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Thursday, September 28, 2023

Today we got the bounce that we've been looking for as the Dow gained 116 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that is a plus for the bulls. However we are not sure if this is a dead cat bounce or the beginning of actually trying to find a bottom. We still haven't gotten to the 4200 level on the S&P 500 but perhaps yesterdays low of 4240 was enough. There is a bullish bottoming pattern on the S&P daily candlestick chart after todays price action. But that could all change tomorrow if we get a high inflation reading with a big market sell off. End of the month tomorrow as well. So the jury is still out on where we go from here. Still short term oversold on the major stock indices despite todays rise. No doubt some short covering today ahead of the inflation news. Gold dropped another $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. Both my October GDX call positions at different strike prices are solid losers. The only thing that this trade still has going for it is that there is a lot of time left in the October option cycle. The gold shares remain short term oversold. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are trying to move lower but are not doing so convincingly. More overbought than oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. My guess is that tomorrows market action will be dictated by the reaction to the inflation data. I have no idea what to expect. One thing for sure is that it will be interesting to see how the month of September ends. Europe higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week, month and quarter tomorrow.

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