Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Another new high in the Dow as the index gained 42 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The Dow remains the leader here as the NASDAQ was slightly in the red for the session. When the Dow leads it usually isn't bullish going forward. There's also a possible 3 time negative divergence for the stock indexes on the daily chart RSI indicator but not on the Dow. My March OEX puts are in the red. There's 7 days to go in the March cycle. I'm still going to wait for the employment report on Friday before doing something with this trade. GE was up a touch on light volume. A negative RSI divergence here as well. However any positive price action going forward would negate the divergence. So we'll see. Gold was flat on the futures but rose $7 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was stronger today as well. The XAU finally had a bounce and gained almost 5 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all rose by more than a buck on good volume. My April ABX calls are still in the red but not as much. I'm not sure what to make of todays action in the gold shares. It is probably just an oversold bounce as the US dollar was pretty strong today and there was no news to really drive the gold shares higher. Whatever the reason, we'll take it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My guess is that tomorrow will be a waiting game in the markets for Fridays jobs numbers. Short term overbought here but we could stay that way. Or not. The March OEX put trade will all boil down to the market reaction on Friday. That's my guess for now. Gold held in pretty well today despite the good gain in the US dollar. I certainly can't figure out why but it could be bullish for gold moving forward. The gold shares rallying today might be a precursor to higher prices moving forward. That's all conjecture as usual. We'll keep an eye on things tonight and go from there.
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