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Thursday, October 14, 2021

The Dow roared ahead today and gained 534 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving higher. Inflation data was slightly weaker than expected and that will be the excuse. The S&P 500 broke above the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of September. Depending on where you draw the neckline, a case can be made that the inverse head and shoulders pattern for the S&P is valid. It would imply a run to new all time highs in the coming weeks. The only drawback here is the light volume. However for now it looks like declines can be bought as the tone of the market has changed. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. Interest rates continued their decline and the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU rose another 3 points, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was good. The trend is now up for the gold shares and we will be purchasing some calls on the next pullback. Short term overbought now for GDX. We will be looking for a throw back to the down trend line that was just broken. Somewhere around the 31 level although the ideal time to buy the calls has passed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is comfortably below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are oversold but I'm not looking for any kind of move back above 20 anytime soon. The down trend for stocks has run its course for now. November has an extra week in its option cycle so premiums will be high. I suppose we'll just have to be patient for the next opportunity. Asia was generally higher and Europe up in last nights trade. Expiration Friday on tap for tomorrow.

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