Almost another triple digit move as the Dow fell 96 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  However it appears that the summation index is actually moving sideways at this time.  I can't say that I understand the market dynamics at this point.  We are trying to find our way here.  The up trend line from October is still intact.  As long as that holds, I'll continue with a bullish posture and call for new all time highs at some point this month.  My OEX January calls are going to be big losers and will probably expire worthless.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was average.  Waiting on Fridays earnings here.  That will most likely determine the outcome of the GE March call trade.  Gold continues to rally as it gained over $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher today.  The XAU was up 2 7/8.  The gold shares had good volume to the upside and that is a positive sign.  The fact that gold can rally with oil declining and the dollar rising is something to take note of.  However gold and the gold shares are now overbought.  USO fell 7/8 and I sold the USO February calls for a 90% loss.  The stop loss order did not work here as well and that is something that I will have to correct on my own.  The discipline required to trade must be followed or losses will just continue to pile up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what to think of the market here as the technicals are mid-range.  We could go either way.  The positive expiration week bias is not evident yet.  The lack of upside follow through to last weeks gains on Wednesday and Thursday is not positive.  The bearish belt hold candlestick pattern on the daily Dow chart is a concern.  Plenty of economic data this week, with retail sales numbers and inflation stats.  So expect some volatility.  Oil continues its drop and trying the USO calls was a bad move on my part.  Mistakes cost money in this game.  My ideas haven't worked out so far in 2015.  Perhaps I will just stick to one trade at a time for a while.  I am also seriously considering trading the SPY options because the liquidity appears to be far greater than for the OEX.  But I won't actually know if that's the case until I put some orders in.  The gold shares have been the place to be so far for the beginning of the year.  We'll see how that continues to play out going forward.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.  

Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 170 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The employment report took a back seat to the terror problems in France.  Headline events are difficult to trade since they are very unpredictable.  With today decline the market can go either way from here and doesn't give us a good sense of direction.  It appears I should have taken the loss for the OEX January calls yesterday but hindsight always gives the best results.  It means nothing now.  We are working off the recent oversold technical condition of the stock indices.  The indicators are now mid-range.  We do have expiration week coming up.  We'll see if it has the usual positive bias.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  This chart has a distinctive bearish look to it after todays price action.  That could be a precursor for the overall market.  GE did not really participate in the two day rally this week.  That could be a problem.  I think we'll know more after the earnings in a week.  My GE March calls are still losers.  Gold was up over $7 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 2 7/8, while GDX was up almost a point.  USO dropped 1/4.  The USO February call trade is most certainly going to be a loser at this rate.  Do not try and pick bottoms.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment numbers came in at about what was expected.  The market is being held hostage by fear at the moment due to the troubles overseas.  Perhaps that will subside over the weekend.  One week to go in the January option cycle.  It looks like my trading year is going to start off like last year ended.  With extended losses that were not cut short.  Even with stop loss orders.  Perhaps I am trading too many things at the same time.  Regardless, it's where we go from here that matters.  I can't say that I have a good idea about the next move in the stock indexes.  The daily candlestick charts on some of the indices show a bearish belt hold pattern.  That could be reversed if we get a strong up session on Monday.  However the lack of follow through after being up over 300 points isn't positive.  The gold shares have acted much better to start the new year.  The acts of terror help support the price of gold in a flight to safety.  The fact that the gold shares have led gold itself here is a positive.  However we are overbought at this point and getting calls here is not advised.  But who knows?  Perhaps gold will break out but I think that it has to get through $1240 to really find some interest.  I'll be deciding what to do with my open positions over the weekend.  I think most likely the losses should be taken so I can move on to something else.  It isn't a confidence booster, that's for sure.  Plenty of charts to check and I'll keep an eye on the headlines as well.  it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The snap back rally could be more than that as the Dow soared 323 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive again.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  No need for the market to wait for tomorrows employment report.  The volatility here is tremendous, with 100 point plus moves becoming the norm.  Perhaps my scenario of a strong start to the new year will pan out.  But as usual the market will go where it wants.  However if we continue like this, new all time highs cannot be far away.  My OEX January calls have a bid on them again.  I guess I'll just hold on at this point and see what happens.  GE finally participated somewhat with a gain of 1/4.  Volume was good but I would have liked to see GE move in sync with the overall market.  It is a laggard here.  My GE March calls are back where I purchased them.  Gold fell a couple bucks as the US dollar continues to grind higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was light though.  USO was up 1/8 or so.  My USO February calls are still losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This is one of the craziest starts to the new year that I can remember.  First the world was coming to an end and now we've risen over 500 points in two days.  Who knows what tomorrow will bring?  We'll get the employment numbers and that will be the excuse to move things one way or the other.  Technically we're moving off of a short and medium term oversold condition.  How long it lasts is another story.  If we see all time new highs in short order, that would be a big positive in my mind.  So we'll see.  The USO trade looks like a loser but now there is a chance that the OEX January call trade won't be a total loss.  Earnings for GE next Friday will probably determine the outcome of that trade.  I can't say I have any idea what will happen tomorrow.  But if we finish the week on a positive note, that will bode well for things going forward.  After the very weak start to the week, a comeback would be very bullish.  We'll see how the foreign markets react overnight and keep an eye out for the jobs numbers tomorrow.

The bounce appeared on cue as the Dow rose 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The question is the decline over or will we be heading lower?  My view is that the decline has ended.  That doesn't mean that we can't back and fill for a while.  But we are at technical levels that rallies have started from in the recent past.  A turn up in the summation index will support this view.  But who knows?  The market may surprise us here.  I did not think we would start the year off this negative.  My OEX January calls at least now have a bid, so perhaps they won't expire worthless.  GE was flat on the session with good volume.  My GE March calls are slightly in the red.  Gold was off around $8 in the futures market.  The US dollar continued its rise higher.  It has been quite a run here with no signs of letting up.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was lighter on the decline and that's a positive.  USO was up 1/3 as oil tries to stabilize again.  Hasn't happened yet.  I would guess that when it does we will see quite a bounce with short covering.  My USO February calls are losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bounce in the stock indices where we needed to see one.  The up trend line from October remains intact.  If we do roll over here and take out that line, then I will have to change my bullish stance.  Anything could happen as always in this game.  My OEX calls are running out of time but I will at least wait for Fridays employment report.  This trade will be a loser, it is just a matter of how much.  GE isn't acting as I would like but the earnings are due next week and that should get things moving one way or the other.  USO didn't drop today but there is always tomorrow.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

More downside for the stock market as the Dow fell 130 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We opened higher, tried to come back and dropped off again at the end.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still short term oversold and right at an important up trend line in the S&P 500.  I do think that we will hold here.  Perhaps it will be the Fed minutes or maybe oil will stop going down but we are overdue for some upside.  If we do not hold up here, then I would begin to worry that things will be a lot worse for the market.  My technical indicators are at levels that previously led to rallies for the stock indices.  It won't help my OEX January calls though as they are already worthless.  If you can't get filled when your stop loss order is touched, then what is the point?  GE was off another 1/2 and volume was very heavy.  Climatic in my opinion.  My GE March calls were a partial fill on the stop loss order and I sold the rest at the market to exit that trade.  Lousy execution there and it made the loss 60%.  I am certainly not happy with the way my recent trades have been treated by the exchanges.  That said, I moved down a strike price and placed another order for the GE March calls.  It was filled.  I'm still a believer in this trade.  Gold continued to find flight to safety buyers as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU was up 4 points and GDX gained a point.  The gold shares are breaking out and that is the place to be.  ABX up 1/3, GG added 1 1/2 and NEM gained 3/4.  Volume was good.  USO lost 3/4 and the market moved right through my stop loss price again without being filled.  I've canceled that order and will have to monitor this trade myself.  I probably should just get out and take the loss.  The beginning of this year so far is filled with mistakes and wrong trading moves.  Trading USO instead of the gold shares is the biggest so far.  Mentally I'm at a loss as to why my stop loss orders cannot be properly filled.  Perhaps that is the by far the most serious thing happening at the moment.  When trading, cutting your losses is imperative.  Yet when you have orders placed to do that and they never get filled, what can you do?  Perhaps a move to a different online broker is in order.  But the market certainly doesn't care.  We are in a strange current situation, with a crash in oil and no bottom in sight yet there.  The stock market does not do well with uncertainty.  Technically we are due for a bounce.  I do believe it should come tomorrow.  My work says some type of rally is about to take place.  At least we are at technical levels where past rallies have begun.  So we will see what happens.  I am trying the GE March calls again.  If today isn't the bottom for GE, then this trade will fail as well.  So we'll know pretty soon.  USO continues to gap down and the volume is now getting very heavy again.  Perhaps we are at the final washout here or perhaps not.  This could go down as my stupidest trade of the year.  We'll see where the overseas markets end up tonight and go from there.   

