Tuesday, March 26, 2013
The Dow climbed to a new high today as the most watched index gained 112 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Follow through upside tomorrow should take the S&P 500 to a new all time high as well. But that should be about it. I don't expect a new leg up here. The volume is light and I do not trust light volume rallies. The transportation index is lagging here and that is not a positive going forward. I will say that I did not expect any 100 point moves in the Dow this week so perhaps my stock market analysis is all wrong here. However I do believe we are in the process of putting in a top at this juncture. The summation index is basically moving sideways. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Still in a trading range here and no trades there for me now. Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today. Trying to hang around the $1600 level here. The XAU fell a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. I would expect the gold shares to trend lower for the next couple of days with the dumping of losers for the quarter. But that's a guess as usual. My ABX April calls are heading towards worthless. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days to go in March. I would expect a drift higher for the stock indices after todays action. I still think we are at or near the end of the rally that began last November. We'll know if that prognosis is correct in due time. Gold continues to be dead money and the gold shares remain unloved. Looks like another losing trade in the ABX calls. We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.
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