Friday, September 22, 2023
An attempt at stabalization would best describe todays market action as the Dow fell 106 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving lower and heading to the zero line. The Dow was the underperformer today. Not a lot of volatilty today as things basically progressed sideways. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I still think that it's headed towards 4200. We are due for some kind of bounce though as the market is stretched to the downside short term. But there isn't much positive out there right now and we are in a weak seasonal time frame. It appears that a collapse has started and we'll have to see how low things go. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. My open order is still out there but I will most likely be adjusting it over the weekend. The gold shares will probably follow the overall market south in the near term and I need to take that into consideration. I do still like the idea of the GDX October calls but the entry timing will have to be pretty good in order for this idea to work. Plenty of time left in the October option cycle as it had an extra week in the time frame. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower today and is short term overbought. Still below the 200 day moving average here and not close to the 20 level. That doesn't mean that stocks can't go lower though. There is no denying that we had a sudden change in market perceptions this week. So we need to change our way of thinking about the current market as well. Sellers are in charge until further notice. With the zero line in plain view on the summation index, things could fall apart even quicker than we think. So keep that in mind going forward. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend keeping those things in mind. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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