Well so much for the early summer doldrums as volatility returned today.  The Dow went into free fall at the open and dropped over 150 points.  We then climbed all the way back to positive territory only to roll over again.  The most watched index fell 116 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm not sure what to make of things here.  Deeply oversold on the McClellan oscillator most likely after todays action.  That would imply another bounce due sooner rather than later.  But the breadth has been pretty negative in the last couple of weeks.  The rally is most likely over in my opinion , as I stated here last week.  I could be wrong and often am but maybe not this time.  We'll see.  GE was off 20 cents on lighter volume.  We need to get solidly over $24 to be bullish here.  Gold continues lower, the futures fell 9 bucks today despite a very weak US dollar.  Gold and the dollar are not in sync and that is a problem for the gold bulls here.  The gold shares are heading lower as well.  The XAU dropped 3 1/3.  ABX down 3/4, GG shed 7/8 and NEM lost over a buck.  Volume remains light here.  Gold is still above the crash lows and the gold shares are under performing.  Not a positive picture for my October ABX calls as they remain just barely in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see where we go from here as a case could be made for either way.  Today the dip was bought and then sold again.  But we are oversold on some technicals as well.  My idea for the OEX puts is now too late unless we get a decent set-up in the next week.  Any trade has more risk now if it is in the June cycle with only 8 days to go.  Gold remains unloved and not of interest to anybody at this time.  The gold shares were turned around at their 50 day moving averages.  They need to hold their most recent lows as well for the bullish cause.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there. 

A lackluster start to the trading week as the Dow fell 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Not much to say about todays trading except that I hope it's not the start of a trend.  By that, I mean the summer doldrums arriving early.  Light volume, low volatility trading sessions are common usually during the summer months.  They are not welcome for those of us taking outright options positions.  9 days to go in the June option cycle.  If we drift higher in the next couple of days, I might try the OEX puts.  GE was off a bit on average volume.  Still no trades in mind here.  Gold was up a couple of bucks as the US dollar was off a bit as well.  Quiet trading here.  The XAU was up 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on light volume.  My October ABX calls are still in the black but I will have to seriously consider getting rid of them before the summer begins.  Directionless trading will eat away at the option premiums, including ABX.  Perhaps I'll be able to buy them back later in the summer.  Just a thought for today, we'll see what happens going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We got the oversold bounce at the end of last week for the stock indices and kind of stalled out today.  We'll see if the bounce continues tomorrow.  Some economic data out this week.  Probably the most watched will be the retail sales report on Thursday.  Gold didn't do much today and it could be a week of sideways non movement but that's just a guess at this point.  Gold hasn't moved in line with the US dollars recent decline and that isn't really positive.  The crash lows have held up so far though.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.  

A huge rally today on the jobs report as the Dow gained 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just over 2 to 1 positive.  The bounce from 1600 on the S&P 500 has been pretty good and that was expected with such a negative oversold reading on the McClellan oscillator.  The employment report really didn't have any positive surprises.  But the market was so stretched out in one direction, it had to snap back in the other direction.  Will we go on to new highs from here?  I don't know but I don't think we will.  The volume today was light, despite an over 200 point move higher.  The market breadth wasn't all that great for such a huge move either.  The one thing that confuses me is the depth of the recent momentum decline without a real substantial move down in price.  I'll keep an eye on things going forward of course.  GE was up 1/2 on average volume and looks like it wants to go to new highs for the year.  Perhaps GE will provide some clues on the overall market direction.  We'll see where it goes next week.  Gold got clobbered today, off $32 on the futures and $5 more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was just slightly higher today, reflecting a muted reaction to the jobs report.  The XAU sank 4 1/4.  ABX and NEM were off 7/8, while GG fell 1 1/3.  Volume was light.  Not a good week for the gold shares and perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for in the coming weeks.  There is not catalyst at the moment for higher prices.  My October ABX calls are somehow still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the employment report out of the way.  The stock indexes were very oversold and we are now working off that condition.  Could this be the start of a summer rally that takes us to new highs?  Perhaps but I'm not sold on that idea yet.  However the markets will go where they want.  Gold had a very negative day.  It needs to hold above the crash lows of about $1350 or so for the bullish cause.  It has so far.  Maybe we are building an extended base for a move higher in the next few months.  That's a guess as usual.  Technically gold got overbought when we moved above $1400 and we are now working off that condition.  2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  I might try an OEX trade if a signal appears, even though I just missed the OEX call trade this week.  I'll try the puts if we get short term overbought.  Plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We got the overdue bounce today as the Dow gained 80 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive.  The McClellan oscillator was so blown out to the downside, it was reaching levels rarely seen.  The S&P 500 made it down to the 50 day moving average and the important 1600 level.  Yes, the decline could be over here but we don't know that just yet.  I did place an overnight order for some OEX calls but canceled it when we broke 1600 on the S&P 500.  The order would not have been filled if I left it open anyway because we started moving higher from there.  My reasoning for the trade was that a bounce was severely overdue.  I'm not sure what happens from here, with tomorrows employment report looming large.  The 50 day moving average has held for now.  GE came off of its lows on good volume and ended the day up a nickel.  GE has been in a drift for 3 weeks.  No trades in mind there.  Gold rose $17 today and fell back a touch in the aftermarket.  The price action in gold was not as positive as I would have liked to see, considering that the US dollar was absolutely crushed today.  The greenback fell over a point.  Perhaps we'll see a weak jobs number tomorrow.  The XAU rose 1 3/8 which wasn't much of a reaction either.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on average volume.  These issues are stalling at their 50 day moving averages.  Tomorrow should be interesting here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to pay close attention to the stock indices reaction to the employment numbers.  Perhaps there will still be a chance to play the bounce if we get a sell off early.  That's simply a guess at this point.  Anything could happen.  However with the momentum clearly oversold to the extreme, some kind of upside is expected.  I might try the OEX calls if the opportunity presents itself but it's risky.  2 weeks and a day left for the June option cycle.  Gold should have moved higher today in my opinion with the sell off in the US dollar.  Perhaps traders are waiting on the employment report or maybe there just isn't any interest in owning gold here.  We are just getting through the down trend line that has been in effect since mid-April.  Better price appreciation and volume will be needed to confirm a break through here.  Maybe tomorrow.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow our lead higher overnight while we wait for tomorrows numbers.

To the downside as the momentum run to the upside has run its course.  Those higher momentum moves never end well and we are seeing that is the case now.  The Dow fell 217 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 negative.  Oversold and staying there now for the stock indices.  Overdue for a bounce and when it comes it will be a big one.  But it won't matter much.  The trend has changed.  The market is speaking to us and we must listen.  My guess is that whatever kind of decline the market has here, we are just at the beginning.  It could take weeks and months.  We are getting too oversold on the McClellan oscillator not to have a huge up day soon.  Perhaps the employment report on Friday will be the catalyst.  Regardless, the rally has ended in my opinion.  GE was off 1/3 on good volume.  No technical damage on the daily chart here.  No trades in mind here either.  Gold was only up a buck on the futures today despite some weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all finished the trading session little changed.  Volume was light.  No interest in the gold shares today despite the overall market decline.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are now seeing what was inevitable for the stock indices.  It's an unwinding of the excesses of the momentum upside move.  It will probably take a while to complete.  The Fed easy money policy will be coming to an end sooner rather than later.  Market participants are finally beginning to factor this in.  We'll flip flop around from time to time to be sure.  But I doubt we will see a return to constant higher stock prices anytime soon.  We now have the prior top as upside resistance.  Gold needs to make a stand here.  I'd ideally like to see a solid upside week print out on the charts.  However sideways may be the case for now because there doesn't seem to be much buying interest in anything at the moment.  We'll have to see what happens in the next couple of days.  We'll keep a close eye for downside reactions in the foreign markets tonight as we wait for tomorrows US session ahead of the employment numbers on Friday.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 76 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are oversold and not getting the expected bounce.  This is troublesome.  The McClellan oscillator is in the negative 200's.  This doesn't happen very often and it usually comes in the midst of a huge decline.  The decline we've seen thus far is anything but huge.  So we are either on the verge of something big going lower or we are going to rally up to new highs as we come off of this oversold condition.  That's my guess at the moment.  The employment report on Friday could be the catalyst for a volatile session.  It's all conjecture for now.  I'm now undecided on which way to go.  GE was flat on average volume.  GE has held up rather well here compared to the overall stock market.  Perhaps that is a clue in what to expect going forward.  Gold headed back down today, off $15 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU dropped 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all off around 1/2.  Volume was light.  Overbought on the gold shares and I suppose sideways from here for a while is the best we can hope for.  We should see some movement one way or the other here on Friday as well.  Which way is the question.  I'm still holding on to the October ABX calls and they are still showing a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Pretty oversold on some of the stock indices technicals yet the price action has not been drastic to the downside.  I'm not sure what to make of it.  I may have to stay on the sidelines with regard to the OEX options.  However there will be some kind of opportunity available I believe.  I think gold is deciding which way to go here and as long as it stays above the crash lows I'll feel OK about the ABX call trade.  But anything can happen in this game.  June still has 2 1/2 weeks left in the option cycle.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

