could be starting to move sideways after todays action.  It is a tricky call one way or the other.  Gold reversed back to the downside today.  Perhaps it will take some time to build a bottom here as well.  We've got the revised GDP number tomorrow and it is the end of February as well.  With the recent price gyrations it is especially important to keep a sharp eye on things as we progress.  The game is never easy but it presents even more of a challenge in an environment like this.

Bouncing back today as we were short term oversold.  The Dow gained 116 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We'll have to see how long the bounce can last.  I would still like to try the OEX March puts if we get a move back towards the 1520 level on the S&P 500.  The summation index continues lower.  Big Ben blabbed today and the stock indices found nothing wrong with what he had to say.  Todays up move was narrow though, with the Dow leading the way.  That usually doesn't imply a sustained move to the upside.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  There is still a gap to fill here.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold continues to rally here, up over $25 on the futures.  The US dollar was up a bit again on the day.  The XAU rose 1 2/3.  ABX and NEM up 1/2, GG higher by 7/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares didn't move as good as a $25 rise in the price of gold.  However I am still looking at getting some April ABX calls and have left in an open order for them.  The ticket will need to see some decline in ABX to get filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't think the decline in the stock indices has run its course.  I would ideally like to see more of a top put in here before the employment report next Friday.  However there may be some selling if a budget deal isn't reached by this Friday in Washington.  I'd expect some kind of last minute "fiscal cliff" kind of agreement but you never know.  Gold has had a pretty good bounce here back over $1600.  I'm looking for a retest of the recent low in the next couple of weeks.  That should be the chance to purchase the April ABX calls if it occurs.  We'll see.  The overseas markets did drop like the US stock indexes yesterday.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight and go from there.  

So we got our answer as to what the markets are going to do today.  It was a one day negative reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 216 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Europe is back in the picture and that is not a good sign and hasn't been for quite a while.  The stock indices forget about it for a while but now it's back.  So we're in the headline risk zone again.  That doesn't include the Fed speaking the next couple of days or the revised GDP report out on Thursday.  The smaller averages have broken their up trend lines.  They led the way up and they are probably leading the way down.  The up trend lines on the major averages are still intact.  I'd short any rallies from here, although the best chance may be gone.  GE was down over 1/2 on good volume.  There is a gap to fill at about $22.40.  The 50 day moving average comes in at about $21.70.  I don't have any trades in mind here though at this moment.  Gold found a bid and was up $13 on the futures, $5 more in the aftermarket.  This despite a higher move in the US dollar today.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade is coming back.  At least it looked that way today.  The XAU was up 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  I'm still considering the April ABX calls for another trade even if I manage to get some March OEX puts.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I am disappointed that I did not move fast enough on this mornings rally to buy some March OEX puts.  The option premium almost came down to what I was willing to pay.  The stock indexes have sped up now and that makes it a tougher game to play.  We are short term oversold now on the stock indices.  Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 1475 from the up trend line and at 1460 from the previous resistance.  One of those areas should hold things for now.  Sometime within the next couple of weeks I'd like to purchase the April ABX calls.  Even though March is historically the weakest month for the price of gold, I want to put this trade on.  We are both short and medium term oversold for the gold shares.  Nobody wants them and haven't for quite a while.  I could be wrong again on the gold shares though.  I lost plenty of money last year trying to time a long entry here.  It only worked once.  So we'll see.  We will have to see if there is rampant selling in the overseas markets tonight.  We'll also have to keep an eye out for follow through selling here tomorrow.  And we've got Big Ben to deal with too.  The Washington budget problem coming on Thursday seems like it's far away.  Things are suddenly getting a lot more interesting on Wall Street.     

