Thursday, April 04, 2013
The back and forth continues as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The Dow hasn't yet broken down from the sideways consolidation but I think that is coming. The ideal scenario from here would be a light volume move higher for a few days as a chance to get some April OEX puts. The summation index is heading lower. We've got the employment report tomorrow. I don't know what to expect there but the markets reaction to it will be the key. GE was up just a touch on light volume. Still hanging on here at the 50 day moving average. Gold was flat on the futures after being lower early on. The US dollar was a bit lower today. Gold is trying to hold the all important $1550 level and I think that eventually it will. The XAU snapped back 3 1/4 today. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains higher on heavy volume. These issues are trying to make a stand at these levels as well. I did place an overnight order for some May ABX calls again. It wasn't filled but I left it open. My thinking is that yesterday was the final downside blow-off for this issue. But I've thought that before and have been wrong every time. I'll re-evaluate this tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We got a very oversold reading on the McClellan oscillator last night, below -150. So some type of snap back move higher in the stock indices should be seen. Perhaps today was the beginning of that. But that could all change with some type of surprise from the employment numbers. I'm still a believer that the top is in for the stock indexes here. Gold is either going to hold on right here and start to move higher in the coming weeks or it is going to fall dramatically. That is the point in time where we are at there in my opinion. I think that gold will hang on but I could be wrong and have been mistaken regarding gold a lot lately. So we'll see. All eyes on tomorrows economic data and where the stock market goes from here.
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