A bounce was due and perhaps even overdue as the Dow gained 138 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative though, reflecting the overall market weaker than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator was blown out to the downside and positive price action was expected.  We were also oversold on a short and medium term basis.  I would still expect more near term upside.  The question is what happens after that?  The Dow being the leader here isn't bullish.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm inclined to look at the OEX puts before the release of the employment report.  We will have to see how the market trades ahead of that.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Strength in GE leads me to believe that the decline is nothing to worry about.  So there are mixed signals for the stock indices going forward.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold had a good day on a very weak US dollar.  The precious metal futures were up $18 today.  The XAU rose 2 7/8.  ABX and NEM had slight fractional gains, while GG was up 3/4.  All of these issues finished off of the highs for the day.  Volume was light to average.  I would have liked to have seen better price action for these three.  They are all hesitating at the 50 day moving average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices held their own today.  It's possible that we will make a run back to the old highs but I certainly don't know.  Friday looms large for now.  Perhaps if we head higher into Friday, I'll try the June OEX puts.  Depends on the breadth of the advance if we go that way.  Gold had a good day which erased the losses of this past Friday.  Follow through to the upside is imperative for the bullish cause near term.  If the dollar remains weak that would be supportive for gold prices.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  We'll watch the action overnight and take it from there.     

An interesting end to the month of May as the Dow fell 209 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  Still oversold and even more so.  The summation index continues lower and we will take our cues from there.  I'd expect a bounce on Monday but the breadth of the market has changed.  Momentum moves never end well and I think we are seeing that now or will see that here in the near future.  There is no sense of a trend change and the complacency is still obvious.  I'm considering the OEX puts ahead of next weeks employment report.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Nothing doing there.  Gold fell today as well.  The futures were off around $20 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar bounced back a bit today.  The XAU fell 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  Considering the drop in gold, the gold shares performed quite well.  That is bullish for the gold shares moving forward.  June is historically a poor month for the price of gold though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are very oversold after todays price action and a bounce to the upside will be expected on Monday.  I am not exactly sure what is happening here but perhaps the market is beginning to factor in the end of easy money.  It won't be pretty if that is the case.  The end of easy money will occur at some point though.  We'll stick with the technicals and they are oversold short and medium term for stocks.  The price action after a bounce will tell us a lot about where we're headed.  Gold fell back today and we could be headed to more sideways action here.  That's a guess as usual.  As long as the crash lows hold, I'm still constructive moving forward for gold and the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  The month ended up pretty good for ABX and that was what I was looking for.  However the markets will go where they want.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

A slight bounce in the Dow today as it gained 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator reached a very oversold level yesterday so some type of positive relief was due.  The stock indices are still on the oversold side here though.  However the anemic reaction to the oversold condition has me concerned for the bullish cause here.  I'm guessing that we should move higher in the coming few days but that may be an opportunity to purchase some OEX June puts.  We'll see.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  We've had a nice run since the end of April for GE.  Perhaps it's time for a pause.  Gold rallied again on the weaker US dollar.  The precious metal futures rose $20 as the dollar had another very weak day.  The XAU came to life again with a gain of about 5 1/2.  ABX and GG rose 1 1/2, while NEM tacked on 1 1/4.  Volume was good for the gold shares implying that the move higher has legs.  My October ABX calls are solidly back in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The GDP revision was only adjusted down slightly but that was enough to start the day with a rally.  But the day ended on a weak note and the tone of the market seems to have changed.  That could all change with a couple of solid up days.  However the summation index is still trending down and that cannot be ignored.  Gold is right at a declining tops line on the daily chart that began in mid April.  The gold shares have already broken through that line and we'll see if gold itself can follow.  A strong close of the month tomorrow for ABX will put that trade in a better position going forward.  Money has flowed into the gold shares the past couple of days.  We'll see if that continues.  We'll watch the foreign trading overnight and close out the month tomorrow.     

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 106 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 lower.  The summation index continues lower and we should probably take our cues from that.  We've stopped going straight up for now but whether that means a decent decline is in the works is the question.  Perhaps we are in the beginning of some type of distribution top but that's a guess as usual.  The momentum to the upside will need to reappear rather quickly to be relevant again.  Still short term oversold on the stock indices here and waiting for some type of upside action.  Maybe tomorrow.  GE was up a bit on lighter volume.  Basically sideways since we saw new highs.  No trades in mind here.  Gold bounced back, up $12 on the futures.  The US dollar reversed and gave back all the gains from yesterday.  The XAU showed some life, gaining 4 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a point or so.  I'd like to see some kind of upside for gold going into the end of the month.  2 days left, so we'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The GDP revision is due tomorrow and that should provide some market direction early.  I'm expecting some type of upside regardless, due to the oversold market condition.  If we continue to decline then I would say that the game has changed.  Gold is still holding above the crash lows for now.  A rally from here would certainly help my October ABX calls.  An end of the week close for gold above $1400 would be a step in the right direction I believe.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We started off the week with a positive day as the Dow gained 106 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We were up over 200 during the session.  Not exactly sure what that means.  The summation index continues lower.  Perhaps we are forming some sort of distribution top but that has yet to be seen.  The majority is still bullish here and until we see some type of decline the trend remains up.  It's a short trading week leading up to the end of the month on Friday.  Not a lot of economic data, with the GDP revision probably the most watched.  GE was up a bit on good volume.  We closed off of the highs here as well.  No trades in mind for GE right now.  Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong day.  We really still need gold to hold the crash lows for the bullish cause.  The XAU only fell 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves on lighter volume.  My October ABX calls are at break-even.  Some kind of rally in ABX to close the month is really needed here for this trade to have a decent chance of working out in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are now oversold for a change.  Not drastically but enough to support some type of rally.  Gold had a down session and if the US dollar continues its rally that will not bode well for the price of gold.  The fundamentals seem to favor a stronger US dollar at this time.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and go from there.