Bouncing back today as the Dow rallied 120 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  More questions than answers here.  Is that it for the decline or not?  Will we now move on to new highs for the Dow and the S&P 500?  Are we about to start a trading range?  There is plenty to ponder over this weekend.  I'd like to say that I know which way it will all turn out but I don't.  However if we continue higher and the volume is light, I'll be inclined to try the OEX March puts.  We'll have Washington in the spot light again next week.  The mandatory budget cuts are looming unless a deal is struck.  It is a rerun of the "fiscal cliff" drama.  Markets will respond and react.  It's just another thing to deal with in the trading game.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Could we move higher here?  Sure, it's not completely overbought on the weekly charts.  But I can't say for sure and have no trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold was off $5 during the futures session and made that back in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was up a touch today and is short term overbought.  The XAU fell 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light to average volume.  I'm back to considering the April ABX calls but there is no hurry to buy them.  We'll have to see if gold can hold the $1550 level.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility made a comeback this week.  We'll see if that continues.  I'm not sure what is in store next for the stock indexes.  The upwards climb was stalled for the first time this week.  However buyers did step in today and that was to be expected.  We will have to watch carefully what happens from here.  Gold continues to drop.  Money has been leaving that sector for weeks on end.  I was looking at a five year monthly chart last night for ABX.  February will probably end with the RSI indicator being at its lowest level within the half decade.  It is also the RSI level from which we have at least seen some kind of monthly bounce.  Hence, I'm looking at the calls there for April.  I will have to re-check all of the charts over the weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan for the markets next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another downer as the Dow fell 47 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned down from a sideways congestion zone.  The breakout in some of the stock indices on Monday has been negated.  We are getting short term oversold in a hurry.  If and when we start to move higher from here, that could be the opportunity to get short.  Or not.  That will be the question in my mind for the March option cycle.  I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts if we see a weak rally from this down draft.  So we will need to keep an eye on things as usual.  GE was basically flat on the day with good volume.  GE hasn't had the decline that we are seeing in the major averages.  Perhaps that is a sign of good things to come for the overall market.  Or at least that this recent 2 day fall is nothing to worry about.  We'll see.  Gold was flat on the day but did recover the aftermarket losses from yesterday.  The US dollar was higher again.  The gold shares finally got a bid with the XAU gaining 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM moved just slightly fractionally one way or the other on good volume.  I'm considering the ABX April calls as a possible trade.  March is historically a poor month for gold though.  However December is usually a good month for the price of the precious metal and that didn't happen recently.  So we'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has returned to the stock indexes after what seems to be a long absence.  The market had been going up for so long, it seemed like everybody was bullish.  Myself included.  No important up trend lines have been broken on the major averages.  But we do see a break in the trend line for the RUT.  RUT led the way to the upside and now we will see if the reverse is true.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Gold has so far held the important $1550 level for now.  Nobody wants gold at this juncture in time.  Perhaps that is when we should want it.  I certainly don't know, having lost a good amount of money on the long side there in the past few months.  I still think $1550 is the level to watch.  We'll see how we close out the week tomorrow.

An interesting session today as the Dow fell 108 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Today was the first very negative trading day of the year.  No trend lines have been broken to the downside but if the decline continues, the rally from last November will be in question.  I would expect buyers to step in on this dip though.  After that, I may be looking at the March OEX puts.  No real reason for todays decline.  We were already heading lower when the Fed minutes took the stock indices south.  Evidently a bit of sustained growth in the economy will end the free money game.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX spiked up.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Perhaps a rest here is in the cards near term.  I have no trading ideas for GE at this time.  Gold continues to get absolutely pummeled.  The precious metal futures fell $25 and another $15 in the aftermarket.  We are almost at the critical $1550 level.  It looks like a free fall.  The US dollar was a lot stronger today.  That usually means a decline in stocks but it hasn't really occurred until today.  The XAU fell almost 7 1/2.  ABX and GG lost 1 1/4, while NEM was down 2 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  Needless to say the gold shares remain under severe pressure.  Money is fleeing this sector.  A good time to be short here, which I'm not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but today has the potential of the start of a long awaited decline in the stock indexes.  There is a glaring negative divergence in the RSI indicator on the daily charts of many stock indices.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  I will be looking at the March OEX puts if we start to move back up.  Gold is sinking fast.  If it doesn't hold at $1550 there is no telling how low it will go.  It's possible that the long bull market in gold could be over.  That's a guess as usual but we are at a critical juncture there.  We'll see if we get any bleed over selling in the foreign stock markets and see what happens tomorrow.

