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Friday, September 01, 2023

Employment data came in just about where expected and the Dow rose 115 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Early strength was sold off and a couple of hours into the day we were negative. But the market spent the rest of the day trying to move higher. Our idea of buying the SPY puts on early strength would have had to be a pretty quick trade in order for it to work and that is not what we are looking for. Might try the SPY September puts at some point next week. The Dow leading the way today isn't the most bullish scenario as the NASDAQ posted a very slight loss. The S&P 500 had a small gain and remains short term overbought. It was a good week for equities but the volume was light and we do not trust light volume rallies. The summation index turning back up is a huge plus for the bulls though. Gold finished flat on the day and off of its best levels. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn lower. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there as I still believe in this idea going forward for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and is close to breaking below the 13 level. It remains short term oversold and looks like it wants to stay that way. This is another supporting factor for stocks at the moment. Less than two weeks to go in the September option cycle as we begin a long holiday weekend in the US. Summer will unofficially be over and everyone should be back at their desks on Tuesday. I don't have a good feel for where things are going to go but we are short term overbought for the major indices. However in rallies they simply stay that way. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the remaining September option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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