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Thursday, September 23, 2021

Quite a rally today as the Dow climbed 506 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The Dow was up over 600 but we faded in the last two hours. We've gone through the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 and more than filled the gap formed on Monday. All Fibanocci retracement levels have been passed. I did place an overnight order for some SPY October puts and it was never filled even with todays huge gains. I'm leaving it out there but will reconsider this idea tonight. It appears that the decline is over but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows. Or not. Plenty to ponder here at the moment. Gold lost twenty bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar. Interest rates were up though. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX was off almost 2/3. Volume was average. I'm back to the sidelines with regards to a GDX call trade. We've broken the 30 level there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX plummeted below the 20 level today and the 200 day moving average. It seems to be forecasting higher stock prices ahead. Not yet oversold here. I think if we close below the 50 day moving average in the VIX tomorrow we can say the decline is over for now. Perhaps I should simply be patient to try the SPY October puts later here or just forget about that trade and look elsewhere. I'll think it over tonight. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out a wild and volatile week tomorrow.

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