Onward and upward as the Dow gained 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that bodes well going forward.  It appears that we are breaking out to the upside from the recent consolidation.  Overbought, staying there and the song remains the same.  It is a momentum driven rally for the stock indices.  Nothing has changed to derail that fact.  Calls are in order until further notice.  GE gained almost 1/2 on average volume.  I thought GE might pause here given the 5 wave count on the daily chart.  It's still possible if we drop from here but that doesn't seem likely after todays action.  No trades here for now.  Gold continues to languish.  The futures fell 5 bucks even with a slightly weaker US dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  I suppose I'll be looking at the April gold share calls on a drop in the price of gold to $1550.  Not sure this is the right idea either.  Perhaps I'll simply watch the gold proceedings from the sidelines.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Traders returned in a buying mode after the holiday weekend.  We've got some economic data out this week.  Inflation and housing numbers are due along with the Fed minutes out tomorrow.  So we could see a pick up in volatility.  I have no trades on the near term horizon but I am considering some OEX puts if I see a short term top in place.  No guarantees that will be my next trade though.  We're due to see all time highs on the Dow and S&P 500, since some of the small cap indexes have already done so.  I'll be watching and waiting for the next opportunity but nothing at present seems to be viable to me.  Plenty of time in the March option cycle as it has just begun.  We'll keep an eye on Asia and Europe tonight and go from there.  

A mixed bag once again as the Dow gained 8 points on expiration good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  Every time the stock indices sell off a bit, buyers step in.  This has been the case for quite a while.  Until that aspect of the game changes, higher prices are in the near future.  You cannot fight that.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  I think GE is due for a rest here.  I could be wrong though and might change my mind over the weekend.  The daily and weekly charts remain overbought.  Gold fell again today, the futures were off around $25.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU got pounded again and lost almost 5 points.  ABX down 3/4, GG shed 7/8 and NEM lost 1 1/4.  Volume was heavy in the gold shares.  Money continues to flow out of gold and into something else.  I'm looking for gold to head for support at the $1550 level.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes have been in a broad advance for weeks.  At some point there will be a decline but even if that occurs, I believe it will be a shallow one.  Money needs a place to go and it looks like for now the destination is the stock market.  Calls are still the way to go.  Gold has broken support and puts are in order there.  Maybe we'll see a rally once we get down to $1550 but there's also a chance that the bull market there is over.  My trading this week was weak.  My tactics haven't paid off as they should.  I have no trades in mind for the coming week but will have a long weekend to decide what is next.  The profit this week could have been so much more and the loss a lot less.  But the markets don't care and the markets move on.  It is good to have a short memory in this game.  I'll check the charts over the next few days and take it from there.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another mixed session as the Dow lost 9 points with the overall market a bit higher on the day.  The advance/declines were about even and the volume was good.  Still just moving sideways on most stock indexes and the summation index as well.  Overdue for some type of decline but even if we get one it will probably be short lived.  Expiration Friday on tap tomorrow followed by a long holiday weekend.  Not much else to report for now.  GE was up a couple of cents on good volume again.  I think we are at the end of a 5 wave move here on a daily basis.  However we have broken through the $23 level om good volume.  I'd expect higher prices going forward perhaps after a small decline.  Just a guess as usual.  Gold fell again today and support levels have been broken.  The gold futures were off almost $10.  The US dollar had a strong day.  The XAU was up 1/2 but fell off from higher levels.  ABX gained 7/8, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  ABX rallied on its earnings report and the volume was heavy.  However it more than cut in half the original gain for the day.  I was able to get rid of my February ABX calls for a 99% loss.  They could have expired worthless too.  The result is the same, losing trade.  There is no love for the gold shares.  Gold itself has resumed its decline and I suppose $1550 is the next support.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The smaller stocks along with the financials continue to move higher.  That is bullish for the overall market.  I would expect the major averages to move higher as well.  Calls are still the place to be in my opinion.  Gold is heading lower and we are moving to the seasonal weak month of March there.  No trades in mind right now.  On to Friday. 

