Wednesday, July 09, 2025
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 213 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that is a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. My SPY July put order came within a tick of being filled this morning and then I canceled it. It appears to me that the couple days of selling that we just saw will be it for now and the S&P 500 will probably go on to new all time highs again soon. I could be wrong. I may try the SPY put idea again early next week if we continue higher from here. The up trend line from the beginning of April remains intact on the S&P daily chart. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates moved lower. The XAU rose 2 2/3 and GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are turning back up. GDX has held in here at its lower Bollinger band and its 50 day moving average. If it makes it down to the up trend line at 49 perhaps I'll consider the August calls at that level. It continues to be overbought on a weekly basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an upside market. Still short term oversold here. The VIX is well below 20 and trending towards 15. A move down to that level would be supportive for stocks and lead to more new all time highs in my opinion. I'm guessing that's what we'll see here in the coming days. The NASDAQ got there today. Asia was lower with the exception of Japan and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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