We started out the week with a thud and a loud one at that.  The Dow fell 331 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Let me be the first to admit that I do not know what is going on here.  The market knows all.  We are short term oversold but to keep declining with that condition is dangerous.  However the technical condition with regards to the summation index is not anywhere near the crash zone as it was in October.  That doesn't mean we can't fall apart but the odds are against it.  We will find the reasons for the markets weakness as we move along.  Of course my OEX January calls are near worthless after the stop loss order failed to fill.  That does not sit well with me.  But what can you do?  I'll be moving to the SPY options and see how they work out.  GE dropped 1/2 and the volume was good.  Here too, my stop loss order price was hit and not filled.  I have no answer for that.  I may simply just sell out tomorrow.  If there isn't option liquidity in these issues, then I don't know what to say.  Gold was up $17 on the futures and the US dollar was bit higher as well.  Flight to safety would be my guess.  The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX was up 1/2.  The beginning of the year gold share trade looks like a winner.  USO was off 1 1/8 and my February calls here are just about at the stop loss price.  Of course that doesn't mean that it will be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the rough start to the trading year.  Something is going on in the markets that I am at a loss for an explanation.  We are short term oversold and now even more so.  We are also just about at an up trend line from the October lows on the major stock indices.  If that doesn't hold we could be in for a rough period.  Hasn't happened yet.  We did not get any type of downside blow off today in the stock indexes, so there is probably more weakness to come.  Gold found some buyers today and the gold shares as well.  I think that it is too late for a gold share trade here but if we see gold get through the $1240 level it may be worth a look.  Oil continues its free fall and it appears the USO trade that I did was simply a mistake.  A case of trying to find the bottom before the bottom was in.  You pay for your mistakes in this game.  Oil will eventually bounce and probably pretty good.  However from what level has yet to be determined.  We'll see if the worldwide markets follow the US lower overnight and brace for tomorrow. 

An interesting start to the new year as the Dow gained about 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  Not the start that I expected as we opened up pretty good, with around a 75 point gain but gave it all back and then some.  Most of the session was spent in negative territory.  I'm still confident that we will break out to the upside form here.  Getting more short term oversold as we go on in time.  My stop loss order wasn't triggered even though we traded at the price again.  I do not know what is going on there.  The option spread was very wide as well.  I ended up canceling the stop loss order and will figure out what to do over the weekend.  This isn't the first time this has happened to me with the OEX.  I am pretty sure that I will be moving over to trade the SPY.  There seems to be more liquidity over there and the spreads are tight.  The only thing about the SPY that I'm not used to is the speed of the contract.  GE fell around 1/4 and the volume was about average.  The short term technical have rolled over here.  My GE March calls are in the red and getting close to the stop loss point.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures but the US dollar soared to start the new year.  The XAU was up 1 3/4 though which did not fit in with the dollars price movement.  It looks like the beginning of the year gold share call trade would have worked.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  GDX rose over 1/2.  USO fell 1/2 and the volume was pretty good.  My USO February calls are at where I purchased them despite todays loss.  Not exactly sure what to make of that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the traders should return on Monday and we'll see where we go from there.  I'm not sure if the rise in the dollar and lack of gold selling means that there is something brewing somewhere to surprise the markets.  It could just be a one day event.  I'd like to stay with the OEX call trade for now because some of my technical indicators are getting bullish.  But the market can and will do anything.  I also don't like the fact that GE isn't doing well here.  GE acts as a proxy for the market sometimes and if that is the case, then things are weaker than I think.  We'll have to see how things pan out next week.  Plenty of economic data due including the employment report on Friday.  There will be plenty to ponder over the weekend as I have three positions and things are not going as planned.  I'll check the charts and try to come up with a game plan.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An interesting end to the year as the Dow fell 160 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending higher.  I'm not sure what to make of todays action but I am still bullish on the beginning of 2015.  My open order for the OEX January calls wasn't filled even though the premium price was touched.  Once again the trading in the OEX electronic market does not seem legitimate.  I adjusted my order up to get filled but it was not at the price I desired.  I will once again look into the SPY contract to trade the overall stock market.  There appears to be much more liquidity and fairness over there.  That particular contract trades very rapidly and that is something that I am not used to.  Getting short term oversold now for the major stock indices.  GE fell almost 1/3 and the volume picked up from yesterday but is still light.  My March calls here are in the red.  Gold fell back from what it gained yesterday as the US dollar was higher.  The gold shares didn't move much however.  The XAU was off 1/4 and GDX was only slightly lower.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume.  Too late in my opinion to get the January gold share calls here.  USO finished the day up a tad after being lower early.  My open order for the USO February calls was filled.  It is showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I expect Friday to be a positive one for the stock indexes and I would be surprised if it wasn't.  I'm confident in the OEX trade made today but the market as always will go where it wants.  I actually have three trades on at the moment and that is not my usual scenario.  It will be important to get off to a good start in 2015.  I feel that I am positioned to do that.  But who knows?  It's an interesting game.  Tomorrow is a holiday around the world and some markets will be closed on Friday as well.  We should have everybody back at their trading desks on Monday.  I'll be glad to see 2014 come to an end because it was another losing year for me in the options market.  Hopefully the risk control stop loss orders will bode well for a better cap on the losing trades in 2015.  My themes for the beginning of the new year are higher stock prices overall and a bounce in the oil market.  Happy New Year everyone!

Relieving some of the overbought condition today as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  We're still not back to normal market conditions as the light volume attests.  I did place an open order for the OEX January calls.  We'll need to see some more decline for it to get filled.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  My GE March calls are now back in the red.  Plenty of time for this trade to work.  Gold found some buyers today as the futures rose $18.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was higher by 2 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains.  The volume was better than it has been.  GDX was up 2/3.  It's too late for the January call trade here I think.  USO was flat on the day.  I left in my open order for the February calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish up the year tomorrow and I don't expect a lot of movement.  Thursday is a holiday.  I expect Friday to be positive.  Things should be getting back to normal on Monday.  It is a time to be patient and the orders that I have placed hopefully reflect that.  What I mean is that in order for the tickets to be filled we will have to see price action that lowers the premiums.  I may simply cancel the orders before the close tomorrow as well.  I would really like to get the new year going in the right direction.  The past couple of years haven't been my best.  It's all about discipline and timing.  Trading should be thin overnight as well as tomorrow.  We'll see how it goes. 

The market remains in holiday mode as the Dow fell 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  It does not look like there will be an opportunity to purchase the January OEX calls at this rate.  I still expect a good beginning to the new year for the major stock indices.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light.  The GE March calls that I own are still slightly in the black.  Gold was off $13 on the futures as the US dollar was higher yet again.  The trend in the dollar remains intact.  The XAU was off 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  GDX was lower by 3/8.  I'm still considering a GDX trade for the beginning of the year.  USO dropped another 1/2 and I did place an open order here for the February calls.  I'm not sure that this is the proper idea but I am willing to give it a shot at the right price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just waiting for 2015 at this point.  All of the major trading has been completed for the year.  If we do see some weakness in the next couple of sessions perhaps we'll get a chance for the OEX January calls.  But it sure doesn't look like it today.  Gold reversed the gains from the end of last week.  Gold has basically been going nowhere for the past few months.  As long as the dollar remains in rally mode, I doubt we'll see gold go much higher.  But as always the markets go where they want.  Things can change in a hurry but I don't expect anything like that for the next couple of days at least.  We'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there. 

