Friday, October 15, 2021
The rally continued as the Dow ws up 382 points on light volume for an option expiration Friday. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving higher. All signs are pointing to new all time highs coming in the near future. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought but remains that way in uptrends. The TRAN has led things higher this go round. One of the caveats here is the light volume. We also have the Dow as the outperformer which isn't overly bullish. We'd rather see the NASDAQ lead the way. But we do have enough going in a positive direction to see the rally continue. The breadth today doesn't match the price gains, so some near term weakness would not be a surprise. But all in all you'd have to say we'll be moving higher from here. Gold dropped over $25 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates moved up. Although GDX broke through its down trend line from September, gold itself did not and was turned back today. However the gold shares leading the way is bullish and I do expect higher prices in this complex going forward. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. They remain short term overbought. I did place an open order for some GDX January calls that will take some decline in GDX in order to get filled. A pullback to the down trend line just broken might do the trick. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is short term oversold. During rallies the VIX stays oversold for an extended period of time. My guess is that is what we are about to see in this indicator. It was a constructive week for the S&P 500. The weekly chart indicators are in the process of or have already turned back up. That says that the rally will continue and probably the coming earnings will be the catalyst. The S&P just had a 5% correction and it looks like that was enough at the moment. Of course things could change going forward but for now it appears that declines can be bought. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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