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Friday, October 01, 2021

A bounce back today as the Dow climbed 482 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. It was a good start to the month of October for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. The Dow is still leading and the NASDAQ is still the laggard. That isn't the most positive scenario. Todays price action seemed more like a short squeeze than the beginning of a rally but the 4300 level has held for the S&P 500. There's now a potential short term double bottom in place there. I sold my SPY October puts for a 60% gain. The profit could have been a lot better had I dumped them earlier in the day. The entry on the trade was OK but the exit stunk even with a gain. I might try the puts again with two weeks still left in the October option cycle. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. Both the US dollar along with interest rates were lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. GDX remains oversold and seems stuck there at this point. The fundamental factors for gold seem bearish right now. I am still looking at the January GDX calls but not with any urgency. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as the SPY put trade was not what I had hoped it would be. I almost feel that I would have been better off just keeping it. But I did want at least some kind of profit out of it because if we see some upside follow through on Monday it probably would have returned to break even. The VIX dropped and the short term indicators turned back down which implies higher stock prices going forward. The VIX does remain above the 20 level though. The S&P does still have tops below tops and bottoms below bottoms which is the definition of a down trend. The bounce back today came right back to the neckline of the head and shoulders top. Another day higher will negate that pattern. There will be plenty to ponder over this weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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