And the beat goes on.  The Dow gained 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Light volume, holiday mode thin trading.  You really can't make too much out of it.  GE fell a nickel again and the volume remains extremely light.  Gold found some buyers today as the futures rose over $20.  The US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU added 1 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Perhaps the expected beginning of the year buying in the gold shares is already taking place.  USO fell 1/4 and the volume was light.  I am considering the USO February calls for a bounce in the beginning of next year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The major players are out of the game at the moment.  Some of them will return next week.  I don't think that things will really get going until January 5th.  I'm looking at getting some OEX January calls if there is some type of pullback.  Perhaps the GDX January calls but it may be too late there.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market closed early today as we are in holiday mode.  The Dow rose 6 points although we were much higher for most of the session.  The advance/declines were about even.  Volume was extremely low.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Thinly traded and not much to make of things here.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was very light.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU gained 1 3/4 though.  Perhaps the gold shares are already seeing some buyers at depressed levels.  But the volume was extremely light.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains.  GDX was up almost 1/2.  I'm still considering the calls here for the beginning of the new year.  USO fell 1/2 and is still moving sideways for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  You can't make much of the market action at this time of the year.  The major players are home for the holidays.  I have some trading ideas but acting on them won't occur until next week.  It's time to be patient and relax for a change.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

New highs every day as we closed above 18000 for the first time today.  The Dow gained 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 higher.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow so perhaps a pause is due.  Short term overbought as well for the major stock indices.  However I'm still a believer in higher prices and declines are to be bought.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  My GE March calls are still in the black.  Gold was pretty much flat on the futures but dropped $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was up today and closed above 90.  The XAU was off 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I'm still considering a beginning of the year call trade in the gold shares but I flip flop on this idea with each passing day.  USO was up today as oil had a positive session.  Mentally I'm feeling fine.  Light volume will be the environment for the rest of the week for stocks.  The markets are in holiday mode.  All the major players won't return until the new year.  The trend for the stock indexes remains up and I don't see any changes in the near term.  I'd still like to get some OEX January calls if we do get some selling.  So it is a wait and see type of atmosphere for the rest of 2014.  I expect it to be slow overnight but we'll still keep an eye on things.

More of the same as the Dow gained 154 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  At this rate, there won't be any chance to buy some OEX January calls.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns will play out and the rally will simply extend itself.  New all time highs are in the near future.  There are no reasons for selling.  Just getting to short term overbought on the major stock indices.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was lighter than lately.  My GE March calls are slightly in the black.  I'm still guessing this trade will work out but the entry could have been a lot better.  Gold took a hit today as the futures fell around $15 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU dropped 4 points.  ABX off 1/2, while GG and NEM shed 7/8.  Volume was good to the downside.  You would think that these issues would be sold out by now but the dumping continues.  Not so sure about trying the GDX January calls.  It's probably best to hold off until the technical indicators are completely oversold.  Not there yet.  USO was off a point.  I'm still considering the February calls here but USO has been oversold and staying there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's a holiday week with some shortened sessions coming up.  I think the prudent path will be to let this week go by.  My trading has been pitiful for most of the year anyway.  Looking for a fresh start to the new year is the way to go for me at this juncture.  My trading account lost almost 30% this year.  If not for being short during the drop in October, it would have been worse.  But you've got to keep moving on in this game.  Hopefully the stop loss orders will put a dent in the losing trades but the execution so far hasn't been up to snuff.  It's always a battle with the markets and that includes the players behind the scenes as well.  Plus now the fight includes computers.  However the rewards for those good enough to play the game far outweigh the obstacles.  It can be done.  The only question is are you good enough to do it?  We've seen a steady decline in the commodities markets.  Over supply and a decent rise in the dollar are probably part of the reasons.  This won't last forever although it's hard to make that case right now.  There will be opportunities.  The US stock markets continue to climb.  I expect that trend to continue.  Taking advantage of it will be the key.  We'll get most of this weeks economic data out tomorrow and that should get things moving.  After that I expect things to get pretty slow until next week.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

More of the same to wrap up the week as the Dow gained 26 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is turning back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Any weakness can and should be bought.  We are heading to new all time highs.  I will be looking to get some OEX January calls before the start of the new year.  If we are lucky there will be some pullback.  If not, then some type of consolidation of the recent gains will be the opportunity.  This was a pretty crazy week.  However the major players will be off for the holidays now.  Next week should be a snoozer compared to what we have just seen.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume remains heavy.  My GE March calls are now slightly in the black.  This trade once again looks like it will work but we all know what can happen in this game.  Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar continues to march higher.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  Volume remains good.  I have no plans to trade the gold shares now.  I am going to try and wait for the technical indicators to get oversold.  If that happens before the new year, I'll try the January GDX calls.  USO had a good move higher today by 1 1/4.  Perhaps I have missed this one.  I'm still looking at the February calls though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Physically doing much better as well after the battle with the cold/flu.  The stock indices have turned back up and we are going higher.  I'll try and be patient next week since it would probably be wise to let next week go by.  But you never know.  The summation index has turned around and I'll take my cues from there.  Gold isn't doing much but perhaps if we get a bid for oil, it will help gold.  That's a guess as usual.  I still think there could be some buying of the gold shares early next year by money managers seeking the bottom fishers.  I could be wrong.  But like I said, I'll have to wait until the technicals are oversold before trying the calls there.  So I have a couple of trading ideas to wrap up the year but they will carry over into 2015.  This trading year was pretty pathetic for me on the returns.  My winning percentage was pretty low.  I'll try and improve the results next year.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I don't know what to say after todays price action.  The Dow soared 421 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  That is about 700 or so Dow points in just two days.  You cannot plan for such events.  Volatility has returned but this is ridiculous.  The past two days of gains would normally have taken at least two weeks and that would be in good bull market.  It does not appear that we will get a chance to purchase some OEX January calls but who knows?  The trend has turned back up and new all time highs are on the way for the major stock indices.  The game plan for me now will be to wait and see if we pull back before the new year begins.  GE was up almost 3/4 on heavy volume.  The GE March calls that I own are getting back to break even.  I still like this trade and in due time I think that it will work out fine.  Gold was up just a touch on the futures after being higher earlier.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU was higher by 3 points, once again following stocks.  ABX was up 1/3, while GG and NEM gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  GDX gained 3/4 and it looks like the January call trade here is not going to happen for me.  We've already moved up too much.  Unless we see some near term weakness in the gold shares, I'll have to find something else.  USO moved back down today and appears poised to head lower.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a move today in the major stock indices and the reverse head and shoulders patterns have come back into play.  Just take a look at the daily candlestick charts of COMPQ, INDU, NYA, OEX, QQQ, RUT, SPX or TRAN.  These charts imply much higher prices coming on the break out from these patterns.  I believe that it will happen at the beginning of the new year.  Any decline can be bought.  The summation index is still heading lower but should turn back up next week.  The gold shares have shown a little life here but gold itself isn't doing much.  I'm not sure if I am going to continue to pursue a trade here.  Perhaps the USO February calls will be my next attempt.  Or not.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow todays US stock market move tonight.  I'm also thinking that perhaps the major players in the game are getting all of their trading done before taking off next week for the holidays.  We'll keep an eye on things and close out the week tomorrow.

