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Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Stocks took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 507 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow is now within striking distance of reaching a new all time high. It would join the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. The S&P remains short term overbought. We are getting a short term sell signal from one of our indicators. Lately however it has taken a couple of days after getting the signal for stocks to head lower. And they haven't gone that far down when they do start to drop. I'm still willing to try the SPY August puts here soon though. Gold dropped $42 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower again but interest rates moved up. The XAU dipped 2 1/3 and GDX slipped about 2/3. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have turned lower but it isn't completely overbought just yet. I'm on the sidelines here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an upside market. It appears that the converging Bollinger bands have foretold a rally. The short term indicators here are not yet completely oversold so there is probably more room to go to the upside in the near term. Asia and Europe finished higher as the recent tariff news was viewed as positive. A light week for economic data but plenty of earnings news to digest. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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