Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Some volatility returned on Tuesday as the Dow fell 106 points on light volume. The advance/declines remain negative. The summation index continues sideways for now. We had a sell off in the morning and spent the rest of the day clawing back. The Dow was the leader lower and that's not the most bearish scenario. The market has a feel of wanting to go higher here but we'll have to wait for tomorrows reaction to the Fed. The technical picture for the S&P 500 has some of the indicators getting oversold but not all. The daily candlestick chart has a potential hammer put in today, which would be bullish. This hammer configuration is also on some of the other major index daily charts. But we'll have to get through whatever the Fed has in store for us tomorrow. We are remaining on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was off a buck on the futures today. The US dollar was flat and interest rates rose. The XAU dropped 2 points and GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. I still have an open order out there for the GDX October calls. If the indicators here continue to fall I will probably have to give up on this trade attempt. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was slightly higher today and fell back from its best levels. It does remains below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators on the VIX are now mid-range so it could go either way. It is a seasonally weak period for the stock market but I do think that there's a good chance to see a rally from here. I could be wrong. We'll know more as we go along. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. All eyes and ears on the Fed Wednesday.
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