We witnessed a huge bounce today as the Dow soared 288 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  We were overbought and overdue for some upside but this was quite a bump.  The market also liked what the Fed had to say and that helped extend the rally.  The decline is over in my humble opinion.  I did place an order last night for some OEX January calls but it was not filled.  I am leaving in an open order for this trade because now is the time.  Some of my technical indicators are at the levels they were when we rallied in October.  If we are lucky perhaps the market will drift back and the calls will be filled.  If not we will have to adjust because I'm still a believer that the beginning of next year will be positive.  GE was up over 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  It appears that we have put in a bottom here as well, looking at the daily candlestick chart.  My GE March calls are still in the red.  Gold was flat on the session but dropped a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar had a very strong session.  It was a surprise that gold did not fall further.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, following the overall market.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains under a dollar on good volume.  I was stopped out from my ABX January call trade yesterday for a 45% loss.  I don't think that I will try ABX again here but may attempt the index GDX on the long side.  But I'm not sure that gold will rally here.  Gold itself remains more overbought than oversold at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Oil has held up the past couple of days and that has provided some relief for the stock markets.  The extreme oversold short term condition of the stock indices was due to be relieved as well.  The question will be if this is a real bounce or not but I believe that it is.  Declines can once again be purchased.  I don't know if the market will give us a chance though.  I'm looking at the OEX January calls.  USO has stabilized for the past two days on very heavy volume.  Something is trying to keep this issue from falling any further.  We'll see if it works.  Oil is pretty blown out to the downside.  The gold shares outperformed gold today and that is bullish.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative.  However I cannot rule out a short term rally as the year turns for the gold shares.  I'm thinking that there could be some bottom fishing by money managers to start 2015.  I could be wrong.  We'll watch to see if the foreign markets follow the US lead overnight.  Volatility has returned.

Once again the market failed to hold on to a decent intra-day gain.  The Dow was up well over 200 points during the session but finished the day with a loss of 112 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to head lower.  We finished near the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  We are seeing a worldwide liquidation of assets.  I do not know the reason why.  My guess is heavy margin calls around the world due to leveraged assets related to oil and other commodities.  But that's just a guess.  My theory of how things would play out here was wrong.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns in the major stock indices are not taking place.  GE was off a dime and the volume was heavy again.  I still have the GE March calls but they are losing value and might be stopped out soon.  That will be the case if the overall market decline continues.  Gold was off over $10 on the futures but this was baked in yesterday in the aftermarket.  The US dollar got crushed today.  Gold not being able to rally on a very weak day for the US dollar is not at all bullish.  Once again I don't know why.  The XAU fell almost a point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on heavy volume.  My ABX January calls got to the stop price but I do not know if it was filled.  The market makers danced around my stop limit order.  I'll check back again later tonight but this is the second time this year where the mechanics of a trade haven't worked properly.  Everybody loves electronic trading though.  Until it doesn't work right.  Mentally I'm feeling OK and getting some strength back as well.  Not all the way back to normal yet.  We get the Fed announcement tomorrow.  I have no idea what the reaction to that might be.  It's probably best to be careful here and not make any huge decisions.  The market forces are pretty powerful at times and this seems to be one of those times.  I still believe that next year will be a good one for the stock market.  But the question now seems to be from what level will the year begin?  USO had an up session and the volume was massive.  Trying to hold things up here perhaps?  I guess I'm going to stay on the sidelines here, as I have never traded this issue before and the markets are in crazy mode.  Gold should have had a rally today on the weaker dollar and didn't.  I'm not sure what's next here either.  The gold shares are short term oversold.  I'll see if I was sold out of the ABX January call position and decide whether I'd like to try that again.  We'll see if the foreign markets can hold up overnight and take it from there.

The Dow fell another 100 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Let me be the first to admit that I do not have a clue as to what is going on here.  I've been under the weather for a week but that is no excuse.  We are getting a worldwide liquidation of commodities for whatever reason.  Stocks are being sold to meet margin calls is my guess.  The major stock indices are oversold and staying that way.  If we don't hold up here my reverse head and shoulders hypothesis will be null and void.  GE dropped 1/3 and the volume was extremely heavy.  I might get stopped out of the GE March calls that I own as they are now in the red.  Again, not sure what is happening but everything is going down.  Gold fell $15 on the futures and that much again in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU lost 4 1/2.  The gold shares had been weak and they are getting weaker.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell a point or more on good volume.  My ABX January calls are now losers and risk being stopped out as well.  This was a trade that once showed a very good profit.  Whatever is happening it looks like even more selling is on the way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still not 100%.  I guess it wasn't the best time to catch a cold/flu.  With what is going on at the moment, anything goes.  Today was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and closed lower.  I did not expect the decline to go this far or last this long and I was wrong.  However if things turn around here quickly, then there is still a chance that my idea about the overall market was correct.  USO is still blown out to the downside and I do have the February calls on my radar.  Trying to figure out the bottom is a guessing game.  I still may try this trade but probably the best course of action would be to step aside.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action and see what the foreign markets do.  Tomorrow should be interesting as well.

It was another downer for the Dow today as it got clobbered and fell 315 points on once again heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed on the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  The S&P 500 is just about at 2000, where I believe support will kick in.  But perhaps I'm just off the mark here.  Maybe there is some disaster in the markets waiting to happen.  Technically, I just don't see it.  The small stocks are holding up relatively better.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns that I anticipate are still in place.  Granted, if we see another week as negative as this one next week, I'll have to change my tune.  But for now this decline to me is a breather on the way to higher prices and a good start to the new year.  We'll see.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  This drop occurred despite GE raising its dividend.  In a normal market with this kind of positive development, a nice price spike would occur.  But selling was the theme of the day.  The March GE calls that I own are now in the red.  If I do get stopped out of this trade I will probably try it again at a different strike price.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Disappointing to not see gold get a bid with the recent market turmoil.  It certainly isn't a positive.  The XAU slid another 1 1/4.  ABX off 1/3, with GG and NEM losing 1/2.  Volume was a little better today.  My ABX January calls are barely in the black.  This is a trade that should have been closed out weeks ago.  Five weeks to go in the January option cycle and two of those week will be holiday mode.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still a bit under the weather physically.  Where do we go from here will be the question thought about over the weekend.  Support for the Dow is close at hand around 17200.  Previous tops and the 50 day moving average are around this level.  Will the support hold is now the question.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator is getting pretty oversold.  But that doesn't mean that it can't get more oversold.  I'm still looking for the stock indexes to stabilize next week though.  I could be wrong.  Gold is short term overbought right now, with the gold shares moving into oversold territory.  Not really a clear picture of what to expect there.  The USO trade that I am thinking about maybe just isn't a good idea.  This issue is in a free fall on heavy volume.  I suppose I have been fortunate enough to not have tried anything yet.  I suppose if it makes it all the way to $20, I'll consider it.  The snap back here will probably be pretty dramatic when it comes.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend and hopefully my overall health will return back to normal.  I'll be the first to admit that my thinking has been rather slow this past week.  That won't cut it in this game or any other.  As always the market doesn't care and goes where it wants.  Plenty of research to be done over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Volatility is back as the Dow gained 63 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The Dow did have a 200 point gain at some time early in the session.  Can't say I know exactly what is taking place here.  But I'm sticking with the thesis that this sets things up for a rally into the new year.  I'm also a believer of the reverse head and shoulders patterns being formed on some of the major stock indices daily charts.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  The GE March calls that I own are back to break even.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  Gold was off $3 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU dropped another point.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM had a fractional gain.  Volume was light.  Sideways is the most that we can hope for the gold shares here.  The short term technical indicators are neither overbought or oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Cannot shake this cold/flu.  Declines can still be purchased in my opinion.  I'm still looking for a good start to the new year for stocks.  Six days to go in the December option cycle.  I have no index option trades in mind for the S&P at the moment.  USO continues to drop.  I'm looking but not buying just yet.  Oversold and staying there for this issue and that is dangerous.  The CRB continues to drop as well.  Gold continues to hang in there for now.  But I don't see any huge rallies coming.  We'll watch the overnight action and finish out the week tomorrow.

