The market made a nice comeback in the final hour of the trading year and the Dow rose 76 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of being 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving up but the trend has lessened and is sideways in my view.  Another real positive advance/decline ratio may change that.  Today looks to me like front running what we expect to be a positive start to the new year on Thursday.  I'm still looking at the January SPY puts though.  I may get them before the end of the week.  I'm waiting for a new high with a lower RSI.  May or may not happen.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was good considering it's the end of the year.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares are due for a rest.  I am still holding my GDX January calls.  If my market scenario of a drop in early January pans out, this trade should hold up.  If not, the gains will not be as good as they could be.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX rolled back down today and that is good news for the potential SPY January put trade.  A move back down to the 12 level here will help with the set up for a decline.  The market could just keep going up during the January option cycle as well.  As always timing of the entry will be important along with not getting greedy if this trade does come to pass.  I'd expect money and optimism to be prevalent on Thursday.  Where we go after that is the question.  No really important economic data due the rest of the week.  We will get the Fed minutes on Friday.  It is still a holiday mode mood on the street.  Europe and Asia were lower in what market that were open.  We'll ring in the new year tonight and get ready for Thursdays open.  Happy New Year everyone. 

A downer Monday as the Dow fell 183 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to go sideways.  Long overdue for some downside and we finally got some today.  My fear here is that I may have missed the chance for the SPY January outs if we simply continue to head lower.  We are still short term overbought on the major indices with plenty of room to drop on the indicators.  I won't chase things here because I am looking for a positive money flow start to the new year on Thursday.  However if that doesn't materialize, the down move will have been missed.  GE was off a dime on OK volume for the still holiday mode mood of the market.  Gold played catch up on the futures as it is now comfortably above the $1500 level.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX rose 5/8.  Volume was light.  Still pretty overbought for the gold shares but in rallies it stays that way.  My GDX January calls remain with a nice profit.  I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to this trade but I do have an objective in mind.  I usually sell to early when things get going so I'll hope I don't hold on too long this time around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has already taken off which leads me to believe that I may have missed the short side boat here.  The signal that I got has proven to be correct so far.  If it is valid we've got a lot lower to go.  It seems to be the case at the moment.  The VIX did stop at its 200 day moving average.  Perhaps that will hold things here.  If we can get a small rally from here in stocks perhaps we'll get the negative RSI divergence that I'm looking for.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is out there.  We'll know what's going on as the week progresses.  End of the year tomorrow and I would expect a light volume session with perhaps some more selling.  Just a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll say goodbye to 2019 tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  I had an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I still like this idea but perhaps today was the day to purchase.  We still remain very overbought on all time frames.  I'll have to check things over again this weekend but I think that waiting to get the puts could be the right choice.  Ideally I'd like to purchase them the first trading day of the new year on strength.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates.  GE lost a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit.  Overbought now for the gold shares.  However if my prognosis for a decline is correct, the gold shares should rise on a flight to safety.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed today.  My hope is that the expected decline in the S&P isn't already underway.  You really can't read too much into what happens during a holiday week.  I'll expect most players to return at least by the beginning of the new year on Thursday.  Make no mistake about my position here.  I think that the upside is limited and that we will see a decent drop at the beginning of the new year.  Whether it occurs in the January or February option cycle is the question that needs to be answered.  I'm prepared to try either or both.  I'll go over all the charts this weekend and be ready to go on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Santa Claus rally is in full swing as the Dow gained 106 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Overbought to the extreme for the major stock indices.  I did place an order for the SPY January puts and I'm leaving it open overnight.  Going parabolic in the S&P at this point but you just don't know when it will end.  it always ends badly though.  I don't know how long this will last and I'll probably be early with the puts.  However I'm getting a solid sell signal from an indicator that usually works and doesn't give a signal that often.  That is why I'm confident that the SPY puts will work here and if not, then in the February option cycle.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold continues higher as the futures rose a dozen.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  Due for a rest now for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX January calls are showing a nice profit.  I do believe that there is further to go on the upside here in the next three weeks.  We'll see about that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume and higher prices as holiday mode on Wall Street is in session.  We're hitting new all time highs on a daily basis with seemingly nothing stopping the rally.  Perhaps we can continue higher into the beginning of the new year next week.  I'll all for trying the SPY January puts here but not exactly sure on the timing.  When things get like this, there is no telling how high we will go before reality sets in and the drop begins.  I'd like to somehow take advantage of that.  The light volume is another indicator of just how precarious this levitation is at this point.  So I'll leave in my open order for some puts and see what happens.  What was open in Europe and Asia was higher overnight.  We'll see how the week closes tomorrow.

Pretty much running in place in todays shortened trading session as the Dow fell 36 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  This is a tough week to make much sense of because a lot of players aren't going to the office.  Although I wanted to wait for a negative RSI divergence before attempting the SPY January puts, another signal that I'm looking at is flashing sell.  This signal has preceded at least twenty point moves lower for the SPY in the past.  It sometimes takes a while before the drop and other times it is right away.  So I'll most likely be looking to buy some puts on strength Thursday.  If we don't get a quick drop, I'll try this idea again in the February option cycle.  The S&P remains overbought both short and medium term.  GE was up a few cents on the same extremely light volume.  Gold found buyers as it is indeed breaking its down trend line from autumn.  The precious metal futures were up $15 and are just below $1500.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was very good for the shortened session.  My GDX January calls are showing a solid profit at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and oversold.  The ideal scenario for me here would be a lower VIX Thursday with a nice gain in SPY.  The market rarely cooperates.  Only four trading days left this year and I would expect more tax loss selling than anything else.  It is a holiday week with thin trading.  I suppose that I'll simply wait to see how we open on Thursday and go from there.  I think that the upside is now limited from here and that the odds favor lower prices in the month or two ahead.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher last night.  Merry Christmas everyone and we'll be back at it on Thursday.

The Dow tacked on another 96 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market didn't gain as much as the Dow.  overbought and overdue for some kind of pause in the rally.  I'm still interested in the SPY January puts as soon as I see a negative divergence in the SPY daily RSI.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins tomorrow.  Markets close early as well and don't reopen until Thursday.  It is holiday mode all week.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold rose $8 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU climbed 3 3/4, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  I noticed over the weekend that silver had just broken its declining tops line that began in early September.  Last night I noticed that gold was starting to move up and any gain today would break through its declining tops line as well.  I placed an open order for some GDX January calls and it somehow got filled early this morning.  It is showing a profit.  I am wary of this trade though because some of the individual gold stocks are extremely overbought.  The trade could work though if GDX can finally get past the 28 level.  The favorable seasonal factor could work in the trades favor as well.  But we all know markets go where they want and there is plenty of time left in the January option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and continues to be oversold.  The S&P 500 remains overbought both short and medium term.  The consensus now is fairly bullish and that's another reason that I'm looking at the SPY January puts here.  I may have to wait for the beginning of next year though before a signal is furnished.  Plus the idea could just be wrong as markets have a tendency to move higher than anyone thinks during sustained rallies like the one that we're in right now.  So we'll see what happens.  Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  Light volume shortened session due tomorrow.

