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Friday, September 29, 2023

We had a one day reversal to the dowside to finish the month as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 158 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving down. The inflation data came in where expected which led to a higher market open. But the sellers then took over and most of the major indices finished in the red. Perhaps it was the final dumping of shares for the 3rd quarter. The NASDAQ did manage to post a very small gain. It looks like whatever small bounce that we saw in the market is over. The S&P remains short term oversold. Perhaps next week we'll make it down to the 4200 level but I think that will be about it for this decline. The short term technical indicators for most of the major averages have been blown out to the downside for an extended period. This can last longer than you think but it cannot last forever. I could be wrong but around the 4200 level should be the bottom for the S&P 500 for this move. Gold dropped another $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished about unchanged while interest rates fell. The gold shares had a negative one day reversal as well. The XAU and GDX finished will slight fractional losses on average volume. My GDX October calls remain entrenched in the red. Do I think there is nay chance for this trade to come back? Perhaps, as the gold shares are overdue for some kind of bounce. However if the overall market continues to fall, the gold shares will most likely follow as they have been. Still short term oversold on GDX and that condition cannot last forever as well. It is probably a cut the loss situation for this trade though as the entry timing was early. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go higher. That would not bode well for stocks. We have the weekend upon us and a potential US government shut down to consider. Probably not a positive for the markets if it occurs but as always the market goes where it wants. We'll begin the month of Octobers trading on Monday. Going over the charts as usual the next couple of days. Europe and Asia were generally higher. China is on holiday for a week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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