Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Lower to mixed today as the Dow fell 436 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ posted a small gain today while the S&P 500 had a modest loss. We opened with a gap higher as the inflation data came in where expected and NVDA had some positive news overnight. The rest of the session was met with selling. I did consider placing an order overnight for the SPY July puts but did not. It would not have gotten filled anyway even with the early gains at the price I was looking to pay. Another missed opportunity. I'm expecting the PPI to come in higher than expected tomorrow but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now beginning to roll over but still remain overbought. Gold dropped $22 on the futures. The US dollar continues higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell three points and GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was average. GDX tested its 50 day moving average again and bounced off of it. The short term indicators are back at mid-range. The Bollinger bands continue to converge as to imply that the next move here will be big. Which way is the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today. The short term indicators are still heading higher. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. It appears that I've missed the SPY put trade with 3 days to go in the July option cycle. It would have been pretty risky but risk is part of the game. We'll keep our eyes open for the next perceived opportunity. Asia up and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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