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Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Volatility returned today as the Fed provided its usual ups and downs. The Dow fell 171 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if it happens tomorrow. We had a sell off and a bounce back in the final two hours of trading today. The NASDAQ posted another small gain today, with the S&P 500 showing a slight loss. My SPY August put order never got filled and I think that idea has run its course for now. I'll probably cancel it tomorrow. The S&P remains short term overbought. If we can go on to make new highs with a lower RSI on the daily chart the put idea will be back in play. I'm guessing that the near term selling is done but I could be wrong. Gold dropped over fifty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU shed over 7 points and GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was average. GDX closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are back to heading lower. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as the SPY put trade has passed me by. You would have had to take the profits quickly and perhaps I would not have been up to the task. However I never got the chance to find out. We'll simply move on to the next idea as the markets keep moving along. The VIX finished lower and the daily candlestick chart implies lower readings to come. Still short term oversold here. Yesterdays rise in the VIX appears for now to be a one off. Inflation data tomorrow should set the tone ahead of Fridays jobs report. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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