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Tuesday, July 29, 2025

We finally saw some selling today as there was a one day reversal to the downside. The Dow fell 204 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trending lower. There was a gap higher at the open but then sellers took over for the rest of the day. The Dow led the way lower but the TRAN took a pretty good hit. My open order for the SPY August puts wasn't filled and I adjusted the ticket. It could be that this trade will be a miss but I don't think stocks are going to roll over without a fight. I'm still going to stick with this idea for now. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. If we continue to drop tomorrow it will be too late for the puts most likely. Still plenty of data and earnings to sift through this week. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up over 1 3/4 and GDX rose about 2/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators are turning up but it is still oversold. If the VIX continues higher the SPY put trade will have been missed. Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how it goes with the Fed tomorrow.

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