We had a sell-off early but then a steady grind back to the upside as the Dow finished the day with a gain of 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The technicals for the stock indices have rolled over but we are not getting much of a decline.  The summation index is heading lower and prices are holding up rather well.  Perhaps the price action this week is simply a pause in the momentum run up.  It sure feels that way.  Money is buying whatever dips we get.  We'll have a long weekend to figure out a game plan for next week.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  The technicals have rolled over here as well after hitting a new yearly high.  No trades in mind for GE.  Gold fell $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit weaker today as well.  The XAU was off 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter volume.  ABX was actually halted from trading today for 3 hours due to an unfavorable ruling and fine from one of its mines in Chile.  Considering the stock did not just fall apart when it re-opened is a good sign going forward in my opinion.  Of course owning the ABX October calls does sometimes create a bullish bias when I look at this stock.  At any rate gold still needs to hold above the crash lows and it has so far.  Some type of rally would be nice but a sideways consolidation is another possible outcome as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A down week for the stock indexes but it isn't a negative trend yet.  The medium term technicals here remain overbought.  Unless we get a strong break to the downside, the trend remains up.  But we have to keep in mind that this has been a momentum driven move.  When it does end, it won't be pretty.  Gold has the opposite picture.  Medium term oversold here and below the 200 day moving average.  Same story for the gold shares.  Perhaps buying the longer term ABX calls was a mistake.  I still need to see where we close out the month there to determine my time frame for selling them.  They are still somehow slightly in the black.  Plenty to think about over the extended weekend.  But right now it's a Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another down day but we finished well off of the lows.  The Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Working off the extreme overbought condition here.  So far this still looks like just a blip in the momentum rally.  The summation index has turned lower though.  No trend lines have been violated to the downside yet on the stock indices.  So we will have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for now.  I expect a slow pre-holiday Friday session tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  We've fallen back after making new yearly highs.  That isn't really a bullish scenario.  A better picture would have been even higher prices.  I'll keep an eye on it because GE sometimes gives clues to the overall market direction.  Gold rallied back up today, gaining almost $25 on the futures.  The US dollar had a very weak day for a change.  The XAU didn't follow gold today and only managed a 1/2 point gain.  That isn't bullish for the gold shares going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We could be in for a sideways malaise for the gold shares if this keeps up.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Volatility has somewhat returned to the stock indexes with the anticipation of easy money from the Fed coming to an end.  It hasn't stopped the money flow yet but eventually the manipulation of interest rates will be coming to an end.  This week is the first taste of what will happen when it does.  We also should not forget this is a momentum driven rally in stocks which never ends pretty.  So we will keep a close eye to the ongoing developments as usual.  Gold has held up well this week but the gold shares are lagging once again.  Could be a long summer for my ABX October call trade if that keeps up.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and then close out the week tomorrow. 

Plenty of Fed speak and we got some volatility.  The Dow fell 80 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  It was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened much higher on the stock indices.  Could this be the start of some kind of pullback?  That remains to be seen.  If you want buy a dip, we got one today.  The Fed might start to ease up on the easy money that has helped fuel the rally and that had the players spooked today.  We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside tomorrow.  Todays action should turn the summation index lower.  One day doesn't make a trend though.  GE was up 1/4 on heavy volume.  We made a new yearly high today for GE.  We did take out the $23.75 level but finished well off of the highs for the day.  The fact that GE made a new high today says that a decline in the overall market is not imminent.  We'll see.  Gold had a one day reversal to the downside as well, as the futures dropped $10.  Gold was up over $1400 early on.  The US dollar was stronger on the Fed.  The XAU gained a point but was well off the highs for the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on heavy volume.  The gold shares held up pretty well today despite the negative tone.  That could bode well going forward.  I'm still waiting to see how the month of May ends up for ABX.  That will determine how long I stay in that trade.  My October ABX calls are still slightly in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed out of the way and we will have to see how things pan out from here.  2 trading days left before a long holiday weekend.  I don't expect any huge decline to take place here.  The market was falling today but came back in the last half hour.  Perhaps this stalls the upside momentum for a couple of days.  Or maybe the long awaited correction is about to begin.  It's really all a guess right now.  Gold did not have a positive session but it could have been worse.  As long as we stay above the crash lows the potential double bottom in gold remains.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays US price action.       

The Dow gained 52 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall stock indices were weaker than the Dow.  Waiting on the Fed here.  Tomorrow should be a market moving day.  Which way is the question.  The summation index continues higher.  Still no overhead resistance for the stock indexes.  Overbought, staying there and that condition persists.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  We made it to $23.75 today and we'll see what happens from here.  A break to the upside would be bullish for the overall market.  Gold fell back today as the futures lost 6 bucks and about that again in the aftermarket.  The US dollar finished the day a bit higher.  The XAU fell 2 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  No follow through to yesterdays gains in gold.  My ABX October calls are slighty in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Bernanke will blab and the Fed minutes will be released tomorrow.  So there is potential for some volatility.  There has been no stopping this rally and probably tomorrow won't matter either.  It is a momentum driven move.  Gold is still trying to hold the recent crash lows and so far it has.  There are possible positive RSI divergences on the gold charts.  If things hold together here, some type of longer term rally in gold could take place.  We'll have watch what happens here closely.  We'll see what happens in the overseas markets and take it from there.

A one day reversal to the downside for the Dow today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  I'm not sure this is the end of the rally and it probably isn't.  The momentum run to the upside won't be stopped by just one day of decline.  Still overbought on all time frames.  Summation index still to the upside.  We've got Bernanke flapping his gums on Wednesday and the release of the Fed minutes that day too.  So Wednesday looks like the day for some market movement.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  We'll need to see a solid break above $23.75 to get bullish here.  Gold had a one day reversal to the upside as it sold off early and then came all the way back.  The precious metal futures gained $20 as the US dollar was weaker on the session.  Gold needs to hold up here for a successful retest of the crash lows.  So far so good but it remains to be seen if the lows will hold.  The XAU rose 5 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up more than a buck on good volume.  My ABX October calls made it back into the black.  Would really like to see ABX close out the month of May with a solid gain for these calls to work longer term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps tomorrow will be a waiting game on the Fed.  Not much else to report for today.  Gold had a nice comeback for the bulls today but gold can be very volatile in both directions.  This weeks action is important.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets and take it from there.     

It's like a runaway train as the Dow continues to climb.  The most watched index gained 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No overhead resistance for the stock indices.  I keep thinking that a pause is in order due to the extreme overbought condition and that just isn't happening.  It's been quite a bull market run so far this year.  Money continues to flow into stocks.  It is a massive momentum driven run.  Who knows how high it will go?  I'm done guessing.  When I see some kind of top in place, I'll look to play the OEX puts.  Nothing looks like a top yet.  GE was up almost 1/4 on good volume.  Overbought here as well but that doesn't seem to mean anything.  No trades in mind here.  Gold took a hit thanks to the much stronger US dollar today.  The gold futures lost over 20 bucks and more in the aftermarket.  The XAU fell 3 1/3.  ABX down 2/3, GG dropped a buck and NEM shed 3/4.  Volume was good.  We are at the retest of the crash lows for gold and I am assuming that they will hold.  Todays price action looks like they won't.  Next week will be very important for gold.  My October ABX calls are now in the red.  Obviously I should have sold them at a profit on the first snap back and then bought them back here.  But I decided to just keep them.  Everything is in rally mode with the exception of the gold shares.  Another key factor here in my mind is how ABX closes out the month of May.  That close has longer term implications for the direction of ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There isn't much more I can say about the stock indexes that I haven't already said.  Overbought on every time frame and it doesn't seem to matter.  The runaway train analogy is appropriate because when the train goes off the tracks, it isn't going to be pretty.  But who knows when that happens?  The sell in May and go away theory isn't holding up so far this year.  How much longer can the rally in stocks go on?  Of course I'm sitting here with a losing position in the ABX calls.  My trading confidence isn't what it used to be and I have been in a trading slump for months.  Money is continuing to come out of gold as the US dollar looks like it is breaking out to fresh multi-week highs.  As I said before, this will be an important week for the price of gold.  It needs to hold the crash lows or it will be heading to $1300 or lower.  I'm not sure what will happen.  There was a time when a stronger US dollar led to weaker stock prices.  I suppose during a rip roaring bull run, it doesn't really matter.  Enjoy the ride.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We hit new highs today and then sold off as the Dow fell 42 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  About as overbought as you can get when we started the trading session, so some of that has been relieved with todays action.  But we're still short and medium term overbought.  Todays inflation data was benign and the economic numbers were a bit weaker than expected.  It has been quite a momentum rally and one down day doesn't change that.  But this can't go on forever and we are in the seasonal period of weakness for stocks.  Momentum moves can go on longer than you think but in my opinion the upside is limited from here in the near term.  I could be wrong.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold continues to weaken, losing another 10 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar bounced around but finished the day basically unchanged.  The XAU was up 1/3 as the gold shares are now outperforming the metal itself.  That is bullish for them going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  We'll see how the week closes out for these issues.  My October ABX calls continue to lose ground but are still slightly in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration Friday coming up.  It's been a positive week so far.  Nothing has changed for the stock indices.  The summation index continues higher.  However I do think a pause is about to be upon us.  Whether it develops into an actual decline remains to be seen.  Whether it even occurs also remains to be seen at this point.  Gold has resumed its decline to test the crash lows.  I'm of the belief that the lows will hold.  Time will tell on that.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

