Monday, July 28, 2025
A mixed bag today as we had some minor selling during the day and the Dow closed with a loss of 64 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to trend lower again. The NASDAQ posted another gain and the S&P 500 finished flat. Overdue for some kind of selling in my opinion but you cannot argue with price. The S&P 500 simply continues to be short term overbought. I'm leaving my open order out there for the SPY August puts. Plenty of economic data out this week plus earnings. Gold was down $19 on the futures. The US dollar was strongly higher and interest rates were a touch off. The XAU fell 4 1/2, while GDX slid 1 3/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving lower with room to go. You could make a case for the gold shares heading lower this week from that. Strong economic data would probably bolster that idea. I'm on the sidelines right now with regards to the GDX options. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished flat today and remains short term oversold. Closed right at 15 and close to the lower Bollinger band. Not sure how long the VIX will stay down here. We made it quietly through Monday but I'm pretty sure there will be some fireworks this week. Up, down, both ways? As usual always plenty of questions in this game. I'm sticking with the idea of the SPY puts for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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