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Wednesday, June 05, 2013

To the downside as the momentum run to the upside has run its course.  Those higher momentum moves never end well and we are seeing that is the case now.  The Dow fell 217 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 negative.  Oversold and staying there now for the stock indices.  Overdue for a bounce and when it comes it will be a big one.  But it won't matter much.  The trend has changed.  The market is speaking to us and we must listen.  My guess is that whatever kind of decline the market has here, we are just at the beginning.  It could take weeks and months.  We are getting too oversold on the McClellan oscillator not to have a huge up day soon.  Perhaps the employment report on Friday will be the catalyst.  Regardless, the rally has ended in my opinion.  GE was off 1/3 on good volume.  No technical damage on the daily chart here.  No trades in mind here either.  Gold was only up a buck on the futures today despite some weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all finished the trading session little changed.  Volume was light.  No interest in the gold shares today despite the overall market decline.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are now seeing what was inevitable for the stock indices.  It's an unwinding of the excesses of the momentum upside move.  It will probably take a while to complete.  The Fed easy money policy will be coming to an end sooner rather than later.  Market participants are finally beginning to factor this in.  We'll flip flop around from time to time to be sure.  But I doubt we will see a return to constant higher stock prices anytime soon.  We now have the prior top as upside resistance.  Gold needs to make a stand here.  I'd ideally like to see a solid upside week print out on the charts.  However sideways may be the case for now because there doesn't seem to be much buying interest in anything at the moment.  We'll have to see what happens in the next couple of days.  We'll keep a close eye for downside reactions in the foreign markets tonight as we wait for tomorrows US session ahead of the employment numbers on Friday.

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