Wednesday, October 13, 2021
It was a back and forth session with the Dow finishing basically unchanged. Volume remains light. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The inflation data was a bit higher than expected but did not have the effect on market action that I expected. The short term indicators for the S&P remain mid-range so there's still a chance for things to go either way. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500 has yet to resolve itself or fail. I'm getting the feeling that it will be valid and break through the controlling down trend line and change the scenario from bear to bull. The market breadth has shown improvement lately. We'll see what happens as time goes on. More inflation data out tomorrow. Gold took off to the upside and the futures gained around thirty bucks. The US dollar fell along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 4 1/4, while GDX gained a point. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX closed above its 50 day moving average. It also broke through a down trend line that has been in effect for months. We missed out on the GDX October calls. The next time GDX gets short term oversold, we will try the calls. The weekly chart for GDX has just began to rise and it looks like there is plenty of upside to come in the future. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving averge. The short term indicators here are oversold but can remain that way during market rises. If stocks continue higher tomorrow, we'll know we are in one of those instances. If the market rolls back over, then the down trend line on the S&P 500 is still in charge. I think we're at an important juncture for stocks going forward. We'll have to see how it turns out with only a couple of days left in the October option cycle. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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