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Thursday, September 30, 2021

The selling continued as we completed the month of September as the Dow fell 547 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move back down again. It was a one day downside reversal as we opened higher and closed lower. We also had a sharp drop in the final half hour. The Dow was the leader to the downside today. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. However we did break the neckline of the head and shoulders formation on the daily chart. That does imply lower prices going forward. My SPY October puts are still in the black and gained some ground today. I'd like to hold this trade until the beginning of next week but I'm not exactly sure about that. The measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern is a lot lower from here. Gold rallied as the futures gained thirty dollars. Both interest rates and the US dollar were slightly lower. Perhaps we are beginning to see a flight to safety in these assets. The XAU gained almost 2 points, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but not as much as expected with a down 500 market. It remains above the 20 level and is not yet overbought. The short term indicators are mid-range so it appears that the market can go either way from here according to the VIX. Win or lose the trading is never easy. As much as I'd like to book the profit here, I also don't want to leave money on the table. There's still a little over two weeks to go in the October option cycle. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow and how the week closes out. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll close out a volatile trading week tomorrow.

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