Friday, April 05, 2013
An interesting day on the street as the Dow sold off hard early on a weak jobs report but steadily made up ground for the rest of the day. The most watched index fell 170 points on the open but cut the closing loss to just 40 points on the session. The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was average. I'm not exactly sure what to make of todays trading but the buy the dip mentality was there for all to see. The short term technicals are now oversold, so some type of bounce is probably coming. If it is a light volume affair, then buying the OEX April puts will be in order. But if we get a strong rally from here my prognosis for an extended decline will be wrong. I think for now we will have to let the market tell us what to do. The summation index does continue lower. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was nothing special. No trades here for now. Gold found some life as the futures were up $23. The US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU was off 1/3 as the gold shares continue to lag. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume. I left in the open order for the May ABX calls but I'll have to reconsider this trade over the weekend. The gold shares continue to be one of the only losers in the stock market despite being both short and medium term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The S&P 500 has been in a range of between 1570 and 1540 since the beginning of March. We reached 1540 today and rallied off of it. The daily Bollinger bands are the narrowest that they have been for quite some time. So it looks like some type of huge move will be in store here. A break above or below those 2 levels should tell the story. That's my best guess at the moment. I'll have to review everything over the weekend. Gold had a nice move today and there is a positive RSI divergence on the daily charts. The last 3 day candlestick pattern there looks bullish as well. I can't say anything looks bullish on the gold share charts though. Unless this week was the final high volume washout. But that's a guess as usual. I am considering the May ABX calls though if they hit my premium price. But this could just be another loser as well. I'm thinking to be long here before the earnings release that comes out later this month. But that could be a mistake also. Plenty of scenarios to consider over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment