Monday, July 14, 2025
A one day upside reversal to begin the week as we opened lower and closed higher. The Dow rose 88 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trending higher. The NASDAQ led the way higher and closed at a new high but the gains overall were small. Waiting on inflation data tomorrow. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. If we get upside there tomorrow I may try the SPY July puts ahead of the PPI due out on Wednesday. It would be a pretty risky trade with only a few days left in the July option cycle so we'll see. Gold lost ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume. Both finished well off of the highs for the session. GDX remains in a channel and the Bollinger bands are still tight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with a positive market. The short term indicators here have now turned higher. Not sure what the VIX is implying from here. Where we go in the short term will be influenced by the CPI and PPI in the coming days. Tariff noise seems to be getting discounted for now. The S&P has been overbought for quite a while and that won't last forever. Asia and Europe started the week mixed. We'll see how markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.
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