The Dow closed the week with a gain of 74 points on extremely heavy expiration related volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Overbought and staying that way as we hit new all time highs on a daily basis now.  I don't know how much higher that we'll go here but I am content to wait for a sell signal at this point.  I'll continue to watch the indicator that has worked well in the past.  I'll also be on the lookout for a negative RSI divergence but we are not there yet.  GE was unchanged on heavy volume.  Gold was little changed but the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was average.  I'm still waiting for GDX to get oversold on a daily basis and will probably go out to the February option cycle there.  Although I'm not exactly sure if that idea is going to be correct.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode and the VIX is low.  Although the VIX remains oversold it doesn't mean that the rally in stocks is over.  Until we get some kind of sell signal the trend is up.  We now enter holiday mode for the market with Christmas in the middle of next week.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins on the 24th.  We should expect a flow of money into the market at the beginning of the year as well.  So I probably should at least wait until then to attempt the SPY puts.  For now it will be more going over the charts and trying to remain patient.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

We got some upside today as the Dow rolled ahead 137 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines remain positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Money is looking for a place to go and stocks seem to be it.  No news to explain the rally except that Trump was impeached.  The market obviously doesn't care.  Plenty overbought here any way that you look at it.  I'm waiting for my sell signal to take hold and that may take some time.  Too late in my mind to try the SPY calls here.  In retrospect the December calls were the way to go.  Triple witching tomorrow and that should skew the volume higher.  Holiday mode after that.  GE was up a few cent and the volume was light.  Gold was up $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and that condition could persist.  No overhead resistance for stocks and that's a plus for the bulls.  In rallies the overbought condition can last for quite a while.  That is the position that we find ourselves in today.  I do not expect a sell off with the holidays upon us but I could be wrong.  Business trading for the most part will finish for the year tomorrow as many players will be home for the holidays.  My hope is that things set up for a decline in the beginning of January, which would be the best possible scenario for my ideas.  The February option cycle has an extra month in it and that will make the SPY puts pricey if the signal sets up for that time frame.  We'll simply have to watch and wait.  Many of the negatives for the market are out of the way so we'll also have to see how high things can go here in the near term.  We haven't even reached the days for the Santa Claus rally yet which will begin on the 24th.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More running in place today as the Dow fell 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  No news to speak of beyond the impeachment drama.  But this is already baked into the market in my humble opinion.  Everybody knows that it isn't going to lead to the dismissal of the president.  That's the consensus at least for now.  Still short term overbought for the major averages as we get through options expiration week.  I'm basically waiting to buy the SPY puts in the next couple of weeks.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up a little.  Gold was little changed again and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX gained about 1/3.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range.  As much as I'd like to try the calls here, I really am trying to wait until things get solidly oversold.  That hasn't happened in quite a few weeks as the gold shares continue to languish in a trading range.  The seasonal pattern is for a rise now into January.  The trading is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very overbought on some of the indicators that I have for the S&P.  That doesn't mean a collapse is around the corner but the upside in the near term could be tough sledding.  The VIX remains oversold as well.  Once again I'm trying to be patient here as the holiday week coming up should be pretty uninspiring.  At least I have a couple of ideas in the works if things pan out according to plan.  I don't want to miss out on the gold shares but I must say that the fundamental picture there is lacking.  Still, gains into the new year cannot be ruled out.  I suppose I'll let this week pass and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see if the market has any response to the impending impeachment in tomorrows session.

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow gained 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages.  I have decided that my next SPY trade will be the January or February puts.  One of the indicators that I follow is about to give a very reliable sell signal.  I am waiting for that to happen.  This indicator doesn't give a signal that often but it is very reliable.  Once the signal is triggered the market could fall immediately or take a short time for a top to form.  Either way if I attempt this idea and it doesn't work right away, I'll simply try it again.  So I'm being patient for now and watching how high we go before the indicator gives the signal.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter.  Gold finished little changed again and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm waiting for the gold shares to get oversold before trying the calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is oversold and starting to move sideways.  I'm guessing that it will remain in this condition for the rest of the month.  As I've already said, after this week the market will be in full holiday mode.  Especially with Christmas falling right in the middle of the week.  Most offices will have limited staff on hand until the new year.  Most trading business for 2019 will occur this week.  This will also be highlighted by the option expiration on Friday.  So for me it's a matter of being patient and waiting for the anticipated sell signal on the S&P 500.  That is the game plan for now.  Europe was mixed, with Asia higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Perhaps it was a delayed reaction to the US/China trade deal but the Dow rose 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow was up 200 points during the session, so that got cut in half.  It's options expiration week ahead of a holiday week.  Any trading business that needs to be done will most likely happen in the next 4 days.  We are short term overbought but the overall market is much stronger than the Dow here and that's a plus.  New all time highs for many stock indices as there is no overhead resistance.  That doesn't mean that we'll simply go straight up but the path of least resistance is higher.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold was flat on the session, while the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost a point and GDX was down 1/3.  Volume was light.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back around 12 and getting oversold.  You've got to expect higher prices here as most of the uncertainty is now out of the way.  The market still has the impending impeachment to deal with but for now it seems like that will be a non event.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'm still considering the GDX calls if we roll over here but will most likely go out to the February option cycle if I do.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how tomorrow goes.

The trade deal is done for now but we didn't see much of a rally.  The Dow rose 3 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The market rallies, then sold off and finished about mid-range of the days movement.  We also got the election in England out of the way as well.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and we've got some potential negative divergences in place as well.  Just a week to go in The December option cycle.  Yes, I'd like to maybe try the SPY puts here but the lack of time remaining is a concern.  The market had every right to take off to the upside today but it didn't.  Perhaps shorting any strength on Monday is the way to go but I'll have to think about it over the weekend.  GE was down a dime on average volume.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures.  The US dollar continued lower which has been supportive of gold here.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Gold has held up well here and is a seasonal area of strength.  We are overbought on the gold shares though and although I'd like to try the GDX calls it's hard for me to do with the indicators at high levels.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales came in lighter than expected.  The VIX fell below the 50 day moving average and had decent drop.  However this did not translate into a rally for stocks.  Not sure what that means.  I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and decide what to do from there.  I do think that after next week the market will be in holiday mode for a couple of weeks.  That should slow down the volume and the volatility potential.  So maybe it's this week or nothing when it comes to the next trade.  However there are no clear trading signals, just leanings towards this way or that.  I'll have plenty of time in the next couple days to decide what to do or not do.  Unlike the US, Europe and Asia saw rallies to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

