Monday, March 25, 2013
Another day of marking time as the Dow fell 64 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward. Sideways now for a couple of weeks on the stock indices. Even if we get one final push for new highs in the S&P 500, that should be it for this rally. However I am more of a believer that we will break down from here. No important trend lines have been violated to the downside in the stock indices yet. Or I could be wrong in my assessment of the situation and we rally huge from here. But I doubt it. GE was down 1/8 on average volume. Sideways here for 6 weeks and counting. I have no trades in mind for GE at the moment. Gold was off a touch today as an agreement was hammered out for Cyprus to avoid total financial collapse. But they've come pretty close. The precious metal futures were off a couple of bucks after being down a lot more. Impressive, given the big day in the US dollar. The gold shares lagged as usual though. The XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My April ABX calls are still solid losers. One of the problems here is that while being stuck in a losing position, it takes away from what could be a time to look for other trades. Sure you keep an eye out on things but you always come back to the trade you're in. A little less than 4 weeks to go in the April option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. This week already has the feel of being a wash for the stock indexes. It is a holiday shortened affair with the end of the month and quarter. A lot of players will be out. Some economic data out in the next few days. But I don't expect any big swings in the stock indices. Likewise for gold. Overbought short term here but we could be in a holding pattern. We'll see.
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