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Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Getting closer to new all time highs as the Dow was up 199 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The rally lives on as the S&P 500 is now short term overbought. We may see a pause here but not a decline that can be traded in my view. How high we go will be determined by the coming earnings reports. The option premiums on the SPY November calls are still pretty pricey as they include the extra trading week in this cycle. Patience for now. Gold was up around $5 on the December futures contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU gained 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/4. Volume was very light. The gold shares remain short term overbought but just like the overall stock market they can stay that way during rallies. My open order for the GDX January calls will only be filled if we see some decline. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and that fits an up market. Remaining short term oversold as well. It still points to this rally having legs. We may see some hesitation for the S&P here as we are close to the all time high. But that would just be temporary in my view as the measuring objective of the reverse head and shoulders pattern for the S&P points to higher prices from here. So we'll ride the tide higher and take it from there. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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