More talk of a US/China trade deal finally coming to fruition drove stocks higher today.  Of course it hasn't happened yet and we've heard all this before.  Nonetheless the Dow soared 220 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Any end to this long trade dispute would be a good thing, just to get some uncertainty out of the way.  Perhaps the tariff deadline of the 15th won't matter if something concrete is announced before the close tomorrow.  But that's a lot of ifs.  The major stock indices remain overbought but there is room to move a bit higher on the short term technical indicators.  Some of the major indexes also hit new all time highs today and that cannot be overlooked.  If we do see a deal perhaps we'll really get going to the upside with no overhead resistance to stop things.  So tomorrow will probably be pretty interesting one way or the other.  GE was up almost 1/2 and volume expanded.  Gold fell almost $10 on the futures but made up ground in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly lower, coming off of the worst levels for the session.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on OK volume.  The gold shares have held up rather well here but are overbought.  For some reason I'm still considering the GDX January calls if we get some more pullback there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX have rolled over and the VIX itself is moving lower.  It closed right on the 50 day moving average.  If a deal is announced tonight, the VIX will continue back down towards its recent low at 12.  That would produce a pretty good rally in stocks if that were to occur.  Hasn't happened yet.  Once this US/China tiff gets over with for now the next focus for the markets will be what?  Impeachment?  Interest rates?  Coming earnings?  There's always plenty of questions without simple answers in this game.  Six days to go in the December option cycle.  I'll probably have to pass on trading the SPY options here.  Perhaps I'll go out to February with the GDX call idea but that doesn't really match up with the seasonal rally that I'm expecting here.  I'll ponder this idea later tonight.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see if this trade deal actually gets done tonight and take it from there.

The Fed did nothing as expected and the Dow rose 29 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grudgingly moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  With the Fed out of he way we'll look to some news on the December 15th tariff deadline.  The problem there is that we may not hear anything until the weekend when the markets are closed.  We're still overbought for most for the major stock indices.  I don't have any S&P trades in mind at the moment.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold rallied today and gained almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade yet again.  Not completely overbought now for the gold shares, so there's probably more room to go higher.  I may chase this trade yet but the ideal time once again has passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX are rolling back over.  This would imply that we will see higher prices in the near future and likely new all time highs yet again.  The strength of the overall market today vs. the Dow basically says the same.  So my guess is that we'll get good news on the tariff front eventually and the market will rally on that.  We also have an election in England tonight that could affect the Brexit saga.  However this drama has been going on for years now and it doesn't really seem to be affecting the market in the US.  Not yet at least.  Retail sales data on Friday could be a mover but we've always got the 15th in the background.  We are in a favorable seasonal period for stocks so any decline should be short lived.  As we saw last week.  My thesis of a possible decline in the beginning of December has not panned out.  My trading plans and ideas haven't been up to snuff for a while.  That needs to change.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tonight.     

Lower again today on the Fed waiting game.  The Dow lost 27 points on about average volume.  the advance/declines were just about even again.  The summation index is moving sideways now.  The market appears stalled now, waiting for the next catalyst.  Will it be the Fed tomorrow that gets things going?  Something new from the US/China trade war?  We've still got the deadline of the 15th looming in the background.  I'm not sure what to do here with regards to the SPY.  More overbought than oversold here.  Perhaps the sidelines is the place for me but I've been there for quite some time already.  Still a week and a half in the December option cycle.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold gained a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up almost a point and GDX was up almost 1/4.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators now a mid-range for the gold shares.  I'm still looking at the GDX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Considering there isn't anything expected from the Fed, the market is acting pretty sluggish.  Perhaps the impending impeachment and trade deadline are the cause.  We are still just about to make new all times highs again if we can get some sort of rally.  We had a weird end of the day sell off today as well but the market came back from it in the final 5 minutes.  I guess we'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  I was hoping that GDX would head down to the 26 level again before I attempt to buy the calls there again.  But the Bollinger bands are contracting, with the lower band now above the 26 level.  My thinking is that the GDX calls will be my next trade.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A lower start to the trading week as the Dow fell 105 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trending up for now but not decidedly so.  The S&P has stalled right below new all time highs.  We could simply be waiting on the Fed announcement that occurs on Wednesday.  However nothing is expected out of that meeting, with rates to be unchanged according to most everyone.  I'm thinking that the lack of decent volume today suggests that there won't be a lot of downside here.  We are still at the mercy of the next headline though.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on very light volume.  I'm still considering the January calls here as well as February now.  If GDX heads towards the 26 level I'll be inclined to give this idea another chance.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today despite not much of a loss for the major averages.  I'm not exactly sure what that means but it would help with my set up for new all time highs this week if we don't drop from here.  You can make a bearish case here too, with a negative divergence in the daily RSI for the S&P.  But that is just a potential outcome for now.  We'll get inflation and retail sales data this week but I think that the most important thing coming up for the market is December 15th and the tariff question.  Any kind of deal or delay should propel prices higher.  With the opposite happening if the tariffs take effect.  It is a dangerous game to play if you are on the wrong side of the outcome.  Hopefully it gets solved before the weekend.  The market also has to deal with the impending impeachment of Trump but that doesn't seem to be an issue for stocks at the moment.  Subject to change as we move forward of course.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The market powered higher today sparked by the good jobs numbers and the Dow climbed 337 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will stop the summation index from moving lower but not exactly putting it back in an uptrend yet.  It has turned the short term technical indicators back up though on the daily charts of the major stock indices.  It has been quite a turnaround from the negative way that we started the week.  We do remain at the mercy of the next trade headline.  December 15th looms as the next important date as more tariffs are supposed to take effect.  If an agreement is reached beforehand you can expect more upside.  If not, then the opposite will probably occur.  Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle.  GE was up over 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold took a hit and the futures fell over $15.  The US dollar rose a bit.  The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  I'm thankful that I did not chase the gold shares this week.  If GDX makes it back towards the 26 level, I may still try the January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  New all time highs back in the picture for next week?  It appears to be heading that way.  There's also the potential for some negative divergences to show up as well.  The VIX has turned around and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  But there's also still the chance that anything can happen when it comes to the geo-political trade war nonsense that we're in at the moment.  I'll continue to check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Pretty much a day on hold as we bounced around and ended up with the Dow ahead by 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  There's still plenty of geo-political turmoil in the background as the market decides what to do next.  We'll get the jobs data tomorrow and that should move things early.  But we are still at the mercy and risk of the next headline and that could drive things either way.  I was thinking that we should test the lows of this week but if we rally tomorrow that probably won't happen.  I considered purchasing the SPY December calls today but didn't.  GE was off a dime and the volume was light.  oversold on the short term here.  Gold was up a buck or so as the US dollar continued to sell off.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains again on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX are about halfway so we don't have a clear picture there.  If we rally tomorrow I think you can say that the decline is over.  I'll err on the side of caution and stay on the sidelines for now.  However if we do rally tomorrow you can look back at this week as the opportunity to get long the December cycle.  Hasn't happened yet and it may not.  We also have to keep in mind the December 15th date as the next round of China tariffs is due.  If a deal is struck before then, expect the market to approve of that.  If not perhaps the SPY December puts will be back in vogue.  But lets get through the employment report first.  Asia was up, with Europe generally lower.  We'll check out the jobs numbers and finish the trading week tomorrow.

