Thursday, September 14, 2023
The big move showed up as projected by the McClellan oscillator as the Dow soared 331 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The Dow outperformed today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The inflation data came in hot and the market didn't care. The S&P 500 made it back above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators there are turning back up. Perhaps September won't be such a cruel month this year. But we've still got a couple of weeks to go. Not yet short term overbought for the S&P so perhaps we'll continue higher. Or todays positive price action could just be option expiration related. We'll continue to monitor the price action. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher, while interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 1 3/4, GDX was up 3/8. Volume remains light. Once again the gold shares are doing better than gold itself and that is bullish going forward. The short term indicators for GDX are at mid-range. My open order for the GDX October calls is still out there but this idea has been hanging around for a while now. It appears that we could simply have already missed this opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed at a new low for the year. That is bullish. The short term indicators are oversold and staying that way which is the indication of a rally. I'm not sure how long this conditon can persist but it's usually longer than you think. Not to mention that a market that rallies on what is perceived as bad news is bullish. So perhaps we're on our way to new recovery highs for the year. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes to close out the week.
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