Tuesday, September 26, 2023
Down we go as the market got clobbered today. The Dow fell 388 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and throught the zero line. Hence we get days like today when things fall apart for no apparent reason. Oversold, staying that way and that's a recipe for disaster. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. Another day like today will get us to 4200 on the S&P 500 and I would expect to see some buyers show up at that level. But who knows? Things are very over-extended to the downside at the moment on a technical basis. I suppose yesterdays price action was an attempt at a bounce that failed. End of the month coming up on Friday and I don't see any reason for players to step up to the plate ahead of that. It's a bloodbath but it could get worse if we don't hold things up at the S&P 500 200 day moving average at around 4200. That's also where the longer term up trend line from last October lies. It appears that's where we're headed. Gold dropped $18 on the futures. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX was off 3/4. Volume was light. I did cancel my open order for the GDX October calls before the market opened. I then placed it again during the session and it was filled. I'm early here as the gold shares are oversold now and staying that way like the overall market. The trade is already showing a loss. I'm considering taking the loss tomorrow and trying to get the calls at a closer to the money strike price. I'm also considering getting out and heading to the sidelines. I'll ponder my choices overnight. Gold is not being sought as a safe haven and the fundamental picture here remains negative. That said, the technical picture is a buy here. Plenty of time left in the October option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up and closed above its 200 day moving average. It is short term oversold. Still below the important level of 20 but if it gets above there we'll only see increased selling. September is living up to its reputation as a poor time for the bulls. Tomorrow could get interesting as buyers are nowhere to be found. Europe and Asia were down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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