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Wednesday, October 06, 2021

We had a one day upside reversal as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 102 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues sideways. It appears that the S&P 500 is putting in a bottom at around the 4300 level. We've held in there for about a week and the short term indicators are turning up. I am still considering though, getting some SPY puts again at the down trend line that now comes in at 4400 on the S&P. We could get there by the end of the week or perhaps tomorrow if there is any follow through upside. It's a risky trade with only seven days to go in the October option cycle. Gold was up around five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU gained two points, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. Getting the GDX October calls has been missed as we have already moved higher there. The short term technical indicators for GDX have moved up as well. I'm still considering the January calls here if we move back lower as time goes on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level. I'm not getting any decent signals from this indicator lately. Or perhaps I'm just not seeing things here clearly. Stock markets are trying to hold up here now but it remains to be seen if they'll be successful. I kind of think they will be but we'll know for sure if and when we get back to the down trend line. What happens there will tell the story. I'm still leaning towards getting the SPY puts again. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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