A mixed market today as the Dow fell 35 points while the overall stock indices were higher.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  The retail sales number was in line with forecasts.  The NASDAQ was higher and that bodes well for the bullish cause.  The stock indexes remain overbought and moving higher.  It is a momentum market to the upside and that hasn't changed despite the recent sideways action.  I'm still a believer in higher prices.  GE was up over 3/4 on very heavy volume.  Positive news from Comcast buying the GE stake in NBC Universal was the catalyst.  Of course if I had held onto the calls just one more day the profits from the call trade would have been much better.  But I have no inside information.  You cannot predict news that comes out of the blue.  Trading can be very frustrating at times and that trade, although profitable, fits into that category.  You've just got to keep moving forward.  Gold fell again today, down around 7 bucks on the session.  The US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU fell 2 1/4 and looks like it is on the verge of a breakdown.  ABX off 7/8, with GG and NEM lower by 1/3 or so.  Volume was heavy for ABX and light for the others.  My February ABX calls will expire worthless.  Earnings due for ABX tomorrow but nothing can save this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling kind of mixed at this point.  The trading so far this year hasn't been all that great.  I've sold the winners too early and held on to the losers too long.  That is the exact opposite recipe for success.  It is a pattern of failure.  I'll have to regroup and make sure that the next trade is a profitable one.  The stock indices continue to try and grind higher.  2 days left in February option cycle and then a long holiday weekend.  I'm thinking that we'll see higher prices going into the close on Friday.  We'll see what happens with the earnings form ABX and take it from there.  

Drifting higher today as the Dow gained 47 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  Still trying to convincingly move above the recent congestion zone for most stock indices.  I do believe that will happen but it is a question of when.  Retail sales data out tomorrow and that should provide some direction one way or the other.  Short term overbought again but that condition can persist.  Only 3 days to go in the February option cycle and the risk increases for any type of short term trade here.  GE was up 1/8 on light to average volume.  I sold the February GE calls.  I could not take the risk of a drop here with such a short time left in this option cycle.  I chose the conservative path.  The gain was 140%.  GE could continue higher into the end of the week as it too is in a congestion zone and looking to break out.  $23 would not be out of the question.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was weaker today.  Gold is trying to hold around its 200 day moving average but it doesn't look like it will.  That's a guess on my part.  The XAU was up 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM moved fractionally higher, while GG had a fractional loss.  Earnings are due this week for both ABX and NEM.  My February ABX calls are still dead.  They will probably expire worthless.  A step backwards for the trading plan this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report, as the stock indices continue to try and move forward.  The financials hit new recovery highs today and that should bode well for the overall market.  We'll see.  The positive expiration bias should be in effect as well.  Gold is doing nothing and the gold shares have been weak for months.  I'm not sure when I'll try another trade here.  The gold shares always look tempting but they continue to disappoint.  Money has been moving elsewhere.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets and check the US retail sales tomorrow.   

We started off down and spent much of the day lower as the Dow closed with a loss of 21 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Not much to say of todays market action.  No buyers but no volume either.  It is expiration week and I believe the positive bias will assert itself at some point.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  Retail sales on Wednesday is about the most interesting.  The summation index is heading sideways.  GE was off a few cents and no volume here as well.  My February GE calls are still in the black and I'm still waiting for a move towards $23.  Hasn't happened yet.  I will most likely sell these calls before Friday.  It gets very risky in the last week and there is no special situation such as earnings that were out on the final day before expiration like last month.  Gold took a hit today and fell below $1660.  Gold was off almost $20, with no news to speak of.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 3 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My February ABX calls are dead and will most likely expire worthless.  Even the earnings due of Thursday morning won't save them.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's the middle of February and the volume has been pretty light the last couple of sessions.  My guess is still that the market will run up one more time this week and then we'll see what happens after that.  Perhaps the retail sales number will be the catalyst higher.  Gold remains dead money.  We'll watch what happens overnight and go from there.      

The Dow gained 49 points to close out the week.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was weak.  We are trying to break through the top of the congestion zone here.  Perhaps expiration week will be what we need to get through.  If we do rally from here I would guess that it won't last long.  The stock indices are long overdue for some type of pullback.  Not the sideways action that we are experiencing now.  But let's see what happens next week first.  GE didn't do much all session and the volume was light.  My February GE calls are still in the black but with only a week to go, the risk is elevated.  I really need to take some kind of profit here because the ABX trade is going to be a loser.  I still think GE will attempt to get to $23, I just don't know if it will be next week.  Gold fell $4 on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU fell 3/4.  ABX and GG were little changed while NEM slipped 1/3.  Volume was light.  My February ABX calls are probably going to expire worthless.  I doubt the earnings due next week can save them.  There hasn't been any good news form ABX for quite some time and gold remains dead money.  Chalk it up as another mistake.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rally today in the stock indexes on light volume.  That really isn't a bullish sign.  Perhaps we can blame the volume on an impending snowstorm for the northeast.  But with so much of what is traded now done by computer, that argument loses some of its validity.  Regardless, there are 5 days left in the February option cycle.  Perhaps we can grind higher next week.  Gold remains above support at $1660 and below the down trend line that has been in place since last October.  Whichever way it breaks should provide a decent trading opportunity.  I certainly don't know which way that will be.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend to hopefully come up with some type of game plan for next week.  It's Friday afternoon in the winter and time for a rest.

