Friday, September 10, 2021
We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 271 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. Down every day this week and 5 days in a row for the Dow. Any weakness on Monday can be bought for a bounce trade and that's what I'll be looking to do. I did place a late order for the SPY September calls but it wasn't filled. If we get some selling on Monday morning, I'll be purchasing the calls. Once the bounce is complete next week I'll be looking to trade the SPY puts. Rallies are being sold now as the market has changed from buying the dips. We are already short term oversold in the Dow. Buying the SPY calls on Monday and selling them on Tuesday is not out of the question. If the market simply takes off to the upside Monday morning we'll count this as another missed idea. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. Interest rates rose and the US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. Getting to short term oversold for GDX but not quite there yet. But I am keeping in mind that if the market takes a dramatic fall in the coming weeks it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above the 20 level today and closed above its 200 day moving average. In recent months when the VIX has gotten above the 200 day it has quickly moved back down below it. I'm counting on that occurring again now for the SPY bounce trade. Another one of my reliable S&P 500 technical indicators is also signaling a short term buy. It will be risky with only a week to go in the September option cycle. Not to mention that the trend has turned to downward for stocks. That said, I would certainly like to give it a go on Monday. I'll be checking the charts this weekend to double check my work. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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