Well, we got a decline today as the Dow fell 268 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  Markets around the world a beginning to drop.  The summation index is heading lower.  I still don't think this is the beginning of any sustained decline.  It would help if we can hold things up right around here.  Let me be the first to say that the look on the daily candlestick charts of some of the major averages to me is a reverse head and shoulder pattern.  That implies higher prices going out in time.  I do not think that we are going to retest the lows from October or anything even close to that.  But who knows?  The markets go where they want.  GE fell another 1/3 and the volume was heavy here as well.  The GE March calls that I purchased yesterday are slightly under water.  I still like this trade and think that in time it will prove to be a good move.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't s good sign for the gold bulls.  The XAU fell 2 1/3 after trying to show some life early.  ABX shed 1/8, while GG and NEM fell over 1/2.  Volume was lighter here.  The gold shares basically ended up following the overall market.  Mentally and physically I'm tired, still not close to feeling 100%.  It affects the trading to be sure.  I should be OK by next week.  The markets don't care.  USO continues to plunge and the volume today was extremely heavy.  Maybe it's about time to step up to the plate here but I will have to wait until next week at least.  Oversold and staying there on a daily and weekly basis for this issue.  The snap back should be pretty violent if you can pick the bottom.  The major stock indexes are moving to short term oversold territory.  Not so much so on a weekly basis.  The summation index heading lower should be where we take our cues from.  Perhaps the S&P 500 can see some support at the 50 day moving average at around 2000.  That is my best guess at the moment.  Both gold and silver are now overbought.  Sideways is the most we can expect near term.  There was no flight to safety here despite a lower dollar and a decent decline in the stock market.  The gold shares continue to disappoint.  We'll have to watch the overseas markets tonight and see if they continue lower.  Once again, I don't think that this is anything to worry about.  Or perhaps since that's what I think you should.  But you could make those assumptions on any day about any thing.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another crazy session as the Dow was off over 200 points early but came back to finish the day lower by 51.  Volume was heavy again and the advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks fared much better than the Dow and that is a positive.  Declines continue to be bought.  That is the theme for now and I expect it to continue.  The summation index is moving lower but I don't think it will turn into some type of market rout.  We are setting up for the rally that will appear in the new year.  That is my guess at the moment.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  My open order for the GE March calls was filled early when GE tanked with the overall market.  I have the stop loss order in place.  This trade has plenty of time to work and I am very positive that this will turn into a decent profit.  I could be wrong.  Gold soared on fear when the stock indices dropped on the open.  The precious metal futures rose $35 as the US dollar was lower again.  Gold has now risen above its 50 day moving average.  Ditto for silver, which had a good session as well.  The gold shares didn't move as much as I would have liked though.  The XAU gained 3 1/8.  ABX up 1/2, while GG and NEM added around 7/8.  Volume was decent.  My ABX January calls are back in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but I'm still feeling ill from the cold/flu.  Not being 100% makes for tough trading but thankfully there isn't a lot of thought to be done with what I have going on right now.  Todays market comeback only solidifies the idea that dips are to be purchased.  There will be plenty of time to develop new trades when I'm feeling better.  I'm still thinking about the USO February calls.  Today was a great day for gold and silver but the precious metal shares lagged.  That is not a positive.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  We'll watch the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

An interesting start to the week as the Dow fell 105 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  We were off 150 at on point during the session.  Todays action should turn the summation index down.  I would not worry about any kind of big decline here.  My opinion is that we are simply setting things up for the next rally to begin at the start of the new year.  GE dropped 1/3 on good volume.  My open order for the March calls here is close to being filled.  Another down day tomorrow and it will get hit most likely.  Gold turned around to the upside during the trading day and were $5 on the futures, more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU was flat on the day after being lower early.  The same price action occurred with ABX, GG and NEM.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls got all the way back to what I paid for them before finishing slightly in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically I have a cold/flu.  Trading is tough enough to begin with and being sick isn't going to help.  Trading decisions now will be kept to a minimum.  I'm still considering the USO February calls but that issue continues to simply drop.  The overall stock indices are taking a breather here.  Weakness will be bought in my opinion.  If you have any call trades for the beginning of next year, now is the time to be looking to buy.  I could be wrong and often am.  However I think next year will be positive for stocks, with a decent lift off in January.  Gold has been holding up near the $1200 range despite a lot of not so good news for it lately.  Perhaps it can get some kind of upside traction soon.  But the technicals are more overbought here short term than oversold.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More new highs as the Dow gained 58 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The employment report was robust and the fear of higher interest rates is no longer a market concern.  We are going higher and this rally will probably last longer than most expect.  Some indexes, such as the NYA and RUT have yet to break into new highs.  When they do, things will really get going to the upside.  Perhaps at the start of the new year.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  I'm still leaving the open order in for the March calls here.  It will take some more weakness to get filled.  Gold fell on the employment numbers and that is not what I needed for the ABX call trade.  The precious metal futures were off $17.  The US dollar continued to rally with another strong session.  The fundamentals for gold are negative.  I suppose I should have cashed in the profit I had a couple of weeks ago as it appears that there will be no sustained rallies for gold.  The XAU lost 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The ABX January call trade is still slightly in the black.  Oversold now on a short term basis for ABX.  USO was lower today as well.  The strong US dollar does not help this issue.  I am still considering the February calls here but I certainly don't know where the bottom is for oil.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got about two real weeks of trading left into the December option expiration before things really slow down for the holidays.  I do not expect any real declines and any weakness will be bought.  I may begin to look at the January OEX or SPY calls because I expect a nice pop at the beginning of next year.  I could be wrong.  But like I said, once all of the stock indices are into new high ground we should take off.  There is no overhead resistance.  Markets tend to stay overbought for a long time in good rallies.  Witness the recent action in the US dollar.  Now all things don't last forever but you've got to take advantage of the situations when they occur.  Gold has not been able to build on that huge reversal move last week to the upside.  That is not a positive going forward.  Neither is that fact that the gold share indexes were rebuffed at their 50 day moving averages.  Now time also becomes a factor for this ABX January call trade that I have because there are only six weeks left.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts as usual and trying to come up with a game plan for the rest of this year.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Bouncing around today and negative for the most part as the Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the jobs numbers.  We could go either way here but I'm looking for a bullish outcome.  Declines are still being purchased and I expect that to continue.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  I still have an open order in for the March calls here.  Gold was basically flat on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish.  The XAU dropped about 1 2/3.  ABX and NEM fell 1/3, while GG shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  Not sure what to make of todays price action but as long as the gold shares continue to move sideways I'll remain with a bullish position.  My ABX January calls remain in the black but have lost some profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not sure what we'll see from the employment report tomorrow but I don't expect some big decline.  Money continues to flow into US stocks and that trend has been pretty consistent.  Given the positive seasonal factor in place now, higher prices are the expected outcome.  The trend is up and you should night fight it.  Gold is stuck at the 50 day moving average as are the gold shares.  Perhaps tomorrows data will get things moving.  Or not.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for gold and mid-range for the gold shares.  USO remains oversold but that doesn't mean that it can't go lower.  Just because something looks cheap doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper.  I'm keeping an eye on it and still may make a trade here.  We'll watch the overnight developments and await the employment report tomorrow morning. 

Another day, another new all time high.  The Dow closed up 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  I thought that perhaps we would simply move sideways here but up we go.  The summation index is trending sideways though.  The Fed minutes were a non event.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up 1/3 on OK volume.  My open order was not hit but I am leaving it out there.  The GE March calls are the trade here for me.  Gold was up almost ten bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU rose almost 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on lighter volume.  My ABX January calls are still in the black.  Stalling at the 50 days moving average for both gold and the gold share indices.  A move above would be positive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment numbers.  The short term technicals are mixed here so we could go either way.  I'd only be guessing at which way we will go.  It's the sidelines for now with regards to the OEX options.  Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle.  I think that gold and silver are still trying to digest the violent intra-day move on Monday.  Perhaps the jobs data will get things going here again.  I'm still looking at USO and considering a long trade there.  We'll watch what transpires in the overnight action and go from there.