Still in a sideways consolidation as the Dow fell 42 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We sold off early again and tried to come back.  That has been the pattern here lately.  No real news out of the ECB meeting today.  There isn't much to trade on.  I'm still going to be a believer in higher prices into the end of next week.  The positive expiration week bias should be in effect.  But anything can and will happen in this game.  GE was up a touch on average volume.  The up trend line from the beginning of the year remains intact.  I'm still waiting for the $23 level for now.  Gold bounced around today and the futures finished the session off $7.  The US dollar had a strong day and has had a very good week.  This doesn't bode well for gold.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX and GG were flat on the trading day, while NEM rose 1/4.  Volume was light to average.  My February ABX calls are almost worthless as this trade was a loser from the beginning.  I obviously should have cut the loss earlier.  But mistakes are part of trading.  The ability to move on is a must.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I thought the stock indices were on the verge of breaking out of the consolidation but it didn't happen today.  I still feel we are going to break to the upside.  I could be wrong.  Gold remains dead money.  My ABX calls will most likely be total loss.  Fortunately there was not a lot of money in that trade.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see how the week finishes up tomorrow. 

The Dow finished the day with a gain of 7 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We began the day with a good drop but managed to finish the session in the black.  That is a positive one day reversal.  We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  Declines are being bought and that was the expected near term outlook.  The summation index has started to move sideways.  I'd still be looking for higher prices into the February option expiration.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Sideways here as well.  I'm believing that it's a consolidation before we move to $23 here.  I could be wrong.  Gold was up $5 on the futures even with a stronger US dollar.  The XAU was up a point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Obviously, there is no interest at the moment in the gold shares.  My February ABX calls are losers and probably need to be sold this week before they expire worthless.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  I'm looking for another leg up on this extended stock index rally.  We are just about ready to break out higher in my opinion.  We've been moving sideways for about 8 days now.  Gold and the gold shares continue to disappoint.  That story remains the same.  We've got the ECB meeting in Europe tomorrow and that could be the catalyst for the next market move.  We'll keep an eye on that and see where it takes us.   

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 99 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  I'm guessing this is going to be a sideways range before we once again move higher but that's just a guess as usual.  No technical reason for yesterdays decline or todays advance.  Momentum has stalled to the upside here for now.  New all time highs were set recently in some stock indices, so I'm assuming that the Dow will eventually follow here.  We're only a couple of hundred points away.  Declines should continue to be bought if my hypothesis is correct.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  The volume here was lacking and that is a near term concern.  Perhaps we will move sideways here before moving higher as well.  My February GE calls continue to show a profit.  Gold fell a bit today.  The futures were off 3 bucks.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU was off a touch.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  My February ABX calls are still solidly in the red and most likely will be the first losing trade of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A volatile start to the week for the stock indexes.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  There is a meeting in Europe later this week that could influence prices.  The ECB meeting may also affect the price of gold depending on what comes out of it.  I suppose I will wait for that before I sell the ABX calls at a loss.  The earnings for ABX are due out next Thursday but I don't even think a good number there will save this trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The first triple digit down day of 2013 today as the Dow fell 129 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down.  Sideways to lower should be in the near future for the stock indices.  I don't think this is the start of any type of protracted move down but I certainly don't know for sure.  I would expect buyers to show up at some point before long.  The multi-week up trend line from November is still intact.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  My GE February calls are still showing a profit.  GE is moving sideways and as long as it holds above $22.20, I think those calls will be OK.  But I could be wrong and often am.  Gold found some buyers today on the overall stock market decline.  The precious metal futures rose 5 bucks despite strength in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains.  The volume was average with the exception of ABX where it was heavy.  My February ABX calls are still solidly in the red with virtually no chance for success.  I really should dump them this week, since this trade is a loser and has only 9 days left to go.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily S&P 500 candlestick chart looks pretty bearish after todays action.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through to the downside tomorrow.  The market is long overdue to take a breather.  However is usually takes a bit of time to build some sort of top and we haven't seen that yet.  Gold is still dead money but it hasn't broken down through the 200 day moving average yet.  It also hasn't been able to get through the 50 day moving average to the upside yet either.  Perhaps which one breaks first will give us a clue as to the near term direction there.  The gold stocks remain lackluster.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas market action tonight and take it from there. 

