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Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Another day and another decline as the Dow fell 117 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is still tracking sideways. Waiting on the inflation data would probably be the best way to describe todays price action or lack of. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now mid-range so things could go either way here. Although I was committed to the downside there is a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily S&P chart. With only 3 days to go in the October option cycle, as much as I'd like to attempt another trade here the prudent choice would be to stay on the sidelines. We'll see. Gold gained $7 on the December contract. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was better than average. The gold shares are getting close to short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and is hanging around the 20 level. It is oversold but not extremely so. Hanging around its 200 day moving average. I'm not getting a good feel for which way it is going to go here. When in doubt, stay out is an old market adage. I suppose I won't be surprised one way or the other with what happens tomorrow. I probably still would like to own those SPY puts that got stopped out. That was the original plan for the week. I can't think that the inflation reports due in the next couple of days won't show added price pressure. We'll find out tomorrow. The recent lighter market volume also shows not a lot on interest in owning stocks right now. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what Wednesday brings.

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