We got a bounce back today as the Dow rose 147 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but another day like today could change that.  I don't think that the decline is over but I could be wrong there.  The technical indicators for the major averages are more oversold now but not completely so.  Perhaps some more selling back to yesterdays lows will set us up for something more sustainable to the upside.  We're at the constant mercy of the next tweet or headline and that is a tough way to go.  With plenty of time left in the December option cycle, I'm inclined to take it slow for now.  GE was off about a dime and the volume was lower.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I did place an order for the GDX January calls again but canceled it at the close.  We had a pretty bearish reversal in silver today and that is a concern for the bulls in precious metals I think.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX fell dramatically today after yesterdays ramp up.  It doesn't mean that the decline has ended but it probably means that we won't just be headed straight down.  I do think that we'll be setting up nicely for a Santa Claus rally if we continue to drift lower now into the expiration in a couple of weeks.  That's a guess as usual.  I would think that tomorrow would be a waiting game on the jobs report Friday, barring some unforeseen overnight headline.  So for now more patience on the next trade is required.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The Dow was off around 450 points early on so we came back from that.  But with the indicators pointing down and not oversold yet the path of least resistance is lower.  Perhaps we'll make it back down to the break out point of 3025.  If so, we'll take a look at the SPY calls there.  I do think that it's too late for the December puts now.  Another missed opportunity but we'll have to see how things go from here.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Already oversold here.  Gold spiked higher with the futures gaining $15.  The US dollar was lower again.  The XAU was up almost two points, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was heavy and we broke the declining tops line for GDX that began in September.  I will now have to consider chasing this move higher despite the overbought condition.  If we're lucky we'll get a move back to the break out point.  I also noticed higher volume in the GDX calls yesterday that resulted in expanding open interest today.  So players are getting behind this move higher.  But make no mistake, I've missed the best entry point for this attempted trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up to 18 today and finished well off of that.  It got overbought in a hurry that past couple of days.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it may not be one that lasts too long.  A positive headline will turn things around in a hurry.  That doesn't mean we're about to get one though.  If we continue weaker for the next couple of sessions, I may try the SPY December calls ahead of the jobs report on Friday.  But we'll have to see how the next couple of days pan out.  It has been a rough start to the month for the bulls but not entirely unexpected.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got some actual selling to begin the month of December as the Dow fell 268 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Tariff man Trump was back at it, this time for South America.  The market did not like what it heard.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock averages.  It is probably too late for the SPY December puts but if we get some kind of snap back to the upside in the next couple of days there may be a chance.  Todays volume tells us that there is more room to go lower.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Overbought now for some of the gold share indices indicators.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls but cannot chase that trade here.  The Bollinger bands for gold and the gold shares are getting very tight so  big move is coming here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today looks like it is the beginning of the December decline that we were looking for.  That may set things up for the January calls though.  The VIX had a big move and is getting overbought in a hurry.  I guess I'll give it a couple of days and go from there.  We do have the employment report due out on Friday.  There is also plenty of time in the December option cycle to put on a trade.  It is a rough start to the month for the bulls though.  Plus it also reminds us that we are at the mercy of the next headline wherever it comes from.  However technically speaking the indicators have now rolled over and there is room for more decline in them.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires with overseas trading tonight.

A holiday shortened down session on the last trading day of November.  The Dow fell 112 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is back to sideways.  Negative US/China trade talk now and we are at the mercy of the headlines.  There is now a potential negative RSI divergence for the Dow on the daily chart.  It doesn't show up on the other major stock indices though.  GE was pretty much flat on very light volume.  Gold gained on the negative trade talk.  The futures rose $8.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good considering the holiday atmosphere.  I canceled my GDX January call trade as I have missed it.  If we happen to drift back down towards the 26 level I'll consider putting it on again.  Mentally I'm not happy missing this GDX call trade.  My order came very close a couple times to being filled.  Perhaps I need to be a bit more flexible in my pricing.  But the game goes on and there's always another trade out there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual as we begin the month of December.  There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle to make something happen.  I am no doubt leaning towards the SPY puts here as we have been overbought for weeks on end and December can sometimes have a decline to set up the Santa Claus rally.  We'll see how things go this time around.  Europe and Asia were lower to end the month.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

The holiday rally continues as the Dow rose 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that bodes well for the bulls.  We'll get a shortened session on Friday but the main players will be off for the rest of the week.  Overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance.  Nothing has changed and we'll see what happens in December.  GE was off a few cents on about average volume.  Gold fell around $7 as we are just about at the support level of $1450.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I did adjust my order again for the GDX January calls but if support doesn't hold for gold I'll simply cancel it.  The technical indicators for the gold share indices are mid-range.  I do expect some type of rally for gold in the December to January time frame.  Exactly when that will start is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A low VIX, overbought indicators and new all time highs day after day.  What could go wrong here?  I expected a decline back to the break out former resistance at 3025 for the S&P and it never happened.  In hindsight, buying calls on the break out was the proper play.  There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle for a profitable trade somewhere.  The question is will I be able to find it?  Europe and Asia were higher as money continues to find a home in equities around the world.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 

The beat goes on as the Dow added 55 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  It is an overbought market that keeps grinding higher.  How long this lasts is anybody's guess but it's been going on for quite a while.  It is Thanksgiving week and that generally has a positive bias.  The volume today is a surprise but my guess is that all the serious trading for the week is now done.  Players are heading to wherever they're going for the weekend and trading should be thin Wednesday and Friday.  No real US/China trade news although the background noise here is now positive.  Of course that could change on a dime.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold was up around $5 and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  My open order didn't get filled and it appears that I've missed this trade once again.  I did adjust my order again but I wasn't fast enough.  I'm not exactly sure if this is the time to chase things but I'll leave the order out there the rest of the week.  Once again the time was right today for the calls but I just wasn't good enough to pull it off.  My intra-day execution lacks conviction at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I did have a chance to put the GDX trade on today but failed.  But you've got to move on.  The VIX is almost down to the lowest level of this year.  Only one way to go from there I think.  Perhaps I'll focus my attention on the SPY December puts.  However it is probably best to wait until next week to put a trade on since the market will clearly be in holiday mode for the remainder of this week.  So perhaps patience is in order for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Some positive trade news over the weekend and the market responded as the Dow gained 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trying to turn back up.  New all time highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ.  It looks like we'll have a positive holiday week for stocks but of course that could change with the next headline.  But I don't think that it will.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the major stock indices.  Perhaps we'll get a blow off top here but that's just a guess.  I'm still considering the SPY December puts at some point but not just yet.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off $9.  The US dollar finished slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I adjusted my open order again for the GDX January calls.  Any weakness tomorrow should get this order filled but you never know.  I do think that tomorrow is the time to try this idea, if at all.  26 is the key level for GDX and we are almost there.  If that doesn't hold, then the gold shares are probably going to start to really head south.  That is a possibility here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has broken through 12 and remains oversold.  It has been oversold for quite a while and implied that the rally had legs which it has.  But my question is just how much longer do we have?  December can produce some weakness and we saw that last year.  I would not chase things higher here.  There may be a shot at the SPY December puts at some point in this option cycle.  With the extra week already in there, patience for now on that trade.  Plus we could just grind higher as well.  There is no overhead resistance.  I do not expect any type of short squeeze here though.  Gold is getting back to the support at $1450.  I expect it to hold there but that doesn't mean that it will.  I am looking to purchase the GDX January calls tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