Bouncing around today but the moving higher theme remains intact.  The Dow gained 60 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The momentum remains but it looks like it may be getting weaker here.  Less advancing issues as we move higher now.  But that could change tomorrow.  Still short and medium term overbought.  We've been in that condition for a long time.  It won't last forever.  The economic data today showed no inflation and slightly less economic data measurement than expected.  All news is being construed as bullish for stocks.  Only two days left for the May option cycle.  No OEX trades in mind here as of yet.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Finally made it past the 50 day moving average.  The next upside target is around $23.75.  Gold headed lower today on the stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures dropped $28 during the session and more in the aftermarket.  The retest of the crash lows is the current price scenario.  The XAU fell 4 1/4.  ABX and NEM dropped a buck, while GG lost 1 1/2.  Volume increased to the downside for the gold shares.  My ABX October calls are now just slightly in the black.  I'm still a believer in this trade going further out in time.  However if the crash lows in gold don't hold, this trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still up, up and away for the stock indexes.  The summation index continues higher.  There is no overhead resistance for the stock indices.  These conditions persist and until they change you cannot fight the tape.  Gold is back to the downside in a big way this week.  We will need to see 1350 or so hold this decline or gold will be heading lower.  The way the US dollar is acting here is implying that the crash lows won't hold.  But again, that could all change when we reach those levels.  As always, the markets will go where they want.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.

It's momentum, it's to the upside and that is all we need to know for now.  The Dow gained 123 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We opened higher and kept on going.  New highs all around.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The positive option expiration bias is in place.  I suppose we will see just how far this rally can go.  No sign of a top in the game now but the momentum runs to the upside never end well when they do.  For now we simply enjoy the ride.  GE was up 1/8 or so on average volume.  Still hanging around the 50 day moving average.  GE isn't at a new high and that could be telling going forward.  Or not.  Gold wasn't participating in todays rally as the precious metal futures fell 10 bucks.  The US dollar had a good session to the upside.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The money flows are not to the gold shares right now but at least they aren't going straight down anymore.  I still consider the recent action in the price of gold as the start of a retest of the crash lows.  This process could take a couple of weeks or more.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  New highs in the stock indices sometimes on a daily basis.  There is no overhead resistance.  It continues to be a great rally.  There is no fighting the flow of money into stocks.  Perhaps the 12 year sideways movement in stocks is over.  It sure feels that way.  Gold continues to be unloved but there is plenty of time for the ABX October call trade.  It remains profitable for now.  Plenty of economic data in the next 3 days.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

A mixed bag to start expiration week as the Dow fell 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ had a slight gain while the S&P 500 was flat.  I'm still expecting some type of run up into Fridays option expiration as a positive bias usually exists.  Plenty of economic data out this week as excuses to go one way or the other.  No OEX trades in mind at the moment.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Still making a decision here at the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures and a little more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was little changed on the session.  The XAU fell 2 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all feel at least 1/2 on lighter volume.  Gold has rolled over here and should head down to retest the crash low.  What happens there will be the medium term key on direction.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  We're still over bought on the stock indices.  It looks like the recent price action is a small consolidation before we move higher.  That's my guess for now.  Gold is heading lower near term.  We'll wait it out there for now.  Not much else to report on this slow news spring Monday.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and go from there.   

It was a quiet session for most of the day but we came alive in the final half hour to finish the day with a gain of 35 points on the Dow.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was light.  Still overbought and still moving higher.  I'm still expecting higher prices next week into the May option expiration.  It is a momentum move up for now in the stock indices.  You cannot fight that.  As long as the money continues to flow into equities, the upside is the only way to go.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  GE is still deciding what to do here at its 50 day moving average.  Gold took a hit today as the US dollar had another very strong day.  The gold futures fell over $30.  This is probably the move down to retest the recent crash lows.  I think the lows will hold.  The XAU was only down 1/3.  This is the kind of price action that I'd like to see from the gold shares.  When the relative strength vs. gold is higher for the gold shares, that is bullish going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Buyers came into the gold shares after they sold off early in the day.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks moving higher as the song remains the same.  No overhead resistance.  Momentum runs never end pretty but they can go on for longer than expected.  No end in sight right now.  Gold started to break down again today and we'll see if there is follow through next week.  The stronger dollar was most likely the catalyst.  One week to go in the May option cycle and I doubt I'll have any trades next week.  Plenty of charts to check out over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Really, the stock market can go down too?  As sarcastic as that might sound, it seems to be the prevailing attitude at the moment.  The Dow fell 22 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We're still very overbought both short and medium term for the stock indices.  I've been saying that for quite some time now.  Perhaps we are getting near to some type of consolidation or setback.  However I am still of the thought that the market will run up into the May expiration.  After that, we'll have to wait and see.  The summation index continues higher.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Hesitating here at the 50 day moving average.  The gold futures were off $5 in the regular session, another $15 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar had a very strong day to the upside.  The XAU was off 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were all lower by at least 1/2.  Volume here remains good.  If the US dollar begins to rally here, it will not help gold and the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still in the black but fell back pretty good today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had weakness in the second half of todays session and we'll see if that is bought tomorrow on the open.  The trend remains up.  I have no OEX trades in mind for now.  Gold is moving sideways after a nice run up from the crash low.  We'll see how that works itself out in the near future.  The gold shares have acted better recently and that is a plus for the bullish cause.  I still need to see how the month ends before I figure out what to do with the October ABX calls.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.   

It is a momentum move to the upside as the Dow gained 49 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  It seems like there is no stopping the stock markets now but we know that attitude can be dangerous.  The summation index continues to climb higher.  All the stock indices are in sync to the upside.  Overbought, staying there and this condition remains.  Enjoy the ride.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  Right at the 50 day moving average now.  I still have no trading ideas regarding GE for now.  Gold moved back to the upside today as the US dollar fell.  The precious metal futures rose $25.  The XAU finally went up with the price of gold as that index gained 5 1/3.  ABX up 1 2/3, GG higher by 1 3/4 and NEM tacked on 1 1/2.  Volume continues to be extremely heavy in ABX, just average for the other two.  The October ABX calls I own are solidly in the black after todays action.  But we all know how that can change.  However the medium term technicals for the gold shares remain oversold so we could have more room to run up here.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a rally for stocks since November and there seems to be no end in sight.  Buying the dips remains the theme.  I am certainly surprised by the length and strength of this rally.  Gold has had a very nice recovery from the crash of 3 to 4 weeks ago.  This leads me to believe that was a washout event and we have seen the lows for gold this year.  Gold has also held at the 200 day moving average on the medium term charts.  I still think the low will be tested at some point but it will hold in my opinion.  Any retest would be a chance to go long again.  That's my guess at the moment.  We'll see what happens on Thursday. 

Continuing higher as the Dow closes above 15000 for the first time in history.  The most watched index gained 87 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Overbought and staying there on a short and medium term basis for the stock indices.  The summation index continues higher.  Nothing to stop this rally as there is no overhead resistance.  It won't go on forever but you cannot fight the trend.  It is a momentum run that we are on now.  GE was up a touch on light volume.  Stalling below the 50 day moving average here.  No trades for now.  Gold fell today, off $20 on the futures.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU fell 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of 1/2 or so.  Volume was average but remains above average for ABX.  It is expected for gold to retest its recent lows and the same goes for the gold shares.  What happens after that will be the key for the October ABX call trade.  It remains in the black for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like another leg up has begun on the rally that began last November.  Most stock indices are making new highs together and that is nothing but bullish.  I certainly did not see this kind of up move coming when the year started.  We'll see how long and how far it can go.  Any decline continues to be bought.  Gold was lower today and we'll see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  Same goes for the gold shares.  The best case scenario here for the bulls would be a sideways consolidation to work off the overbought condition.  We'll see.  As usual we'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there. 