Back to the upside as volatility has returned.  The Dow gained 102 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Declines are being purchased.  Perhaps the major stock indices will simply move sideways here before heading one way or the other.  The odds favor eventually higher prices in my opinion.  The short term technical indicators are trying to roll back to the upside.  No OEX trades right now.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  My open order remains for the March calls here.  Gold fell back almost $20 today on the futures as the US dollar had a sharp rebound.  The XAU lost 2 1/2.  ABX and NEM fell 1/2, while GG shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  My ABX January calls are still showing a profit but not as much.  Volatility has returned in the gold market as well.  USO was lower today and I am still debating on whether to attempt a trade here or not.  If the options for February get cheap enough, I'll probably give it a try.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps we are in a pause for the major stock indices here but we will have to see how it plays out.  Working off the extended overbought condition is how I'd term the recent price action.  But with the Fed minutes tomorrow and the employment report on Friday, we do have catalysts for price action.  Once again , I do not expect any major decline.  Gold has been acting strange lately but with the long bullish candlestick on the daily chart, I've got to think that there will be a positive short term outcome here.  I could be wrong.  The technicals on the gold share indexes are mid-range.  USO is another idea but I am not used to trading it.  Technically it is overblown to the downside.  I'll give it some more time most likely before deciding on what to do.  We'll follow the action overseas tonight and see what happens tomorrow.

We begin the month of December on a down note as the Dow fell 51 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index down.  We have been short term overbought on the stock indices for quite some time so a pause isn't completely out of the question.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock indices.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, especially the small stocks.  I don't expect any huge decline here though.  But what do I know?  Not a whole lot sometimes.  GE was off almost 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Not sure what is going on here either.  However I did place an order for the GE March calls since I have been waiting for a pullback to try this trade.  I'm leaving the order open.  Gold had a wild session as the Swiss voted down the peg to gold for the franc.  Gold initially sold off hard overnight but then completely turned around and rallied just a hard back to the upside.  The futures ended the day higher by over $40 and back above the $1200 level.  The US dollar was weaker on the session.  The XAU was up 4 3/4.  ABX up 1/2, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM added 1 1/4.  Volume was heavy back to the upside.  Unfortunately for me ABX was the laggard here but my ABX January calls are still in the black.  I really don't know what to make of todays price action but it appears to be bullish.  However I would not be surprised to see some sideways action as the market figures out where it wants to go.  The USO trade that I wrote about last week is still in the picture but USO had a strong day today to halt the free fall in oil.  I still like the USO February calls if we drop back again.  On a weekly basis, USO is so many standard deviations away from its 50 week moving average that it has to begin to snap back towards it between now and February.  After todays price action I feel this will happen sooner rather than later.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My guess is that any decline that we see here will set us up for a nice rally at the beginning of next year.  January through March calls should work out in my opinion.  I'll be looking at the OEX and SPY to trade long at some point this month.  The ideal scenario will be for the summation index to trend lower with the short term technical indicators reaching oversold status.  That will be the opportune time to buy the calls.  Wishful thinking perhaps on my part.  The markets go where they want.  Gold had a crazy session with incredible volatility.  I don't know what it means for the future but at least for the bullish cause we are back above $1200.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  The employment report on Friday should be the main driver.  We also have the Feds beige book out on Wednesday.  So it should be an interesting week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and get ready for Tuesday. 

The Dow finished the day practically unchanged on holiday light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The small stocks were slightly higher but the S&P 500 showed a loss.  The price of oil took center stage as it continued its collapse in a big way after the recent OPEC meeting.  I am thinking of getting some USO calls for February.  USO is a widely traded fund used as a proxy for the price of oil.  Oil is blown out to the downside and some type of recovery will occur.  As always the timing is the key question.  The overall stock market remains short term overbought.  GE was off over 1/3 today on average volume.  Could this be a sign of things to come?  No new news here and the short term up trend line has now been broken.  Perhaps I'll get a chance for the March calls here.  Gold followed oil lower today as the futures fell $15 to add to the $10 they dropped yesterday.  The US dollar had another good session.  The gold shares got clobbered as the XAU fell 6 points.  ABX and NEM lost over a buck, while GG dumped 1 1/4.  Volume was very good for a holiday shortened session.  The gold shares are rolling over here.  The time to sell my ABX January calls was earlier this week.  They are still showing a profit but it has been more than cut in half.  Commodity prices are crumbling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was supposed to be a quiet holiday session but the oil drop changed things.  You really can never tell what will happen in this game.  I think that the oil price is overblown to the downside here but it isn't something that I usually trade.  That said, opportunity appears in times of crisis.  Or so they say.  I'll consider the USO trade over the weekend.  The trend in stocks remains up.  The summation index continues higher.  I don't have any OEX trades in mind at the moment.  Gold and the gold shares have rolled over.  Perhaps the vote in Switzerland would turn things around but that is a long shot and probably won't happen.  I will seriously have to consider exiting the ABX January call trade on Monday.  I suppose a small profit is better than a loss.  But it's another thing to look at over the weekend.  It's Friday and time to take a break.

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow including the small stocks.  This bodes well for the bullish cause going forward.  The summation index continues higher.  The trend remains up and should be for quite some time.  There is no overhead resistance.  GE was flat again and the volume was light.  Waiting for a spot to buy the March calls here.  Gold didn't do much on the futures but the US dollar was lower today.  Markets are traded thin this week.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX was flat today, while GG and NEM had small fractional losses.  Volume was holiday light.  There is some noise about an upcoming vote in Switzerland to peg some of franc to gold but the odds of passage are slim.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A shortened stock session on tap for Friday but I would not expect any major market movement.  End of the month that day as well.  The major players will be off.  Things will return to normal on Monday and we'll start the month of December.  There is nothing in the way to cause any of the bulls concern at the moment.  Gold and the gold share indexes remain below their 50 day moving averages.  I think sideways price action is the most we can hope for right now.  Short term overbought on some of the technical indicators for the gold shares but it has yet to produce a decline.  We'll see what next week brings.  Happy Thanksgiving to all that celebrate the holiday and we'll be back here on Friday.

More of the same as the Dow fell 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  It's mixed bag here really with no major moves one way or the other.  The remainder of this week will be muted as traders will be leaving early tomorrow and Friday is a shortened session.  So we will wait and be patient.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Still waiting on a possible chance to get some of the March calls here/  Gold was barely higher on the futures as the US dollar lost ground today.  The XAU gained 2 2/3 though as it trades near the 50 day moving average.  ABX up 1/3, GG rose 7/8 and NEM added 1/2.  Volume was pretty good to the upside here which is surprising considering the holiday mode.  Perhaps the gold market knows something we don't.  Or not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend remains up and the song remains the same for the stock indices.  I'm expecting tomorrow to be a light volume affair.  There will be some economic data reported but I don't think we'll really be back in the swing of things until next week.  Gold and gold share indices are at their 50 day moving averages.  A move through there would be constructive for the bullish cause here near term.  My ABX January calls are still very much in the black.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

Nothing has changed as the Dow gained 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  We should be drifting up for the remainder of the holiday week.  Overbought, staying that way and no change in sight.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light for ABX and GG.  Average volume for NEM.  The gains on my ABX January calls are being pared.  We are rolling over on the technicals for the gold shares here and it looks like I have overstayed my welcome on ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to report with todays price action.  All signs point to more of the same.  The small stocks are relatively stronger and that's bullish.  New closing all time highs for many of the major stock indices.  There is no overhead resistance.  Gold is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  If we can get through there it would be a positive but I would not count on it just yet.  The gold shares broke the near term down trend line.  The next technical expectation would be a return to that line.  Perhaps that is what is occurring now.  Here too, the 50 day moving average is providing resistance.  Plenty of time for the ABX call trade that I'm in but maybe selling out last week was the proper move.  Time will tell on that.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take it from there. 