The momentum run continues as the Dow soared 149 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The employment report was the catalyst but the numbers were really nothing special.  It was an excuse to move things higher in my opinion.  But it doesn't matter what I think.  The market goes where it wants and there is nothing to stop this rally here.  The summation index should be back to the upside with todays action.  If what we saw in the stock indices was a pause this week, it certainly wasn't much of one.  So we'll see how much higher we can go.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  I'm still holding my February GE calls.  Perhaps I will wait for GE to reach $23.  Something to think about this weekend.  Even gold went up today.  The futures were higher by $8 as the US dollar lost some ground but the dollar finished well off of the lows for the day.  The XAU gained 2 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good to average volume.  My February ABX calls remain mired in the red.  2 weeks left there and it would take a minor miracle for this trade to turn positive.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The employment report has come and gone.  It is still up, up and away for the stock indexes as money continues to flow into equities.  The trend is higher until we get some kind of turnaround.  You cannot fight price.  The market can stay overbought for quite a while when we get this type of run.  I'm still thinking that we'll remain up into the February option expiration.  Gold remains the a laggard here.  As I've said before, even good news can't get a rally going there.  Eventually there will be a move higher but I've been looking for that for months.  Dead money.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with a game plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow dropped 50 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  Simply waiting for tomorrows employment numbers.  This is the first time we've had 2 days in a row down since the beginning of the month.  Still overbought on the stock indices so we'll need to see some more downside before another run higher or at least some sideways price movement.  We will have to see what the numbers are tomorrow and the markets reaction to them.  GE was flat on the day after being higher.  Volume was average.  My February GE calls are still positive but have lost some value.  I will probably dump them sooner rather than later.  Gold fell back today after yesterdays gains.  The precious metal futures lost $20.  The US dollar was a bit weaker as well.  The XAU was off 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on average volume.  My February ABX calls are almost worthless.  I doubt even the earnings report in a couple weeks can save this trade.  It was wrong from the start and I should have simply bailed out of the position the day after I bought it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much will tomorrows numbers matter?  Probably just a day or so.  This is a momentum rally and I would expect after we take a breather, the prices will head back higher.  Most likely moving up into the February option expiration.  After that, perhaps things will change.  Gold remains dead money.  Even bullish news doesn't do much except for a one day rally.  The gold shares have gotten pummeled.  How much lower can they go?  We'll get some rest tonight and it's on to the jobs number to wrap up the week.

Really, the market goes down too?  The Dow fell 44 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  GDP was weaker than expected and there was no new news from the Fed.  The stock indexes have been overbought for weeks.  Perhaps now we will see some decline/consolidation.  It is way overdue.  One day doesn't make a trend though.  We've still got to get through the employment report on Friday.  My thinking at the moment is that any decline will be bought.  Todays action may stop the climb of the summation index and that is something to keep an eye on.  GE fell 1/4 on light volume.  Perhaps $23 is not in the near future as I had thought.  My February GE calls are still in the black but by not as much.  I may have to consider getting rid of them if we get another run to $22.50.  The daily candlestick chart doesn't look so bullish after todays action.  Gold had a strong session, up $18 on the futures.  The US dollar was weaker.  The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold is back on track.  The gold shares continue to disappoint as the XAU fell 3/4.  It seems that nothing can get the gold shares moving to the upside.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  My February ABX calls are still very much in the red.  It appears that this trade will be a loser, barring an unforeseen spike in ABX.  2 days and 2 weeks left in the February option cycle.  The earnings for ABX are due the Thursday of expiration week.  I don't think I'll still be in the trade at that point but you never know.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some weakness today in the stock indices but the rally still seems intact.  No trend lines have been violated and really, it is only one day of decline.  We will have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  There is no love for the gold shares as they continue to drift lower despite higher gold prices.  I have no idea when that will change.  The Gold/XAU ratio has been deep in the buy zone for weeks on end.  It just doesn't seem to work anymore.  It has certainly cost me money.  Overall I think tomorrow will be a holding pattern in the various marketplaces as we await the employment report.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight sessions and go from there.