A mixed market to begin the week as the Dow fell 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher on the day.  The trend remains up.  The summation index is moving higher.  I would expect the Dow to close above 15000 at some point this week.  I have no OEX trades in mind for now.  May consider the puts again at some point before expiration.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was very light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was a a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was flat on the session.  ABX gained 1/3 on good volume, while GG and NEM were little changed on light volume.  Could be a week for consolidation in the gold shares but that is simply a guess.  My October ABX calls continue to show a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a pause in the rally today for the stock indices.  Not much in the way of economic data out this week.  We should drift higher in my opinion.  Today the Dow transports confirmed the new high in the Dow.  Gold has had a nice run higher since the crash 3 weeks ago.  I'd still expect the recent lows to be tested at some point here though.  Not sure how long I'll hold on to the October ABX calls.  However if the low has been put in there, we should see a bullish monthly candlestick for May.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there.        

The employment report was better than expected and the market took off to the upside from the opening bell.  The Dow gained 142 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  New all time highs for some of the stock indices.  The summation index continues higher.  There is no overhead resistance for the Dow and the S&P 500.  I dumped my May OEX puts at the open for a 65% loss.  This trade was in trouble yesterday when we rallied instead of getting some downside follow through to Wednesdays declines.  Not to mention an over 100 point rally the day before the employment report.  The smart money telegraphed todays move.  In retrospect, Wednesday was the day to get long.  Overbought both short and medium term now but that can persist.  We'll have a closing Dow 15000 celebration next week.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume but well off of the highs for the day.  No good ideas there for me at the moment.  Gold lost a bit on the futures as did the US dollar.  Considering the strong employment report it could have been a lot worse for gold.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  My ABX October calls are still in the black.  I should be holding on to them for a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Chalk up another losing trade for me with the OEX put loss.  Not a lot of money involved but the mental capital is always more important.  You've got to keep moving ahead though.  2 weeks remaining on the May option cycle.  I might try another trade before expiration.  The June cycle has an extra week.  What looked like the beginning of an extended move lower for the stock indexes on Wednesday has completely turned around.  It now looks like a question of how high can we go?  Of course that could all change next week but I doubt it.  Gold was basically flat on the week but has recovered pretty good from the April crash.  I'd expect those lows to be tested again at some point.  The gold shares have at least stopped going down.  They remain oversold on a medium term basis.  There is a chance that I'll sell the October ABX calls and then try and buy them back again later.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with the next trade before the May expiration.  It's a warm, springtime Friday afternoon.  Time for a rest. 

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 130 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The market is trying to make up its mind which way to go here and tomorrow should decide that.  The summation index continues higher.  The stock indices have the feel of wanting to move higher here.  My May OEX puts are back in the red.  If we break out to the upside tomorrow I will probably have to dump them at a loss.  The technicals for the stock indexes are still short term overbought but that condition could continue while moving higher.  The NASDAQ is moving to new highs for the year and that's bullish.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  No trading ideas there for now.  Gold moved back to the upside as well, gaining $20 on the futures.  This happened despite a very strong upside move in the US dollar.  The XAU was off 1/8 as gold and the gold shares remain out of sync.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves either way.  Volume was average.  GG announced their earnings and there wasn't much of a reaction.  My October ABX calls remain at a profit for now.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Employment numbers tomorrow and it would not surprise me to see the market rally.  Money continues to flow into US stocks.  I get the feeling now that the stock indexes will run higher into the May expiration.  I hope I'm wrong for the sake of my OEX put trade.  The technicals could point in either direction now.  Europe cut rates overnight and their markets barely budged.  The money is coming here.  Gold has held up well since the crash but that could all change in a day.  We'll see if there are any surprises in store tomorrow morning and check out the markets reaction to the numbers.  

The Dow headed lower today as it fell 138 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  We were short term overbought, so a decline here would be in order.  How much of a decline is the question.  The Fed came and went with no real market impact.  There was nothing new in the Fed announcement and rates remain as low as they can go.  The Dow transports and the RUT were especially weak which tells me that the decline could have legs.  My May OEX puts are in the black.  I'll hold them until the employment report at least.  We'll see how the weekly charts look on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  No trading ideas there for now.  Gold headed lower today as well, off $25 on the futures.  It made up a little ground in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU fell 2 1/8.  ABX down 1/2, GG off 3/4 and NEM was up an 1/8 or so.  Volume remains better than average for the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still showing a profit for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Lower today on the stock indexes but we all know that the market can turn on a dime.  I would expect Thursdays trading to be a wait and see game.  The next big market mover should be Fridays employment report.  Anything goes there.  I have no idea what the numbers will be but the market reaction will be what's important.  Gold itself looks like it has rolled over here.  We'll see if the recent crash lows hold.  I think that they will given the extended snap back rally we've seen there.  But anything can happen.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower overnight and go from there. 

A late move to the upside led the Dow to a 21 point gain today on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow which is bullish going forward.  Todays action doesn't bode well for my OEX puts.  A strong upside follow through tomorrow will probably doom them.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll get the Fed and the market reaction to the announcement tomorrow.  It's also the beginning of a new month so we should see some positive money flows.  So we'll see.  Most foreign stock exchanges will be closed tomorrow.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold was up only $4 on the futures as the US dollar took a decent drop today.  Gold will not go up in a straight line forever.  I would expect some type of backing and filling soon.  The XAU gained 1 1/2.  ABX up 1/2, GG gained 3/4 and NEM fell 1 2/3 on its earnings report.  Volume in the gold shares was good.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Positive action for stocks today as we push on to new highs for some of the indices.  My idea for the OEX puts here could be the wrong one.  Tomorrow will tell a lot about that.  Overbought on the short term technicals though so all hope is not lost yet for that trade.  Gold is not completely overbought here but a pause in the up move is overdue since the crash of a couple of weeks ago.  The gold share technicals are neutral at the moment.  Perhaps the worst is over there for now.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Starting the week to the upside as the Dow gained 106 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Short term overbought here.  That condition could persist.  I'm still a believer of a top being put in place for the stock indices but as always I could be wrong.  However a light volume rally was what I was looking for.  I purchased some OEX puts today.  Unless we have some kind of high volume breakout in the next day or so, I'll be holding the puts until Friday.  The options are still break even at this point.  GE was little changed on average volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold futures rose $13 today with the US dollar a bit weaker.  The XAU managed a 1 1/2 point gain.  ABX and NEM were up fractionally, while GG was flat on the day.  Volume remains heavy for ABX, light on the other two.  NEM announces earnings today after the bell.  We'll have to wait and see the reaction on that.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A nice start to the week for the stock indexes to the upside.  There is a lot of economic data and the Fed to deal with this week.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  So anything could happen.  I've taken my position with the OEX puts.  Gold has had a pretty solid move up from the crash low of 2 weeks ago.  It should be due for a rest.  The gold shares continue to under perform the precious metal itself but at least they have stopped going straight down.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets and take it from there.  