A jolt higher in the morning and then a down to sideways drift.  The Dow ended the day with a gain of  91 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  We'll get a holiday week next week and that is generally positive.  Declines will continue to be bought.  The trend remains up and should be for quite some time in my opinion.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average.  I still like calls here but will need to see some decline for purchase.  Otherwise it's a wait and see game for GE.  Gold was up $6 on the futures despite a good day for the US dollar.  The XAU was up 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains one way or the other on lighter volume.  The recent rise in the gold shares could be over here and perhaps I have overextended my stay with the ABX January calls.  Overbought on some of the short term technical indicators for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can I say about the stock indices?  There are no sellers, only buyers.  We are in the seasonal positive zone for stocks and will be for quite some time.  New all time highs are a daily occurrence.  Calls are the way to go for option trading.  Daily declines are immediately purchased.  You cannot fight the positive price action.  Gold has had a bounce but it certainly hasn't been robust.  I think the most we can hope for here is a sideways range before continuing higher.  The only certainty is that I don't know.  The gold shares have had a decent couple of weeks but it does look like that may be out of steam.  There should be some more end of the year tax loss selling in this sector as well.  My ABX January calls are still showing a good profit.  I will have to seriously consider whether or not to sell them over the weekend.  I'll also be checking the charts to try and find some new ideas.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another early sell off and another comeback as the Dow gained 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is beginning to trend sideways.  Things should pretty much slow down for the next week of trading days as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.  I'd expect an overall positive bias to exist for the major stock averages.  We're still short term overbought and that condition persists.  No change to the uptrend for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  No trades here for now.  The gold futures were off three bucks but made up what they lost in the aftermarket last night.  Some volatility now for gold.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU was up 1 7/8.  ABX rose 1/3, while GG and NEM were up 1/2.  Volume was light.  I think that sideways is the most that we can expect near term for the gold shares.  Overbought on the short term here.  My ABX January calls are still in the black.  I really need to think about selling them here but there is the potential for more upside after a digestion period.  Or not.  The game is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Patience is required now as we wait for the next set up.  I don't think that the OEX puts are the right trade even though we are overbought.  Declines are easily still being bought at the moment.  So we wait.  GE has had a nice upside run and getting the March calls is still in the plans.  However some type of pullback must occur for this trade to be worth it.  Gold and the gold shares have started to act better but there still may be some end of the year selling to contend with here.  I am tempted to simply book the profit here that I already have.  It's something to think about.  Expiration Friday tomorrow in front of a holiday week coming up.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign markets and close out the week tomorrow. 

A sell off early but the market almost made it all the way back.  The Dow fell 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Still overbought and still staying that way.  The market is trying to make up its mind I suppose.  Declines are being purchased and that is expected.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the OEX until a decent signal appears.  I don't know when that will occur.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  No trades here until we see a pullback.  Gold was off a few bucks in the regular session but lost another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar finished the day with a slight gain.  The XAU got crushed and lost almost 4 points.  It appears the bullishness for gold has been lost in a day.  ABX and NEM fell over 3/4, while GG dropped 1 1/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  Unless we see a turnaround in the gold shares tomorrow, the advance here is probably over.  My ABX January calls are still showing a profit but have lost some value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  More of the same for the stock indexes.  Going nowhere fast really.  Sometimes patience is required and we have arrived at one of those times.  Holiday week coming up as well.  Gold had a good drop today and with volume.  That isn't good sign for the bulls.  I am going to have to consider selling the ABX January calls sooner rather than later.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.

Another run to new highs as the Dow gained 40 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Still pretty overbought here.  The final hour saw the market lose ground and that usually isn't positive going forward.  However we can see the positive upward bias of option expiration week in force today.  Plus the overall market and the small stocks were stronger than the Dow.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE was a precursor for the market once again.  It doesn't look like I'll get a chance for the March calls here.  Gold had a positive session with the futures gaining $13.  The US dollar fell today for a change.  I can make a case that the dollar has had a five wave up move since the beginning of July.  If that is so then more dollar weakness will follow.  We'll see.  The XAU was up 3 1/8.  ABX and GG gained 3/4, while NEM rose 2/3.  Volume was good and we broke above the down trend lines that have been in effect since the beginning of September on the gold share indices.  My ABX January calls are showing good gains for now.  The next question is when to sell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like higher prices are coming for the major stock indices.  Although we remain very overbought all signs appear to be pointing higher for now.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  The gold shares are breaking out to the upside.  Price and volume are finally positive here now.  I don't know how long it will last.  But we should at least make it to the 50 day moving averages.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were lower and that is not a positive.  The TRAN was lower today as well.  We are overdue for some type of decline but it is option expiration week.  The short term indicators have rolled over for the small caps but not for the major stock indices.  Your guess as to what happens next is as good as mine.  No OEX trades for now.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  I'm still considering the March calls here but there hasn't been a pullback for the purchase.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures, which wasn't too bad considering the good gains in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1 1/8 as the gold shares out performed.  That's a good sign for the bulls.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on good volume.  Somebody is buying the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are still showing a decent profit.  Not completely short term overbought yet for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With the weakness in the small stocks it would not be a surprise to see some selling here.  But with the positive expiration week bias, I doubt any meaningful decline is around the corner.  With a holiday week looming it could just be more of the same stagnation.  I simply don't know.  When in doubt, stay out.  I think that gold has experienced some short covering in the past couple of weeks.  The gold share indexes are on the verge of breaking through the down trend lines on a daily basis that began in the beginning of September.  If we can get through them with volume it would be a short term positive.  But it hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

Still just hanging around for the stock market as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading up.  We really just went sideways this week and perhaps that is enough of a rest before we head higher.  Expiration week and its positive bias is coming up.  With a holiday week to follow.  So I don't expect any major declines or any surprises.  Steady as she goes for now.  GE gained a nickel and the volume was extremely light.  No hurry to do anything here.  Gold had an unusual session as it took off to the upside for no apparent reason.  The dollar was weaker today but not enough to justify the gold futures taking off by over $25 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  Short covering in my opinion.  The XAU gained over 4 points.  ABX up 3/4, GG gained 1 1/8 and NEM added 7/8.  Volume was good to the upside.  The weekly gold share charts still appear to be trying to hammer out a bottom after todays price action.  My ABX January calls are solidly in the black.  But we know anything can happen in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit off, did not feel well last night.  Perhaps some rest is due.  I don't see anything in the near term that could derail the recent rally.  We are overdue for a pause but none seems to be forthcoming.  The technical indicators are overbought and simply remaining that way.  We are in a positive seasonal area for stocks.  I do not expect a lot of tax loss selling this year because there really aren't a lot of losses.  But that's a guess as usual.  What isn't a guess is that all declines will be bought for now.  Gold had a huge move to the upside today and got back above the $1180 level.  I can't say I saw that coming.  The next goal will be $1200.  Not overbought yet on the gold shares.  However there are plenty of losses to take in this sector if they haven't been taken already.  I'm not sure when to book the profit for the January ABX call trade but it may be sooner rather than later.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  With only five days remaining in the November option cycle, I doubt I'll be attempting any trades next week.  But you never know.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another gain for the Dow as the most watched index gained 40 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though.  The Dow as the leader is usually not a bullish sign.  I still feel a breather is in order for the major stock indices.  But who knows?  Perhaps the recent sideways action this week is all we'll get.  The summation index continues to move up.  However the action in the RUT today was bearish and we like to see the small stocks in the lead.  So we'll see.  GE was off about 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here right now but I'm still looking at the March calls.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU fell a point and that isn't bullish action for the gold shares.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  We are not seeing the gold shares add to last weeks gains and that is a discouraging sign.  Perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for here in the near term.  Mentally I'm getting back into the market routine.  Six days left in the November option cycle.  After that we will have a holiday week.  So I think whatever the near term direction will be, will play out in the next six days.  The stock indexes are still overbought and that condition really needs to be relieved before any further advance can take place.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Whether or not we've built a short term top here will play out in the next few days.  Gold remains a disappointment but maybe we are hammering out a bottom here.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold shares have stopped going down but we certainly aren't witnessing any kind of rally yet.  My ABX January calls are still showing a slight profit.  We'll see what happens in the overseas trading tonight and close out the week tomorrow.

