Thursday, April 25, 2013
The Dow managed a gain of 24 points today on good volume. We were about 70 points higher than that on the day but once again faded in the final hour. That really isn't bullish action. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive again though. So breadth says we are going higher. The summation index continues higher as well. We'll get the 1st quarter GDP report tomorrow and that should set the tone for the session. I did not purchase any OEX puts today. If we begin to drop tomorrow it will probably be too late. We have yet to take out the recent highs in the S&P 500. If the market meanders around for the next few days, I'll try the OEX puts before next weeks employment report. GE opened higher and closed lower but finished the day little changed. Volume was good. No trade here for now. Gold continued its recent run to the upside following last weeks crash. The precious metal futures rose almost 40 bucks. The US dollar was a bit weaker in todays trading session. Gold has made quite a comeback following last weeks negative action. The XAU did not follow the metal and only rose 1 1/8. ABX and NEM finished the day little changed after being much higher, while GG gained 3/8. Volume remains very heavy for this group. My October ABX calls are in the black but fell back quite a bit from where they traded today. This will be an interesting trade to manage. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. Stocks kind of ran out of gas today and tomorrows session will probably give important clues about what will be happening in the near future. The stock indexes are now short term overbought. A move higher tomorrow implies that the recent highs will be challenged. A move lower could mean the end of the rally or more of the building of a top here. Gold has had an incredible move higher since the crash last week. I think that it's more than just a bounce at this point. But it won't last forever. The gold shares are still very oversold on the medium term charts. I'm guessing that there will be more upside to come there going forward. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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