Wednesday, September 27, 2023
Trying to stabalize as the Dow fell 68 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. Volatile today as we bounced around trying to find direction. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had very slight gains to end the day. But we haven't seen the blow out heavy volume wash out that probably needs to occur to end the decline. I'm still looking for 4200 on the S&P as the most probable resting stop. What happens there will determine if the decline is over. Both short and medium term oversold for the S&P so I'm inclined to think that we're coming to the end of the selling very soon. But the market goes where it wants as we have seen when we've crossed the zero line in the summation index. No SPY trades just yet after we missed this recent bout of selling. Gold got pounded again as the futures fell $25 and closed below the $1900 level. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost over 2 3/4, while GDX shed over 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside as the near term support for the gold shares did not hold. I did purchase some more closer to the money GDX October calls this morning and that was a mistake. The GDX October calls that I am holding are all showing losses. Gold and the gold shares are in free fall. I should have taken my losses on yesterdays gold shares call options and been done with that idea. However the techncial picture here is so blown out to the oversold and downside that I cannot imagine some kind of snap back not take place soon. But I could be wrong. Sometimes markets go farther and faster than you think and we may just be in one of those times. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today but remains short term overbought. Not sure what to expect next here with regards to the VIX. Coming up to the end of the month and inflation data on Friday. Not sure what to expect but we'll still look for 4200 on the S&P as the spot to see some serious buying. Asia was up and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
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