The Dow bounced back 109 points today on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tit for tat trade headlines today but no real progress one way or the other.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn back up here.  I'll be looking for a holiday grind higher next week barring an unforeseen surprise.  Perhaps if we see a higher high fro the S&P 500 with a lower RSI reading, I'll try the SPY December puts.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mid-range on the indicators for GDX.  I'd like to see a roll over to the 26 level but the market rarely cooperates.  I may adjust down my open order for the GDX January calls over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators rolled back down in the VIX and that's a plus for the bulls.  The medium term indicators remain oversold but in rallies they can stay that way for weeks.  I am expecting holiday higher prices next week for stocks.  However remaining on the sidelines isn't a bad idea with Thursday off and a Friday shortened session.  I'll do the chart work over the weekend and take it from there.  Asia was higher with the exception of China.  Europe rose too.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 55 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  Not a lot to report about todays action.  We were down from the start, made it back to slightly positive only to drift lower the final couple of hours.  No conviction to the sell off and that's a plus for the bulls.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have plenty of room to go lower but my guess is that we'll turn things around back to the upside soon.  A holiday week is coming and I'd expect some positive market action.  After that, who knows?  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off around $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU shed about 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I adjusted my open order lower for the GDX January calls.  There's plenty of room on the short term indicators here to run lower as well.  Support for GDX at the 26 level and that would be the spot to try and get the open option order filled.  Haven't gotten there yet and if the level doesn't hold you won't want the calls anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX hasn't shown much life here with a mild decline in stocks.  That's a plus.  However we remain at the mercy of the next trade headline either way.  I doubt we'll hear much with Thanksgiving on the horizon but I could be wrong.  To me what we are seeing now is simply a pause before we set new all time highs again.  After that, when we get into December, then it could be more interesting to the downside.  Patience is still advised for now with regards to the SPY trading.  Gold has had a lackluster levitation for the past week and a half.  $1450 is the level to watch there.  Europe and Asia continued lower last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

Some selling today as the Dow fell 112 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to drift lower.  US/China trade worries caused a sell off mid way through the trading session.  However the market found buyers and well off of the lows for the day.  The Fed minutes didn't reveal anything new and there wasn't much market reaction.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock indices.  Perhaps the long awaited decline to the break out point is about to begin.  Or this is just a slight bump in the road to higher prices.  Time will tell.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Still pretty overbought here.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the next trade headline and that's not an easy way to go.  The options trading is hard enough on its own.  I'm probably going to let next weeks holiday pass before I seriously take a look at the SPY options.  Of course I'm keeping an eye on gold and the gold shares.  I'm still leaning bullish there but would need to see a move back to the 26 level on GDX to get interested in the January calls there.  I do have the open order still out there but that can be adjusted if we start to drop on GDX.  However at the rate things are going, it's possible I won't do a trade there as well.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the green.  The summation index is still moving lower but not with any conviction.  No real drivers of price here as the market waits for the next trade or impeachment headline.  We're still way overbought any way you look at it.  I'm patiently waiting for the next SPY trade.  Perhaps waiting until after the holiday week is the way to go here.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar ended flat for the session.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are mid-range.  The XAU is overbought but not completely.  I am leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it if we turn around in gold.  The recent move higher has been lackluster and muted.  Plus it hasn't really gone up much compared to the previous selling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the VIX are converging which usually precedes a big move.  If the VIX rises and volatility picks up we should see stocks fall.  In theory at least.  I'm still not ruling out a return to the break out point of 3025 in the S&P 500.  That would be the spot to try the SPY calls if it actually happens.  Sure you could try the SPY puts soon but trying to pick the top in an extremely overbought market is tough.  There have been plenty of signals and none of them have worked.  There's one ready right now as well.  But the declines have been shallow and just a stop along the way to higher prices.  Europe and Asia were mixed once again.  We'll see if the Fed minutes tomorrow get things going.

The start of a new trading week continues with the same grind higher for stocks.  The Dow rose 31 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways with a downward bias.  Overbought with new all time highs.  The beat goes on.  I'm not sure how much longer this can go on.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle, so there's no hurry to put on a SPY trade.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was about average.  It appears that I have once again missed the GDX call trade.  Not happy about that.  However we have yet to see a robust rise here for the gold shares.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it as necessary if we start to see gold falter.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still waiting for a pull back to the breakout at 3025 for the S&P 500.  I might be waiting forever for that to occur.  With no overhead resistance the market simply continues to gravitate higher.  The low VIX just helps that along.  The favorable seasonal time period is another plus.  If a deal is reached with the US and China trade issue that is actually signed even higher prices could happen.  I will say that sometimes in December there is a decline in the market to set things up for a January rally.  But it's still November and the overbought condition has persisted for weeks on end.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A positive headline on the US/China trade front and the Dow soared 222 points.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average despite option expiration.  The summation index is back to a sideways trend.  We are now getting overbought to the extreme on most of the major stock averages.  How long will this go on?  Usually longer than you can stay solvent according to the old saying.  Retail sales came in where expected.  Next week doesn't have a lot of economic data due out.  The Fed beige book is about the only potential market mover that I see.  Of course we're simply at the mercy of what comes out of the US and China at this point.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $4 on the futures and came up from the lows of the session.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low as the market hits new all time highs.  The market action of the past couple of weeks was a consolidation and not a top.  There's no overhead resistance and I'm not sure just how long this can go on.  The extra week in the December option cycle along with a holiday week thrown in there makes trading the SPY here probably something that should be put on hold.  I'd still love to see a retracement to the break out point but that doesn't appear likely now.  I guess we'll just enjoy the rise up and see how high we can go.  If a trade deal is ever signed, to me that would be the top and time to purchase some puts.  But we still have no idea if and when that will occur.  We'll see what happens over the weekend and go from there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual.  Europe and Asia rallied to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

The market continues to just hang around here as the Dow was off a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index has rolled over but isn't moving steadily down yet.  Most of the major stock indices remain overbought.  We are in a sloppy, slightly upward congestion zone for now.  I do think that whichever way it breaks won't hold for long regardless of the direction.  There are no catalysts long or short here at the moment.  Perhaps the next US/China trade headline will get things going.  Retail sales data is out tomorrow morning, maybe that can get us moving.  It's also options expiration Friday.  GE was flat and the volume was very light.  Gold continued higher as the futures added another $7.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains on light volume.  It appears that I've missed the GDX call trade again but the price velocity here isn't what it was.  So I'm thinking that I still may have a chance here on a decline in the next couple of weeks if it occurs.  The technical indicators are now mid-range for the gold shares.  The limp rally that we've seen in gold isn't impressive and a turn around would not be a surprise.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what the market is waiting here for.  We are either building some type of a short term top or consolidating before breaking out to new all time highs again.  Take your pick.  We'll be rolling into the December option cycle next week and they have an extra week in them.  Therefore premiums will be higher than normal and that makes for even tougher decisions.  We will not remain overbought forever and somewhere in that cycle will be a chance for the SPY December puts to work.  The VIX tried to pop up today but fell back.  We are however working the short term indicators back to the middle of the range.  I still think that any decline will be shallow and stopping at 3025 on the S&P 500 if one ever occurs.  That's my best guess for now.  Europe and Asia were lower once again.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

