Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Selling in the morning and buying in the afternoon. The Dow gained 231 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to head sideways. The Dow was the leader today. The PPI data was lighter than expected which was the opposite of what I thought would happen. Regardless, sellers took over early before buyers surfaced for the rest of the day. The SPY July put idea is now over and we'll look to the August option cycle for the next trade. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and I still like the idea of the index puts but we'll let the rest of this week pass before trying that. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves either way on light volume. The Bollinger bands on the gold share indices still imply a big move coming for this group soon. Perhaps we'll just jump on board when it occurs instead of trying to figure out which way it will go. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after making it up through its 50 day moving average early on. This implies lower near term VIX readings and higher stock prices. We'll see. The short term indicators are still at the mid-range level. The market is still at the mercy of the next headline and we are into earnings season once again. Asia and Europe closed generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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