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Thursday, July 31, 2025

There was another downside reversal today as stocks had a huge gap higher at the open only to give it all back and then some. The Dow fell 330 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The inflation data came in about where expected. Good tech earnings powered the market early. But then sellers took over. I'm not sure if was an end of the month positioning or what. The Dow once again led the way lower. The NASDAQ had a minor loss with a modest drop for the S&P 500. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over. Unless things turn around tomorrow I've missed the SPY August put trade. I canceled my open order there overnight and it would not have gotten filled even with the strong open. There is obviously something going on here but I can't quite figure it out yet. Gold lost $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed for the most part. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX is not yet completely short term oversold. The up trend line for GDX that began in the beginning of the year comes in at 50. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX, which I thought was going to move lower from here, jumped up. That fits a down market. The short term indicators now for the VIX are moving higher with plenty of room to go. This should make tomorrow interesting. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. The jobs report will take center stage as we close out the week tomorrow.

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