Back and forth today as the Dow gained 92 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  The summation index is starting to roll over.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the red.  The market seems to be in a churn here as the overbought condition persists.  I really think that some corrective price action is necessary before we go much higher but I cannot rule out a grind upwards during expiration week.  The Fed chairman testimony was a non event.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower.  My thinking on the next SPY trade is to get through this week and we'll take it from there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving my GDX January call trade out there but will adjust it lower if the gold shares start to decline here.  Another run down to the 26 level for GDX should get this trade filled.  But I must admit the background for the precious metal now is not as bullish as it was earlier in the year.  Mentally I'm feeling bit tired, did not sleep well.  We've been in a sideways drift higher for the S&P for the past week and a half.  We have hit new all time highs but the action hasn't been exactly what you'd call robust.  Of course some kind of trade headline out of the blue could get things going either way but we can't take positions based on that.  I still think things need to go lower before we can get going much higher.  A trip back to the former resistance at 3025 would do the trick.  Until then we'll have to wait on the SPY for now.  Gold has been drifting lower for 2 1/2 months.  That has worked off the overbought conditions but there aren't any near term catalysts to move higher that I can see.  That is why I'm willing to go out until January on the gold share calls here.  It would give the trade some time to work.  Bu that also means that would could just continue to drift here as well.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Another mixed day as the Dow was flat on the day with light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 were positive.  My guess is that the market is trying to make up its mind on whether or not to roll over here.  Still short term overbought on all the technical indicators that I look at for the S&P.  That isn't to say that we can't grind higher for the rest of expiration week but a pause is now long overdue.  GE was up a few cents on about average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks and came off of it lows set earlier in the day.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  My open order for the GDX January calls wasn't filled despite hitting my buy price as the low for the session.  This trade now may have been missed if the gold shares continue to climb tomorrow.  My hope is that they trade sideways form here for a while but if the trade has been missed so be it.  I'm not all together certain that the calls here are the right course of action with the recent background negative developments for gold.  But as usual the markets go where they want and anything can happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed chairman speaking in Washington tomorrow and that has the potential to move things.  I'm not exactly sure what to expect there.  Probably more of the status quo.  The VIX remains oversold and continues with rather low readings.  This is a positive for stocks as long as it keeps up.  It also says to me that any decline will be shallow in the near term.  Barring some unforeseen out of the blue headline.  Gold and the gold shares look like they're trying to put in a near term bottom here.  I hope for my sake that it takes more time than today to develop.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag again to start the week as the Dow rose 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 lower.  We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions.  That should occur tomorrow if the signal proves valid.  We sold off hard at the open today with Dow off over 150.  But as has been the case lately the declines are seen as buying opportunities.  It was a partial holiday today with banks and the bond market closed.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold lost another $6 today as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  Oversold now for gold and GDX but not the XAU.  I did place another open order for the GDX January calls but I'm not exactly sure this is the right trade.  I'm leaving it out there though and it could get filled with a bit more of a decline for GDX.  Once again we are at an area technically that has ended the declines in the gold shares before.  However I'm not as confident in the upside from here this time around as the backdrop for higher metals prices isn't as bullish.  That may change with the testimony form the Fed chairman on Wednesday or it may simply further depress price.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and at a low level.  That is why the recent rally hasn't failed.  We had a chance to turn things around there today but it was not to be.  Perhaps the usual bullish options expiration week bias will take hold.  We are overdue for some kind of selling though.  I do think that a trip back to the break out point cannot be ruled out but it is a question of when.  Inflation data due out later in the week along with retail sales on Friday.  Everybody will be back at their desks tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the market action and headlines tonight.  

Sputtering to the upside for the Dow as it gained 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  Remaining overbought here on the technical indicators as we grind our way higher.  New closing all time highs for some of the major stock indices albeit on lighter volume.  I'm still in a cautious mood here for the overall market.  Yes we can grind higher with the VIX at the low level that it is.  But with the narrow breadth I think most of the gains have already been made and the next move should be a drop back to the breakout of 3025 for the S&P 500.  The question is from what level.  At this rate 3100 seems a reasonable upside target.  GE was up another 1/4 on good volume.  A straight line up here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I re-entered my GDX January call trade but it wasn't filled.  I'll go over this idea again on the weekend.  Oversold on GDX but not the XAU.  Gold and silver appear to be breaking down here but the technical indicators are at levels that rewarded purchasing calls in the recent past.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The bond market will be closed on Monday for the holiday.  All others will be open.  Perhaps we'll continue higher into the expiration in a week.  But I do not expect any major move to the upside from here.  I will wait for a pull back to the breakout zone and look to try some SPY calls there if it happens.  Gold looks like it's heading lower here on the weekly chart.  Support there comes in at $1425.  GDX seems to be at the moment of truth since the support there is at 26 and we are practically there.  The weekly chart there looks like it wants to break down although we are oversold but not completely.  Tough call but I'm leaning towards attempting the GDX calls anyway.  More study needs to done over the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A good news headline from the US/China trade talks and the Dow soared 182 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  This month or so rally is now losing steam.  The breadth lately hasn't matched up properly with the price moves higher.  We could drift higher into the expiration next week but a sell off would not surprise me.  Had we rallied into the close today I would have a different narrative.  But things with the market are starting to look tired to me.  We will not stay overbought forever.  The VIX says any decline here won't be huge.  However a pause in the festivities is now overdue.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold got whacked today and was off almost $25.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that the big move forecast by the Bollinger bands is to the downside.  I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  Support for gold comes in at around $1450.  Another day like today and we'll be there.  The gold shares aren't completely oversold yet but should be soon perhaps even by tomorrow.  The fundamentals have now changed for gold it seems as uncertainty on the trade war is waning, rates are no longer going lower, Brexit has been put off again and the US dollar is rising.  I'm still a believer in golf though for the longer term.  I may also re-enter my GDX January call trade tonight after I check the charts again.  At a lower price of course and perhaps a different strike price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I originally thought that we would simply move up into the expiration next week.  The recent price action says that perhaps some decline is due sooner rather than later.  The breadth is narrowing so much that the rally simply cannot go on like this.  I'd certainly like to try some SPY November puts here but don't know if I will.  I do think that the breakout higher is for real though but that doesn't mean that we can't have a move back down to the breakout point at around 3025 for the S&P 500.  So there will be plenty to ponder as we consider what to do overnight.  Europe and Asia rallied on the positive trade war news.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A day of hanging around as the Dow was flat on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  The summation index is beginning to turn sideways.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  Nothing has really changed with the technical indicators.  I view what is going on as a pause before we move up to new highs again.  Things will roll over eventually.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was OK.  Gold bounced back $8 today.  The US dollar finished relatively unchanged.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on light volume.  GOLD reported earnings and had a mild gain for the day.  Still waiting on the big move for gold and the gold shares.  I'm leaving my order in for the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and there's nothing to suggest an imminent return to volatility.  Of course that could change with the next US/China trade headline but even that hasn't had any real effect lately.  The market expects some kind of deal to get signed in the near future.  Unless there's a complete breakdown in talks, that is the expected outcome.  Even if the deal doesn't mean much.  Seven days to go in the November option cycle.  My guess is that the market will at least hold up until expiration.  You cannot underestimate the no overhead resistance scenario.  There's nothing in the way to higher prices in the near term and probably longer.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A mixed bag today but the Dow continued higher.  The most watched index rose 30 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up but we may see a change here soon.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 in negative territory.  The trend remains up but we could see some near term weakness now.  The S&P has moved pretty far from its 50 day moving average but I don't think that a huge decline is about to happen.  We're still overbought on all the short term indicators.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good.  Gold fell today as the futures dropped $25 seemingly out of nowhere.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  It could have been worse for the gold shares but they continue to hold up for now.  NEM dropped on its earnings report.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  Todays gold price action is leading me to believe that the big move coming will be lower instead of higher.  If that's the case there will be no need to try the GDX January calls right now.  It is some thing to keep a close eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'm also physically not 100% with a sore back.  Anything that takes away from the trading concentration is an obstacle that must be overcome.  The VIX was up a bit again today.  As long as it stays below the 16 level the rally will live on in my view.  However some short term weakness would not be out of the question.  Perhaps that will set us up for a try at the SPY November calls going into expiration week.  Just a guess on my part.  The big drop in gold today is a concern for the bulls.  A close below $1475 could take us to $1450 in a hurry.  That would totally negate my outlook for GDX calls here.  Hasn't happened yet but again, it is something to watch very closely.  GOLD is reporting its earnings tomorrow and that could set the tone for the price action in the gold indices tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.     

