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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Bernanke kept talking and the market liked what it heard.  The Dow rose 175 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This could be the snap back rally that I will look to short.  If the volume dries up and we continue higher then buying some March OEX puts would seem to make sense.  It is also possible though that the decline is over for now and we continue on to new highs for the major averages.  Problems in Europe?  Washington budget deadline of tomorrow?  The stock indices didn't seem to care about any of that today.  Tomorrow could be a different story.  Obviously volatility has picked up.  I am still inclined to try the March OEX puts ahead of next Fridays employment report.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  There's still a gap to be filled here at around $22.50 or so.  The light volume here could be a clue.  Or not.  Gold headed back down today as did the US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $20, while the dollar gave up what it gained yesterday.  No flight to safety for today.  The XAU fell 2 1/2.  ABX and GG fell 1/3, while NEM dropped 7/8.  Volume was good to average.  I still have the open order in for the April ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After Mondays debacle, the stock indices have made quite a comeback.  The transports had a very good day today and they have been leading things.  The summation index is still heading lower but could be starting to move sideways after todays action.  It is a tricky call one way or the other.  Gold reversed back to the downside today.  Perhaps it will take some time to build a bottom here as well.  We've got the revised GDP number tomorrow and it is the end of February as well.  With the recent price gyrations it is especially important to keep a sharp eye on things as we progress.  The game is never easy but it presents even more of a challenge in an environment like this.

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