Tuesday, June 25, 2013
A bounce today as the Dow gained 100 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Some type of positive action was expected but the question is for how long? We are in a precarious position right now for the stock indices. There is still a chance that things could simply unravel here, due to the close proximity to the zero line on the summation index. We have broken the up trend line in the S&P 500 that had been in effect since November. The next technical expectation is a snap back to that line. That would be the preferred pattern here. If we make it back to the broken trend line, it would be an opportunity to purchase some OEX puts. The other scenario would be to simply continue the recent downside and with a vengeance. The jury is still out. GE was up 18 cents and is holding at its 50 day moving average. I'm still considering the July calls here. If GE moves sideways I may purchase the calls. But we are in a very unknown situation right now. Caution remains the safest attitude in my opinion. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was off 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. I am once again looking at the October ABX calls. The gold shares are blown out to the downside but if the overall market continues to drop, the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm still feeling a bit tired. The Dow transports had a good day and perhaps it is a sign that we may stabilize here. It's possible but so is the other alternative. Even if we do start to move higher here, it won't be the beginning of any kind of huge rally in my opinion. We'll be heading lower either right now or later in the summer for the stock indexes. Gold remains unloved and in a bear market. The gold shares remain oversold with no rallies of any consequence. My trading ideas at the moment are buying OEX puts if we rally back to the broken up trend line, July GE calls if GE moves sideways here and October ABX calls again if ABX drops further here. Perhaps if we get to $15 or lower on ABX. The Shanghai stock market is one to watch tonight as the daily candlestick chart there formed a hammer yesterday after a huge move down. If that hammer holds it could be a key as to what the US market is going to do near term. We'll keep an eye on that and the other foreign markets tonight and go from there.
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