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Monday, September 20, 2021

The market got clobbered today as the Dow fell 614 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It could have been worse as the Dow was off close to a thousand points before we got a final hour bounce. There was a huge gap down at the open and things just got worse from there. We are short term oversold on the S&P and staying that way. That is never a good sign. The excuse for todays decline is a Chinese real estate company about to go under. But we'll stick with the technicals as always. I've got support for the S&P 500 at 4200 and if that doesn't hold 4000. So I think we've still got plenty of downside work to do. There's also an outside chance crash possibility as the summation index is heading down to the zero line. I still favor the SPY October puts but let's see some kind of bounce to try those. Gold was up over ten bucks on the futures in a flight to safety. The US dollar finished little changed, while interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/3 and GDX shed 1/8. Volume was good. I'm back to looking at the gold shares here on the safety and fear factor that we now see in the marketplace. I did look at the GDX October calls but the premiums were pretty pricey. I'll consider this idea again tomorrow. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and would have closed even higher had we not gotten the final hour push up. It is overbought on the short term indicators so a drop in the VIX would not be a surprise. However it's well above the 20 level and that implies more volatility to come as long as things stay that way. The 200 day moving average is also at 20. The ideal scenario would be a move back to 20 in order to purchase the SPY October calls and then we'd go from there. The market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. We've still got the Fed to deal with on Wednesday but that may take a back seat to the China woes. The fact that the market over there is closed again tomorrow adds to the uncertainty of what is about to happen. Interesting times. Europe and Asia sold off hard too. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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