Thursday, September 21, 2023
Sellers have taken over as the Dow lost 370 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It is approaching the zero line and it looks like it will pass through it. That doesn't happen often. The market is in the falling apart mode at the moment. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and staying that way which is never a good sign. How far down will we go? We've got a longer term up trend line and the 200 day moving average coming in at 4200 give or take for the S&P. So it looks like we're at least headed to that level. We've got some head and shoulders patterns on some of the other major indices just getting started so this decline has room to run. Can't see any reason for things to turn around but we may get some bounces to relieve the oversold conditions. We'll remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now as we obviously missed this move lower. Plenty of time remaining in the October option cycle. Gold dropped over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX slid over 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over and have room to go lower. I'm not sure why I'm still a believer in this GDX October call trade but I'm keeping my open order out there. Another day like today will get it filled. I'll have to think about this trade idea over tonight. The gold shares could actually be headed much lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and is getting to short term overbought. It is now above the upper Bollinger band but still below the important 20 level. Below the 200 day moving average as well but we'll see what happens tomorrow. Volatilty is making a comeback. Look out below is how we can sum up what's going on in the stock market right now. I doubt we'll see a lot of buyers ahead of the weekend but who knows? Realistically the trend is down until further notice. Asia and Europe were down as it's a worldwide head for the exits. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.
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