Higher and higher we go as the Dow gained 72 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  What more can I say?  The market doesn't go down anymore.  But we all know better than that.  The summation index continues higher.  GDP out tomorrow and the Fed statement.  That should get things moving perhaps.  It has been a great momentum run and there are no signs of it stopping at this point.  But it will eventually.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  My February GE calls remain in the black.  I would still like to wait until GE hits $23 to cash out on this trade.  But nobody cab predict the future.  GE remains overbought.  Gold actually went up today.  The futures rose 7 bucks on a weaker US dollar.  The XAU was higher by 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  Could this finally be the bottom for the gold shares?  I certainly don't know but it could be the snap back attempt after the recent drop.  My February ABX calls are still solidly in the red.  This is a cut the loss trade now unless we see some big turnaround this week.  Doubtful.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices remain very overbought yet continue to move up.  You cannot fight price.  I have no idea how long this can last but it has certainly lasted longer than I expected.  Perhaps tomorrows data or the Friday jobs report will be the catalyst for a breather.  Gold is once again trying to hold on at its 200 day moving average at $1660.  We'll see.  A weak GDP plus an accommodating Fed should be positives for gold tomorrow if that is indeed the case.  We'll watch what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

A slight move lower today as the Dow fell 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices are overdue for a pause or decline here but we are probably in a waiting pattern until the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  No reason to think the recent momentum rally is over.  We're still overbought on both a short and medium term basis.  I am still thinking that it is possible to see some volatility this week since it has been quiet for some time now.  We'll see.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was good.  My February GE calls are in the black as GE broke out and continues higher.  I probably should have bought more contracts but hindsight is usually never wrong.  In fact you could probably buy those same calls now and still show a profit before expiration.  I'm going to try and hold on until GE reaches $23.  Gold fell again today, off about $4 on the futures.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU dropped another 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light to average volume.  My February ABX calls are negative and have lost over 1/2 of their value.  I'll wait for the Fed announcement and go from there on this trade.  This was a loser from the start and I probably should have taken the loss early and been done with it.  We broke out of the consolidation to the downside and getting the calls there was a mistake.  I'll look for a snap back to the breakout to dump this trade for a loss.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are extended and have been for at least a couple of weeks.  I'm not going to guess when it will end because I haven't been able to yet.  So enjoy the ride.  Gold is going nowhere and the gold stocks have tanked.  My only hope for the ABX trade at this point is some type of rally off of the Fed announcement, followed by a weak jobs report.  Hope has no place in trading.  Tomorrow should be more of the same for the markets as we wait for the Fed.    