It was a mixed market to close out the week.  The Dow was up 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower.  The short term technicals are still more overbought than oversold for the stock indices.  I still believe that we are building a top.  Only a high volume upside breakout would negate that idea.  Hasn't happened yet.  GDP was a bit weaker than expected but wasn't really a market mover.  Plenty of economic data out next week along with a Fed meeting and an ECB meeting.  I'll be looking for a spot to buy some OEX puts before the employment report.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Perhaps the recent decline there is over but it is too early to tell I think.  The 200 day moving average provided support.  Gold fell on the futures today, off 8 bucks despite a weaker US dollar.  The XAU lost 3 2/3.  ABX down 1/2, GG lower by a buck and NEM fell 7/8.  Volume remains overly robust here.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  I'm still a believer in this trade but don't know how long that I will be holding it.  The daily technicals for the XAU remain weak and the last 3 day candlestick pattern is bearish.  NEM reports earnings on Monday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Are we heading up to new highs on the stock indexes?  Perhaps.  The weekly chart technicals look like they are trying to turn back up.  Overbought here short term though.  We'll have to let the market again tell us what to do.  If we get a light volume rally at the beginning of next week, I'll be inclined to buy the OEX puts.  Any other scenario will likely have me on the sidelines.  Gold has had a very nice comeback after the crash of last Monday.  Some backing and filling here would not be unexpected.  Ditto for the gold shares.  Plenty of charts to focus on over the weekend in preparation of a game plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow managed a gain of 24 points today on good volume.  We were about 70 points higher than that on the day but once again faded in the final hour.  That really isn't bullish action.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive again though.  So breadth says we are going higher.  The summation index continues higher as well.  We'll get the 1st quarter GDP report tomorrow and that should set the tone for the session.  I did not purchase any OEX puts today.  If we begin to drop tomorrow it will probably be too late.  We have yet to take out the recent highs in the S&P 500.  If the market meanders around for the next few days, I'll try the OEX puts before next weeks employment report.  GE opened higher and closed lower but finished the day little changed.  Volume was good.  No trade here for now.  Gold continued its recent run to the upside following last weeks crash.  The precious metal futures rose almost 40 bucks.  The US dollar was a bit weaker in todays trading session.  Gold has made quite a comeback following last weeks negative action.  The XAU did not follow the metal and only rose 1 1/8.  ABX and NEM finished the day little changed after being much higher, while GG gained 3/8.  Volume remains very heavy for this group.  My October ABX calls are in the black but fell back quite a bit from where they traded today.  This will be an interesting trade to manage.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Stocks kind of ran out of gas today and tomorrows session will probably give important clues about what will be happening in the near future.  The stock indexes are now short term overbought.  A move higher tomorrow implies that the recent highs will be challenged.  A move lower could mean the end of the rally or more of the building of a top here.  Gold has had an incredible move higher since the crash last week.  I think that it's more than just a bounce at this point.  But it won't last forever.  The gold shares are still very oversold on the medium term charts.  I'm guessing that there will be more upside to come there going forward.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.   

The Dow lost ground in the final hour today and finished with a loss of 43 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow which is bullish going forward.  The summation index is now heading higher as well.  I am still considering purchasing some OEX puts.  Either tomorrow before the GDP report or sometime next week.  I could be wrong.  I'm expecting weaker than expected GDP numbers on Friday.  But who knows?  Maybe we'll rally on that.  Technically we'll be short term overbought soon if we keep moving higher.  GE had a nice move today, up almost 1/2 on good volume.  The 200 day moving average is holding for now.  Gold went back to the upside by $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed on the day.  The XAU actually showed some signs of life by moving up 6 1/2.  ABX up 1 1/3, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM climbed 1 7/8.  Volume remains strong here and still extremely heavy for ABX.  ABX reported better than anticipated earnings today and that was the excuse for the upside.  My October ABX calls have moved back to a profit.  Hopefully ABX is sold out here and the technicals say we're still oversold.  However rarely does gold crash as it did and then a new rally immediately emerge.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not feel well last night.  The major indices gave up their gains at the end of the day but smaller stocks held up better.  That should be bullish going forward.  I'm still considering the price action to be of the topping variety.  Unless we break out to new highs on good volume, the OEX puts remain on my radar.  Gold itself has acted very well since the crash this past Monday.  Today even the gold shares found some life.  We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend or just another head fake for the gold shares.  They've been laggards for months.  We'll keep an eye on the action in the foreign exchanges and take it from there. 

The market roared to the upside today as the Dow gained 152 points on average volume.  This was despite a mini flash crash halfway through the session.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive which should move the summation index back to the upside.  I did not expect this type of strong move here.  Perhaps my negative thesis on the stock indices is wrong.  I'm sticking with it for now.  We'll see how the market reacts if we get to the previous highs.  We are definitely within striking distance.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are turning back up.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume continues very heavy.  There is a huge downside gap on the daily chart here and it looks anything but positive.  We're hovering at the 200 day moving average.  Gold was off $7 on the futures and more in the aftermarket as the US dollar had a strong day.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX off 3/8, GG dropped 3/4 and NEM lost a buck.  Volume remains heavier than normal here.  Earnings out tomorrow morning for ABX.  My October ABX calls have moved into the red.  Anything is possible tomorrow and this issue remains deeply oversold on all the technicals.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes had a mini crash today that lasted about a couple of minutes.  This is the trading environment we now live in.  It is a computer driven game.  That is the reality and there is no getting around it.  The positive performance of the stock indices today was impressive.  However until all the indices break out to new highs I would advise caution about getting too bullish now.  Gold had a nice bounce after the crash but it is probably due to retest the recent lows.  What occurs there will be the key for the direction of the precious metal.  The reaction to the ABX earnings will be my main focus for tomorrow.   

We begin the week to the upside as the Dow gained 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We'll see how the week plays out but I do not expect any huge rallies.  Sideways to lower is my scenario going forward for the stock indices.  1st quarter GDP is the big economic report of the week on Friday.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was very heavy.  This is a canary in the coal mine.  GE is a huge multi-national company.  It portends a global slowdown with its recent price action.  Gold gained $25 on the futures as the US dollar was off a touch.  Gold has made quite a comeback after last Mondays meltdown.  The XAU has hardly come back though.  It gained about a point and a half today.  ABX off 1/8, GG up 2/3 and NEM rose 3/8.  Volume was average with the exception of ABX which remains very heavy.  Even a weekend article in Barron's couldn't get the gold shares really moving to the upside.  The October ABX calls I own are barely in the black.  Earnings are due for Barrick on Wednesday.  That should get things moving good one way or the other.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is a wait and see attitude with respect to the stock indexes for now.  I'm looking at some OEX puts at some point in the May option cycle.  I'm still a believer that we are in a topping process.  Gold has made a nice bounce back from last weeks carnage but the gold shares haven't followed.  Gold itself should head back down to retest the lows of last week.  Just waiting for the ABX earnings at this point.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

Expiration Friday is behind us as the Dow gained 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The Dow was affected by the poor showings of IBM and GE on earnings reports.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  However it also could have been expiration related.  So we will have to see how things shake out next week.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold on at its 50 day moving average.  I'm still a believer that the rally that began in November is over.  We're building or have built a top.  I'll be looking for places to buy puts, most likely with the OEX.  GE had a gap to the downside and fell 7/8 on very heavy volume.  If GE is a bellwether for the overall market it would be bearish.  The technicals on the weekly chart here have now rolled over.  Some good support at the $20 level for GE.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar gained a bit today.  The XAU rose 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves to the upside on heavy volume.  The volume for ABX remains very heavy.  Earnings for ABX due next week.  The October ABX calls I have are still in the black.  There was extreme volume for these options yesterday and the open interest expanded vastly.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The weekly chart technicals for most of the stock indices have rolled over.  The weekly Dow candlestick chart shows a bearish belt hold pattern.  That doesn't meant that we can't move higher from here but it does mean the odds favor more downside going forward.  But that could all change next week.  We're moving on to the May option cycle.  The weekly gold and gold share charts show extreme carnage.  That doesn't mean that we can't go lower though.  I still think that going out to October on the ABX calls will be a winning trade.  However I've been wrong on most of the ABX call trades for a year or so.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend.  Not a lot of economic data out next week but we'll get the 1st quarter GDP on Friday.  We'll also have the backdrop of the recent attack in Boston.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Heading lower as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Up trend lines have been broken on some of the major stock indices.  I'm sticking with a sideways or down scenario for the stock indexes going forward.  The S&P 500 has yet to break its up trend line from November but that should come in time.  Same for the Dow.  I'll be looking at OEX puts on rallies for now.  GE was off a touch on average volume.  Heading lower here and we get the earnings out tomorrow.  Gold was up $10 on the futures as the US dollar was off slightly.  The XAU gained 2 7/8 for a change.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on good volume.  The volume for ABX remains extreme.  The October ABX calls I bought yesterday are in the black.  Waiting for the snap back with the gold shares on this trade.  Extremely oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of earnings still to come and the background environment remains uncertain in the US with the recent bombing.  The reasons for buying stocks here do not outweigh the risks going forward at this time.  That is my guess at the moment.  Gold itself is trying to hold in here but I think lower prices are still in the near future.  We'll get through the option expiration tomorrow and take it from there.      

