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Monday, October 04, 2021

The week began on a sour note for the bulls as the Dow fell 322 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower again but remains in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and as long as that's the case the trend will be down. Some negative news on FB was the backdrop. Nine days to go in the October option cycle. I'm hoping for some kind of bounce back to the down trend line in the SPY that comes in at 440 to try the puts again. But hope isn't a trading strategy. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but we are coming to the first level of suport at 4250-4200. The NASDAQ is also coming to its first support zone of 14200 to 14000. My guess is that things hold at these areas for at least a little while and maybe longer. I'd like to try the SPY puts again if we do get back to the down trend line while still in the October option cycle. That's the idea for now. Gold was up seven bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up about 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was above average. I'm considering a short term trade now in GDX for the October cycle. Perhaps getting some GDX October calls ahead of the employment report. GDX remains both short and medium term oversold. The short term technical indicators have started to turn back up. However I may be late on this idea as today might have been the time to purchase the October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that wasn't what I expected on Friday. The short term indicators are mid-range. As long as the VIX remains above the 20 level we can expect more volatility. That's about the only thing that I can say for certain here about the VIX. Europe and Asia were lower to start the week. China remains on holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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