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 114 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We remain overbought as we have been for weeks.  There's some economic data due this week but not a lot.  There's also some earnings to deal with but the bulk of companies have reported.  The market has broken out, the volume is decent and there is no overhead resistance.  Expect higher prices going forward.  GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume.  Overbought here as well.  Gold finished flat on the day, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  NEM reports tomorrow followed by GOLD on Wednesday.  This should move the gold shares indices one way or the other.  I've left my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit higher today with a market rally.  That usually is a sign of some weakness ahead.  I don't think I'll be able to trade it though.  The most recent time this occurred, we were only down for a day.  Plus with new all time highs being made on a daily basis, it's hard to be bearish here.  Perhaps if I get a better signal in the days ahead a trade might present itself in the SPY.  The Bollinger bands remain tight for gold and something big will happen there soon in my view.  I'm still assuming that it will be to the upside.  Time will tell on that.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report was a bit better than expected and the market liked what it saw.  The Dow climbed 301 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  Overbought and have been for weeks.  No overhead resistance for the major averages.  We're hitting new all time highs on the major stock indices.  My idea for the SPY November puts was wrong.  It might be appropriate as we move forward but it would be hard to buck the trend here.  The market had chances to sell off this week but it didn't.  That probably got rid of a lot of the selling and there are only buyers left.  Shorts have to be covered as well.  No overhead resistance is a huge factor too.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up a buck as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  The gold shares are overbought but there doesn't seem to be any sellers left there either.  We will get earnings form GOLD and NEM next week.  That should move things either way for GDX.  My open order for the GDX January calls looks like it will not be filled.  I may have to adjust things again here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX stays oversold and that means the market is in rally mode.  No telling how long this condition will last.  All the way until this months expiration?  I certainly don't know.  The US/China trade tariffs have moved to the background.  The US presidents pending impeachment hearings haven't affected stocks.  The postponement of Brexit has elicited a yawn.  The market is ignoring most everything and moving higher.  You cannot get in the way of that.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  But we are in bullish mode for the foreseeable future.  The positive seasonality is another plus.  Asia was mixed with Europe higher.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

The market traded lower to end the month as the Dow fell 140 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This should start to turn the summation index sideways.  I don't think that this is the beginning of a huge decline.  The market came up from the worst levels of the day.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow either.  Of course things could change with the reaction to the jobs report tomorrow so we'll see.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I might still consider the SPY November puts before expiration.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  Gold was up over $15 as the US dollar was lower.  The US house also voted for impeachment hearings against the president.  Those are possible reasons for todays rise in the precious metal.  The XAU added 2 1/3, while GDX climbed almost 3/4.  Volume was good to the upside and this could be the beginning of the huge move projected by the tight Bollinger bands.  If so it is something worth chasing despite the short term overbought condition of the gold shares.  It looks like I may have missed it here again.  My open order remains out there for the GDX January calls but it is far from being hit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today but we'll know more if it is real after tomorrow.  To me it seems as though we are in a drift upward for stocks.  Of course this will eventually end but I don't think right now is the time.  I could be wrong.  If gold and the gold shares continue to rise tomorrow I may just have to jump on board.  There is the potential for something big there in my view if we continue higher.  As for the S&P 500, the price action at the end of the day says that we are not going to simply drop from here.  If we closed near the lows it's a different story.  Let's see how things go tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll watch for the market reaction to the employment report tomorrow and take it from there. 

The market rallied on the Fed as the Dow rose 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We were lower for much of the session pre-Fed but then moved up in the final two hours.  Rates were lowered again and chairman Powell afterward said what the market wanted to hear.  The S&P remains short term oversold and staying that way.  It looks like we could see some more rally tomorrow on the AAPL and FB earnings that were announced after the bell.  I canceled my orders for the SPY November puts.  We've broken the resistance and the volume is decent.  Markets can simply stay overbought for extended periods of time and that is the situation we find ourselves in today.  I may still try the SPY puts again before the end of the week or early next week.  GE was up a buck on extremely heavy volume.  The street liked the earnings.  Gold bounced around on the Fed today.  The futures finally finished with a gain of $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares sold off but came back up off of their lows after the Fed speech.  More overbought than oversold here but not dramatically so.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to drop and remains oversold.  This is no doubt positive for stocks but it can't go on forever.  Regardless, the S&P should continue to rise with declines probably being shallow as long as the VIX remains below the 16 level.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower today but both came up form the lows of the session.  The breadth is the only thing lacking in this run to new highs for the market.  At some point that will catch up with the rally but the question is when?  We've still got the jobs report on Friday to digest but at this rate it will be viewed as a positive no matter what the numbers are.  I'm not sure why I don't trust this rally but I don't.  Technically, the picture is positive despite being overbought for so long.  I'll look things over again tonight.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow fell 19 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow led by a decline in the NASDAQ.  I'm still considering the SPY November puts if we get some strength tomorrow.  The market remains short term overbought.  A lot hinges on what the Fed has to say tomorrow.  We'll also get earnings from Facebook and Apple after the bell.  Google disappointed today and that could be a harbinger of things to come.  Or not.  The VIX remains low in market rally mode and is oversold.  So there are plenty of crosscurrents that could lead things to go either way.  I will probably wait for the Fed announcement and short any rally out of that.  If we drop beforehand, I'll sit things out.  GE was flat on average volume.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving my order out there for the GDX January calls.  We'll need to see some more decline there to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  About ready to attempt a trade in the SPY here but it will be risky.  We've broken out above resistance for the S&P but it hasn't been robust.  That could change tomorrow and that is one of the risks.  Good earnings after the bell is another risk.  Add the employment report due out on Friday and you can see how the risks for a trade here either way pile up.  I am pretty sure that if things set up for me though I'll pull the trigger.  Some of my indicators are topping out and pointing towards at least a short term decline.  We've remained overbought for a while now and although that could continue, I'm betting that it won't.  The market is at least due to take a rest.  I could be wrong though but one thing is for sure.  Tomorrows market action will tell a lot.  Asia was generally higher with Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and take it from there.  