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 138 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  Volatility here and that usually means a change in the underlying direction.  I would guess now that a top is being put in or is already in for the stock indices.  The summation index is back to heading lower.  Seasonality dictates that the rally from November is coming to an end.  We could be in a sideways environment for a while but the uptrend stops here in my opinion.  I try to listen to the indexes.  We'll let the market tell us what to expect.  My interpretations are sometimes wrong though.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  More volume to the downside here which mirrors the overall market.  Earnings on Friday, should be a mover.  Gold lost about $5 on the futures today but then fell more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was very strong today.  The XAU continues to get crushed, off 5 2/3.  ABX fell 1 1/4, GG off 1/2 and NEM dropped 1 3/8.  Volume was heavy and once again extremely heavy in ABX.  My order was filled for the October ABX calls.  I am expecting a decent snap back rally in the gold shares eventually.  The question is from exactly what levels?  We are still in a free fall for the gold shares.  Gold itself is trying to put the brakes on here but I believe that the precious metal will be headed lower going forward as well.  Then why make the trade?  If you take a look at the huge drops in ABX from the past, there is always a big bounce from the very oversold levels.  We are about as oversold as you can get there.  There are no guarantees in the game but I think the odds are with this particular trade to be successful.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty for the stock indexes to digest here with earnings and the recent events.  I'm sticking with my thesis that the rally is done for now.  A look at the daily charts shows a rollover for some and the potential of rollovers for others.  It is a time to be cautious regrading the stock market at this time.  Gold has broken down with the rest of the commodity markets.  It probably has further to go on the downside.  I do expect a relief rally at some point.  The ultimate downside for gold in my opinion is $1200 at the long term up trend line.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and head on to Thursday. 

The Dow made a nice comeback today, up 157 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  Still plenty of buyers on the dip.  We'll see how long this snap back lasts or perhaps it is the start of another leg up.  Some indices moved to new highs recently but the smaller stocks did not.  That usually isn't a positive going forward.  We are also heading into a seasonal period of under performance for stocks.  So we'll see what happens.  I still think it is a time to be cautious given the recent events.  The threat of terrorism combined with a collapse in commodities cannot be considered bullish in my opinion.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Earnings due on Friday.  No trades there for now.  Gold had a modest bounce, up $26 on the futures.  This despite being very oversold and the US dollar was much weaker today.  The precious metal began to drop again in the aftermarket.  The XAU dropped 3/4.  ABX off a buck, GG was flat and NEM was off 1/8.  Volume remains very heavy for the gold shares.  ABX continues to get hammered.  I do have an open order here for some October ABX calls.  This could simply be another mistake among the many that I have had in the past year trading the calls on this stock.  However the collapse here is overblown in my mind and I believe that there will be a substantial bounce in the gold shares before October.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week is upon us and volatility is on the rise.  The economic data is coming in mixed.  So we'll see.  If the market can recover here and move on to new highs, that would be very bullish.  I do not think that is the upcoming scenario.  But what do I know?  Gold is in a free fall.  I peg support at $1200 after viewing the longer term charts.  Support for silver is at 20 bucks.  If those levels doesn't hold then the bull market in precious metals is done in my humble opinion.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.      

Today we saw why this game we play is so unpredictable.  We are seeing a worldwide liquidation of assets.  I certainly do not know why.  The Dow fell 265 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative.  Bad numbers out of China, a commodity collapse and a couple of explosions at the Boston Marathon.  Technical damage has been done to some of the stock index daily charts.  The summation index should be turned around to the downside today.  There will be follow through selling most likely tomorrow.  I thought we would simply drift up into the expiration this week but all that has changed.  It has turned into a time to be cautious when it comes to stocks.  GE fell 2/3 on good volume.  We've broken through the 50 day moving average to the downside.  Earnings out later this week for GE.  Gold is in crash mode.  The precious metal futures lost $140.  There was a huge percentage decline in silver as well.  The US dollar was up just a bit.  Gold is crashing as margin calls help expand the liquidation.  We broke the $1550 level and the sellers have taken over.  The XAU lost over 11 points.  ABX down 2 7/8, GG fell 2 points and NEM shed 2 1/2.  Volume remains off the charts to the downside.  I'm looking at some longer term calls for ABX now because there will eventually be a violent snap back to the upside.  From what level is the question.  I'm looking at the October and January 2014 calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see what the fall out is from todays events.  The bombing in Boston is still breaking news at this point.  There should be more selling tomorrow in stocks.  I'd also expect more liquidation in the commodities as well.  Like I said before I do not know what is the cause of the liquidation but we can always be sure that the market knows more than us.  It looks like support for silver comes in at around $20.  For gold at around $1250 if it cannot hold in here.  We'll have to see what happens in the foreign markets overnight.  It is probably a time to be careful.  Interesting times.    

After being down almost 75 points during the session, the Dow came all the way back to finish the day basically unchanged.  The advance/declines were negative and the volume remains light.  Money continues to flow into stocks as the buy the dip mentality persists.  You can't argue with success.  There is no resistance to the upside.  I still think the stock indices will remain firm into the expiration next week.  After that, who knows?  GE was off 1/8 on very light volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold got absolutely crushed today as it took out the all important $1550 level.  The precious metal futures were off over $60 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was little changed on the trading day.  The XAU fell 6 points.  ABX fell another 2 buck, GG slid 1 1/2 and NEM shed 2 1/4.  Volume was huge once again.  The market blew through my stop loss order on the ABX May calls, so I dumped them at the market.  It turned out to be a 70% loss after all.  I have been buying calls on ABX all the way down for the past year and have lost practically every time.  This week I got sliced and diced on the catching falling knife attempt.  Mentally I'm feeling as if whatever I'm trying to trade so far this year just isn't working out.  With the exception of a couple of GE trades early, whatever I'm trading has been a loser.  Commodities are dropping along with the precious metals.  Either there is too much supply or the overall world economy is weaker than we are giving it credit for.  The stock indices seem to be saying that there is too much supply.  Money continues to find a home in stocks.  The only caveat is that the volume has been light on this upside breakout.  We'll see if the rally continues but there is nothing to stop it at the moment.  Gold has now broken the support that it needed to hold.  The trend is down.  Perhaps the gold shares were foreshadowing this breakdown in gold.  Obviously I was stuck on the long side here for the gold shares when the trend was down.  That was a huge mistake.  I still believe that ABX under $25 is a longer term winner.  I will be looking at the volume and open interest on the October and January calls here to see if there was any accumulation today.  I will also have to see where the ultimate long term support is for gold itself on a monthly and yearly chart.  I'll need to find the up trend line from the 2000 lows to see where the support lies.  I don't think that it has been broken yet.  So there will be plenty of work to do over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was slightly weaker than the Dow.  We have broken out to the upside here but the volume has been lackluster.  As a rule, light volume rallies are not to be trusted.  That said, I still think we'll run things up into the expiration next week.  The trend remains up.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trade ideas here for now.  Gold was up 6 bucks on the futures but fell back in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was weaker again today.  The XAU fell almost 2 points.  ABX was up 1/4, while GG and NEM lost 1/3.  Volume was huge again for ABX, light for the others.  I mistakenly thought that my stop loss order for the May ABX calls was filled late yesterday.  Checking back after posting the blog showed that the order wasn't filled.  Once again the premium got to my price and nothing happened.  So I still own the May ABX calls.  I'm sure the stop loss order will be filled in the next day or so, barring a rally in ABX.  More on ABX later.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue higher with no overhead resistance.  Not short term overbought yet but another couple of up days will do that.  Money continues to flow into the US stock market.  Gold is trying to hold the $1550 level and the jury is still out on that.  ABX is now blown out to the downside.  The news at this point can't get any worse.  The saying goes, buy bad news.  ABX is not going to go out of business.  The mining operations will get back online once again.  Anything under $25 for this issue is a longer term buy.  I even placed an open order for the June calls last night in case ABX dropped further, which it didn't.  Purchasing ABX now will pay you a dividend of 3% while you wait.  I could be wrong and have been a lot lately but this looks like an opportunity to me.  We'll see how the markets close out the week tomorrow.

