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Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 76 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are oversold and not getting the expected bounce.  This is troublesome.  The McClellan oscillator is in the negative 200's.  This doesn't happen very often and it usually comes in the midst of a huge decline.  The decline we've seen thus far is anything but huge.  So we are either on the verge of something big going lower or we are going to rally up to new highs as we come off of this oversold condition.  That's my guess at the moment.  The employment report on Friday could be the catalyst for a volatile session.  It's all conjecture for now.  I'm now undecided on which way to go.  GE was flat on average volume.  GE has held up rather well here compared to the overall stock market.  Perhaps that is a clue in what to expect going forward.  Gold headed back down today, off $15 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU dropped 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all off around 1/2.  Volume was light.  Overbought on the gold shares and I suppose sideways from here for a while is the best we can hope for.  We should see some movement one way or the other here on Friday as well.  Which way is the question.  I'm still holding on to the October ABX calls and they are still showing a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Pretty oversold on some of the stock indices technicals yet the price action has not been drastic to the downside.  I'm not sure what to make of it.  I may have to stay on the sidelines with regard to the OEX options.  However there will be some kind of opportunity available I believe.  I think gold is deciding which way to go here and as long as it stays above the crash lows I'll feel OK about the ABX call trade.  But anything can happen in this game.  June still has 2 1/2 weeks left in the option cycle.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

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