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Thursday, July 17, 2025

Moving higher as the Dow gained 229 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance. Remaining short term overbought for the S&P which has been the case for weeks. This will end and we certainly want to own some SPY puts when it does. But markets can stay overbought for extended periods of time and that is what we are seeing now. I am considering owning some SPY puts at some point in the August option cycle. Gold was off $14 on the futures but did come up from the lows on the session. The US dollar was higher while interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX dropped 5/8. Volume was light. GDX is still flirting with its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have now turned down. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators here have rolled over. The VIX still implies higher stock prices to come in the near term. The Bollinger bands on this indicator are beginning to converge here. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the week with expiration Friday tomorrow.

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