The market has spoken as we broke out to the upside today.  The Dow gained 128 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  The S&P 500 broke above the resistance at 1570 to close at 1587.  The market had every opportunity to decline in the past couple of weeks but did not.  Now we have broken out to all time highs and there is no resistance going forward.  We'll see how high this rally can go.  I'd expect it to last into the April expiration which ends on Friday of next week.  GE was up 1/2 on average volume.  The 50 day moving average acted as support and we are rallying from there.  GE should take out the old recent higha at around $23.75.  The gold futures fell over $25 on the Fed minutes.  The US dollar was up a bit as well.  The XAU was back to the downside by 4 3/8.  GG was off 7/8 and NEM lost a buck both on good volume.  But the story of the day was the carnage in ABX.  It collapsed 2 1/4 on extremely heavy blow out volume.  Apparently a court in Chile has stopped production on one of the mining projects that ABX has in that country.  The mine is co-owned with GG but that stock did not go down like ABX.  I do not know why.  Last night I adjusted down my order for the May ABX calls and that was filled right away this morning.  I placed a stop loss order for this trade and it was hit later in the day.  That's something that I really haven't seen in a while.  The loss was around 55%.  Not a lot of money in this trade but it shows the risk in trading individual issues vs. the indexes.  Of course that works both ways as there could have been some good news out of ABX and it would have out performed.  I guess now we know why ABX has been such a laggard with respect to the other gold shares lately.  This dramatic downside action should get all the rest of the sellers out but there could be an extended period of consolidation before it start to move higher again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices have begun the next climb.  The Dow transports haven't yet confirmed the move but they should in the coming days.  Probably too late to get some OEX calls.  I guess it's the sidelines for now.  The sharp contraction of the Bollinger bands forewarned of a huge move coming.  Take note of that for the next time.  Perhaps buying both the puts and calls would work out for an overall profit.  Another losing trade in the ABX calls.  Knowing the underlying situation now certainly doesn't help.  Perhaps I should have just listened to the technicals as this was the weakest issue for the mining shares.  Of course hindsight is always correct.  I don't know where I'll go from here with the gold shares.  It's time to regroup.  The earnings for these companies will be out later this month.  They remain oversold.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher tomorrow.   

We are now back to the top of the trading range in the S&P 500.  The Dow gained 60 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The S&P 500 made it above the 1570 level and then fell back.  I suppose we are at some kind of moment of truth for the stock indices.  This could be the light volume levitation that allows us to get some OEX puts here.  Or it could be the start of another upside momentum move if we blow through the 1570 level.  The Russell 2000 and the Dow transports were both negative today which supports the bearish alternative.  The summation index is still heading down as well.  I personally do not have the same downside conviction that I had last week.  I think it could go either way here now.  GE was off 1/8 after being higher early.  Hugging the 50 day moving average here.  No trades in mind for now with respect to GE.  Gold continued higher as the US dollar fell today.  The precious metal futures rose $14.  The XAU finally showed some life by gaining 5 points on the day.  ABX up 1/3, GG and NEM rose a buck.  Volume was good.  ABX is the laggard here and has been for quite some time.  Perhaps I should try the calls with another gold share issue.  I still have the open order in for the May calls there.  I'll ponder this tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got the Fed minutes out tomorrow and they could be a market mover.  Not exactly sure what to expect.  Perhaps today was the time to purchase the OEX puts and perhaps not.  When in doubt stay out goes the saying.  I'll consider what to do about this possible trade tonight.  Gold is having a good week so far.  The gold shares finally showed some upside today as well.  That doesn't mean that it's the start of something substantial but it could be.  I'll consider keeping the open order for the ABX May calls or perhaps adjusting the buy price.  Or maybe canceling the trade altogether.  We'll see what happens overseas and go from there.      

Back to the upside again today as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This could be the light volume move back to around the 1570 level on the S&P 500 that will be an opportunity to get some April OEX puts.  Or it could be the beginning of something else.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today.  We've been moving sideways in the S&P 500 since the beginning of March.  The top of the range is 1570 and the bottom is 1540.  We're at 1563.  I think we will have to let the market tell us what to do at this point.  I was certain that we were on the cusp of some type of decline but now I am not so sure.  GE was up 1/8 or so and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell $3 on the futures after being higher earlier.  The US dollar was up a bit today.  The XAU fell about 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all off 1/3 on average volume.  My open order for the ABX May calls is still out there.  It was touched today but wasn't filled.  In my experience if the premium goes down to your price and it doesn't get filled, it's usually a sign that the trade is going to work.  Market makers are not in business to lose money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are acting as though they want to move higher here.  If the volume stays light, I may try the April OEX puts.  Not a lot of economic data out this week but earnings season begins.  9 days to go in the April option cycle.  I'll check the charts again tonight and go from there.   

An interesting day on the street as the Dow sold off hard early on a weak jobs report but steadily made up ground for the rest of the day.  The most watched index fell 170 points on the open but cut the closing loss to just 40 points on the session.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was average.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of todays trading but the buy the dip mentality was there for all to see.  The short term technicals are now oversold, so some type of bounce is probably coming.  If it is a light volume affair, then buying the OEX April puts will be in order.  But if we get a strong rally from here my prognosis for an extended decline will be wrong.  I think for now we will have to let the market tell us what to do.  The summation index does continue lower.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was nothing special.  No trades here for now.  Gold found some life as the futures were up $23.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU was off 1/3 as the gold shares continue to lag.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  I left in the open order for the May ABX calls but I'll have to reconsider this trade over the weekend.  The gold shares continue to be one of the only losers in the stock market despite being both short and medium term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been in a range of between 1570 and 1540 since the beginning of March.  We reached 1540 today and rallied off of it.  The daily Bollinger bands are the narrowest that they have been for quite some time.  So it looks like some type of huge move will be in store here.  A break above or below those 2 levels should tell the story.  That's my best guess at the moment.  I'll have to review everything over the weekend.  Gold had a nice move today and there is a positive RSI divergence on the daily charts.  The last 3 day candlestick pattern there looks bullish as well.  I can't say anything looks bullish on the gold share charts though.  Unless this week was the final high volume washout.  But that's a guess as usual.  I am considering the May ABX calls though if they hit my premium price.  But this could just be another loser as well.  I'm thinking to be long here before the earnings release that comes out later this month.  But that could be a mistake also.  Plenty of scenarios to consider over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The back and forth continues as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The Dow hasn't yet broken down from the sideways consolidation but I think that is coming.  The ideal scenario from here would be a light volume move higher for a few days as a chance to get some April OEX puts.  The summation index is heading lower.  We've got the employment report tomorrow.  I don't know what to expect there but the markets reaction to it will be the key.  GE was up just a touch on light volume.  Still hanging on here at the 50 day moving average.  Gold was flat on the futures after being lower early on.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  Gold is trying to hold the all important $1550 level and I think that eventually it will.  The XAU snapped back 3 1/4 today.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains higher on heavy volume.  These issues are trying to make a stand at these levels as well.  I did place an overnight order for some May ABX calls again.  It wasn't filled but I left it open.  My thinking is that yesterday was the final downside blow-off for this issue.  But I've thought that before and have been wrong every time.  I'll re-evaluate this tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a very oversold reading on the McClellan oscillator last night, below -150.  So some type of snap back move higher in the stock indices should be seen.  Perhaps today was the beginning of that.  But that could all change with some type of surprise from the employment numbers.  I'm still a believer that the top is in for the stock indexes here.  Gold is either going to hold on right here and start to move higher in the coming weeks or it is going to fall dramatically.  That is the point in time where we are at there in my opinion.  I think that gold will hang on but I could be wrong and have been mistaken regarding gold a lot lately.  So we'll see.  All eyes on tomorrows economic data and where the stock market goes from here.