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Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Today we got the bounce as the Dow gained 236 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The SPY September calls that I have made it all the way back to break even so I'll hold them until the retail sales report tomorrow morning. If we get some follow through buying they might actually turn a small profit. Plenty of risk with just a couple of days to go though. No news to account for todays gains, just the technical nature of the market in my opinion. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold dropped over ten bucks on the futures. Interest rates ticked up and the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains again despite the drop in gold itself. That's usually a positive. Volume was very light so I don't know how much you can read in to the price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators pointing down here still imply higher stock prices going forward. My guess is that the SPY option market makers would like the index to finish around 450 on the week for the best possible outcome for them. That's how the volume stacks up there right now. I don't think that we'll get above 450 by the close on Friday. Again, that's a guess on my part. We'll focus on what happens at the open tomorrow and hopefully I can get out of the current trade unscathed. Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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