The Dow was higher today and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs.  The most watched index rose 132 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We got a signal on Friday for a big move according to the McClellan oscillator.  Today qualifies as that.  We have broken above resistance for the S&P but the volume was lacking and I'm considering getting some SPY November puts.  In fact today may have been the day to do that.  If we open down tomorrow, it may be too late for the puts.  Or I could simply be wrong here and the rally keeps going.  Short term overbought still and staying that way.  It should be an interesting week, with the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Sort term overbought here as well.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower as well.  The XAU was down 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  The price action we saw on Friday foretold the move lower today for gold and the gold shares.  However the Bollinger bands remain tight for these instruments.  A big move is coming in either direction here.  I did once again place an open order for the GDX January calls which I am leaving out there.  But if GDX breaks the 26 level, I'll have to cancel the order because that would mean that the big move in gold will be lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit higher today despite the nice move in stocks.  This sometimes means that lower prices are coming.  We've been short term overbought for quite some time now for the S&P.  I'm expecting the indicators to move lower at some point during the November option cycle.  Perhaps with the events of this week we'll finally get a catalyst for lower prices.  But we do have the over the counter prices breaking out to new highs as well so we may just trend higher with no break.  RUT continues to lag though and that is a concern for the bulls.  With all the news that's about to break this week, staying on the sidelines is a strategy as well.  However sticking with the technical indicators is the way that we'll go.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  We'll be watching the volume closely form here.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  It seems as though there is a worldwide shift into stocks going on at the moment.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

The market moved higher today as the Dow gained 152 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We almost closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It did set anew intra-day high but then backed off.  Good earnings and positive US/China feedback propelled stocks higher.  We are still short term overbought for the major averages.  In rallies we remain that way.  If we get through the resistance here on good volume the market will go much higher.  If we struggle our way from here, I may try the SPY November puts ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  The VIX continues lower and that means the rally has some staying power in my view.  However I would not rule out a short sell off if the news on Wednesday isn't what the market wants.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar was up a bit today as well.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was good again.  The gold shares finished off of their highs as well.  The price action today was puzzling to me and I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  We are approaching short term overbought for the gold shares.  We have broken the down trend lines of resistance for gold and the gold shares.  But the action isn't exactly as robust as you would like to see.  I'll be looking things over the weekend to determine what to do next.  It appears that we may have to head back to the resistance line just broken before a meaningful rally ensues.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like everything is lining up for new all time closing highs next week for the S&P.  If so, I'll be paying close attention to the volume and the breadth.  The wild card is the Fed announcement on Wednesday along with the chairmans speech afterward.  I will probably wait for the GDX trade after that as well.  The TRAN had a good day today with good volume.  Perhaps that will lead the Dow higher as well.  RUT had a positive session as well.  These indices do remain pretty overbought though and that won't last forever.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow fell 28 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 both showed gains.  Overbought and staying that way for now.  Earnings have come in OK so far and they are not having a negative effect.  Waiting on the Fed next week at this point.  Very close to new all time highs on some of the stock indices and we should see them soon.  No headlines out of the blue.  GE was off almost 1/4 on lighter volume.  Gold found buyers today, the futures were up $10 and we're back over the $1500 level.  The US dollar rose as well.  The XAU climbed two points, while GDX added almost 3/4.  We have just risen slightly above the declining tops line for the gold share indices that started in the beginning of September.  The break of that line would put us back in rally mode for the gold shares.  It appears to be in the cards at this point.  I did adjust my open order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled.  I my adjust it again tomorrow.  This would be one of those times where it may pay to chase the move.  Not that doesn't really fit in with my guess of no change in rates on Wednesday.  However the charts provide much better information than my guesses.  If for some reason the gold shares drop again tomorrow, I will have to rethink what I'm doing.  But it looks like the rally in precious metals is about to pick up again right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and the rally in the overall market continues.  We remain comfortably below the 16 level and as long as that continues the rally is on.  Perhaps the Fed will lower the fed funds rate again next week but I certainly don't think that it has to.  I suppose I'll wait and see how things look technically before the announcement on Wednesday and take it from there.  If we get a weak break to new all time highs in the S&P, I'll consider the SPY November puts.  Gold on the other hand, looks ready to begin another climb if it can get above the declining tops line in the next few sessions.  Perhaps even tomorrow if we get some upside follow through.  My hope is that I'm not too late but that may be the case.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to simply hang around here, just shy of new all time highs.  Is it a top or a consolidation before we break out?  The Dow rose 45 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We remain short term overbought for the major averages.  Bad news for the semiconductor sector didn't stick.  The market climbed in the final hour.  Yesterdays bearish candlesticks look like they're a precursor for sideways action instead of a decline.  No new market moving headlines today.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added a point while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  I'm still trying to figure out which way the precious metals are going to go here.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  We do have the Fed in a week and I do not think that they will be cutting rates again at this particular meeting.  That is my best guess as of today.  That would not be bullish for the precious metals and I am considering canceling my order before the announcement.  I could be wrong of course but I have to consider all the possibilities.  If the Fed stands pat I do believe that we'd see a sell off in stocks.  I my try the SPY November puts ahead of the meeting if we continue to be overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains below the 16 level and volatility has taken a break for now.  That isn't the usual October pattern but it is for now.  So for now it looks like I'll just let this week go by and try to trade off of the Fed next week.  Europe and Asia were mixed with muted price action despite the Brexit delay.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

Lower today as the Dow seemed to begin falling when news of another Brexit failure hit the wires.  The Dow fell 39 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  The major indices remain short term overbought.  Although the averages declined the advance/declines were positive.  This tells me that we are not at the brink of disaster and my original thesis of getting to new all time highs for the S&P 500 is still intact.  It may take longer than this week now though.  The TRAN and RUT both closed higher today and that is a plus.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  Perhaps a small flight to safety move in these instruments after the Brexit delay.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  There is still the implication of a big move coming in precious metals.  I'm still looking for that to be positive but it really could go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick charts for some of the major stock averages now have bearish engulfing patterns.  We'll see if this plays out to lower prices in the days ahead.  The VIX rose today on the late sell off.  It remains below the line of demarcation that I'm putting at the 16 level.  As long as that holds, I'm looking for higher prices.  Not SPY trades in mind right now.  If we do get down to oversold, I may try the SPY November calls.  However, as you can see by the price action today, we're always at the mercy of the next headline.  It's just part of the game that has gotten more common than it used to be.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  That probably will change tonight with the Brexit drama.  It also could cause a rally in gold and the US dollar.  But we'll just have to see how things play out as the story unfolds.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.