Not much happening today as the Dow fell 2 points on lighter than lately volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Nothing changed in the two days I was away.  We continue to be overbought and the market continues to grind its way higher.  The small stocks had the relative strength today and that is bullish.  I do not see any big declines coming.  It will probably just be more of the same.  We are overdue for some type of breather coming up.  But when that occurs is anybodies guess.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  GE is just hanging around this week.  Gold was off a few bucks today as the US dollar was higher.  Gold has given back some of last weeks gains so far this week.  The XAU was off 1/8.  The gold shares sold off Monday and have since come back.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM fell 1/4.  Volume has lightened up for the gold shares.  My ABX January gold share calls are still showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling tired from the travel.  The stock indices continue to travel upwards but some type of pause would not be a surprise.  It is a light week for economic data.  Declines will still be bought in my opinion.  Gold has not been able to add to the gains of last week.  That is not an encouraging sign for the bulls.  But we still have a couple of days left in the week.  The gold shares are hanging in there so far for the week.  I need to get some rest as things get back to normal here after a couple of days away from it all.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

We bounced around for most of todays session and finished with a gain of 19 points on the Dow on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The employment report came in just a bit lighter than expected but it wasn't a drastic development.  The stock indices sold off and came back twice.  Still overbought and staying there for the short term technical picture.  I don't see any big declines coming and a grind higher would not be a surprise.  The trend is up.  GE gained a nickel on lighter volume.  I'd like the March calls if GE falls back, although that does not appear to be happening anytime soon.  Gold was a surprise today as it took off to the upside.  The futures gained over $25 as the US dollar had a good decline on the day.  Probably short covering for gold because the overall fundamental picture there hasn't changed.  The gold shares added to yesterdays gains with the XAU up 4 3/4.  ABX gained 3/4, GG rose 1 1/2 and NEM added a buck.  Volume was good here.  Some bargain hunting along with short covering is my guess for todays price action.  My ABX January calls are in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not feel well last night.  The major stock indexes are still in a straight line up pattern form the lows of mid-October.  This cannot last.  We are hitting new all time highs on some of the indices almost every day.  That fact that this is not receiving a lot of press bodes well for higher prices as we go along.  But we do need to take a rest at some point.  Perhaps that will be the opportunity to purchase some calls.  I expect the beginning of next week to be slow.  Tuesday is another bank holiday in the US.  Gold had it's best day in months today for whatever reason.  The daily candlestick chart here now has a bullish pattern.  Perhaps gold can get back to $1200 off of this snap back attempt.  It's also possible that the gold shares are trying to put a stop to their decline here as well.  The weekly candlestick charts here had their first positive close in nine weeks.  Volume was heavy going higher as well and that's bullish.  But we will need to see some follow through upside next week to have a more constructive picture of the situation.  The blog will be off on Monday and Tuesday as I am taking a mini-vacation in the mountains and will not have internet access.  I'll have a recap of those days here on Wednesday when I return.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The stock markets continue to climb higher.  The Dow gained 70 points on what passes now for average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The employment report is due tomorrow and I get the feeling that regardless of the data the market will rally.  The Dow and the TRAN continue to make new daily all time highs.  That fact is getting no press at this time.  The trend is up until proven otherwise.  GE had a good session as it gained 1/2 on good volume.  Will I get a chance to buy the March calls here?  Not at least until this issue gets oversold and that could be a while.  The move higher bodes well for the overall market.  Gold appears to be trying to stabilize here as it lost a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar took off to the upside again and crossed the 88 level.  The fact that gold didn't drop even more is interesting and confusing at the same time.  The gold shares somehow found a bid and the XAU was up 2 2/3.  ABX and NEM rose 1/3, while GG was higher by 3/4.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  Probably just some short covering for the gold shares today.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish.  My ABX January calls are showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything is pointing to rising stock index prices and we'll move tomorrow off of the employment report.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain overbought but in strong moves higher that is the case.  Enjoy the ride.  Gold and silver remain unloved.  So why would I try the gold share calls here?  If my prognosis that this is the 5th and final leg down for the gold shares, a snap back rally should ensue.  That and the extreme oversold nature of these stocks provide the technical case for the trade.  Combined with the extreme bearishness and general feeling that gold has nowhere to go but down helps build the contrarian argument.  However as always the markets go where they want.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Mixed again for the major stock indices as the Dow gained 100 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks lagged today and the NASDAQ was slightly negative.  Overbought and staying there for the stock indexes.  The summation index is still moving higher.  The election is out of the way and the next piece of trading news will be the employment report.  I don't see anything in the way of higher prices right now.  Declines will be bought in my opinion.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was OK.  GE is not participating in the rally as much as you'd like to see here.  No trades here for now.  Gold got sold off again as the futures fell over $20.  The US dollar was strong again today.  Getting overbought short term for the US dollar.  Gold remains oversold and has been for weeks.  The XAU dropped 2 3/4.  ABX and GG lost around 1/2, while NEM fell over 3/4.  Volume remains very heavy in what I think is the final liquidation for the gold shares.  I canceled the overnight order that I had for the January ABX calls.  In the morning I placed another order at a closer to the money call for the January ABX options.  It was filled late in the day.  It is already showing a small loss.  I may be early with this idea.  At this point there is really no telling how low the gold shares can go.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Tomorrow should be a holding pattern for the stock market.  Still in a straight line up for the Dow.  This will not last forever.  Overbought, staying there and there is no end in sight for the rally.  However the lack of small stock participation here is probably a warning sign.  I think that gold and the gold shares are in the final phase of their decline.  If correct, then the January ABX call trade that I placed today might have a chance.  If not, the stop loss will be hit.  It appears that I'm early here with the drop in the final hour for the gold shares.  But we'll see.  I'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.

Another day of mixed results as the Dow rose 17 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  This is probably a digestion period due to the recent gains.  We'll get the election results overnight and they will most likely indicate a stalemate for Washington.  That should be a positive for the stock market.  We're still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold didn't do much on the futures today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU fell 2 1/2 and returned to under perform the metal.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell around 1/2 on good volume again.  What appeared to be an attempt to hammer out a bottom for the gold shares isn't holding up.  I still have the open order for the January ABX calls but I may have to adjust it lower.  Or perhaps forget about it altogether.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we have had a straight line rally form the lows in October.  This cannot last forever.  Perhaps it is time for some sideways activity to consolidate the gains.  I do not expect any large scale decline because I think that there will be buyers to step in.  The VIX had a spike and we are now back at more normal levels.  After tomorrows price action it should be a waiting game for Fridays employment numbers.  Gold and silver are in incredible bear markets.  However on the weekly gold share charts I can make a case that we are in the fifth and final leg down.  How far down it goes is the question.  I'll rethink the January calls tonight.  We'll watch the election returns come in tonight and see what tomorrow brings. 

A mixed bag to start the month of November as the Dow lost 24 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The overall market acted better than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  We'll get the mid-term elections out of the way and wait for the employment report.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  I'm still thinking about getting the March call here.  The timing is the ongoing question.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar continued its climb higher.  The XAU was actually up two points and this is the first sign of the gold shares starting to act better.  Of course one day doesn't make a trend but it is something to keep an eye on.  ABX and GG had very minor gains, while NEM was up 1/3.  Volume remains heavy here.  I did place an order for the January ABX calls and I am leaving it open.  The technicals for the gold shares remain oversold.  However it looks like both ABX and GG are trying to hammer out bottoms here on the daily candlestick charts.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure how much longer the straight line up from the lows can go.  But you've got to admit it's been pretty amazing.  I really don't think anybody saw that coming.  But where we go from here is what matters now.  Declines, if we get any, can and will be bought in my opinion.  I do not have any OEX trades in mind right now.  I am starting to look at the SPY as a trading option as well.  Gold has broken support and lower prices are forecast from that.  How low is the question here.  The gold shares look like they are trying to stabilize here.  Whether or not they can remains to be seen.  I'm still willing to try the January calls here if I can get filled at the price that I want.  This looks like it will be my next attempt at a trade.  We'll see what transpires overnight and watch the pre-election markets tomorrow.