The climb continues as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Nothing technically has changed.  Still overbought all the way around and staying there.  It is the energizer bunny rally, it just keeps going and going.  Nothing to do but enjoy the ride.  We do know it can go on longer than most would expect.  We also know that it won't last forever.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Overbought here as well.  My GE February calls are solidly in the black.  I'll be holding onto them for a while, with 3 weeks left in this option cycle.  The only thing besides Apple that isn't going up is gold.  The precious metal futures fell another $13 today despite weakness in the US dollar.  This usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold hasn't taken place for weeks.  Perhaps that was a sign to simply stay away from trying to trade gold here.  The XAU fell 4 points and was crushed on the week.  ABX off 1/2, GG down 3/4 and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside.  My February ABX calls are solidly in the red.  This trade is going to be a loser and it is in the cut the loss mode already.  ABX is oversold at this point so I'll expect a bounce at some point next week.  That may or may not happen.  Gold remains dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps some volatility will return next week as there is a plethora of economic data to decipher.  And a  Fed meeting.  The trend remains up though and it would take a lot to change that.  The stock indices haven't seen any measurable decline so far this year.  Gold itself needs to hold the $1650 level of support, which is just below the 200 day moving average.  The gold shares have already broken down so that may not be a good sign.  A reversal next week would be the only way to salvage the current ABX trade but that is just wishful thinking on my part.  There is no place for wishes in trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow continued higher yet again today but it was a mixed market to be sure.  The most watched index gained 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The S&P 500 was unchanged on the day and the NASDAQ was lower.  Still both short and medium term overbought and I'm still expecting some sort of weakness or consolidation for the stock indices at this point.  Hasn't happened yet.  The summation index remains in a solid uptrend.  GE gained about a dime on OK volume.  My GE February calls are slightly in the black.  GE probably needs to digest its recent gains here and a sideways channel would not be unexpected.  I'm looking for GE to reach the $23 level before February expiration.  That's my guess at the moment.  Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar was barely higher today.  The XAU dropped 5 points.  The gold shares have broken their channel to the downside today.  ABX and NEM both fell 3/4, while GG shed a buck.  Volume was good.  I adjusted down the price for the open order for the February ABX calls and it was filled this morning.  It is already in the red and it already appears that this trade will be a loser unless we see a reversal tomorrow.  That doesn't look very likely.  Yesterdays bearish engulfing patterns on many of the gold share stocks signaled more weakness to come.  In retrospect, I simply should have canceled the ABX call order.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes continue to defy gravity and that usually doesn't end well.  You cannot fight the trend here though.  I'd expect a quiet end to the week tomorrow but that's a guess as usual.  Gold has lost its luster and continues to be dead money despite the recent $50 move to the upside.  The gold shares are leading the way down here and that is not bullish going forward.  I'll probably be holding on to the February ABX calls into next weeks Fed meeting though.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.    

It's the rally that never ends as the Dow gained 67 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative though, so perhaps we'll finally see some decline tomorrow.  Or not.  The summation index continues higher.  Very oversold both short and medium term.  This condition cannot last indefinitely.  If we do see any selling though, I believe that buyers will step up rather quickly.  It is that kind of market at the moment.  GE was off a few cents after being off as much as 1/4.  My order for the February GE calls was filled.  It is about at break even.  My thinking is that the price action here in GE is the snap back to the breakout.  I may be early though.  Still three weeks left in the February option cycle.  Gold was off $6 today on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU however dropped 4 1/3.  The gold shares continue to under perform here.  I may have to reconsider my order for the February ABX calls.  ABX off 3/4, GG down a buck and NEM shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  These issues are trying to break through their 50 day moving averages to the upside but are failing once again.  Gold itself is being turned back by the 50 day as well.  I still have in the open order for the February ABX calls but I may have to adjust or cancel it tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rally today but the breadth did not confirm.  So perhaps we'll get some weakness tomorrow.  GE has pulled back a bit on lighter volume.  I still think getting the calls here would be a good idea.  We'll see.  The gold shares had a very weak showing today.  If there is follow through tomorrow I may have to cancel the ABX call order.  Or at the very least adjust the price that I'm willing to pay for the calls.  It is something to ponder this evening.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 62 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Overbought and staying there.  It seems that even the slightest decline finds buyers these days.  I'm not sure how long this can last but you cannot fight the trend.  I would expect to see some weakness here but I've expected that more than once this year and it hasn't happened.  The summation index continues to the upside as well.  The momentum rally is intact for now.  GE lost a nickel on good volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the February GE calls.  Still waiting for the snap back from breaking above the declining tops line from October.  If and when that occurs, then the order will probably be filled.  Gold is in rally mode as well.  The futures gained $6 as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU followed the market, higher by 2 7/8.  ABX and NEM up 3/4,  and GG gained 1 1/8.  The volume was good to average.  I'm also leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls as well.  The gold shares have been moving sideways for about 3 months.  The breakout should be a pretty good move once it gets started.  The question is, which way?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices have been going practically straight up since 2013 began.  How much longer can this last?  I don't know.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  Money continues to flow into stocks.  Gold has rallied back to the 50 day moving average.  That could provide some near term resistance.  We'll keep an eye on overseas markets overnight and go from there.