Thursday, November 13, 2014
Another gain for the Dow as the most watched index gained 40 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though. The Dow as the leader is usually not a bullish sign. I still feel a breather is in order for the major stock indices. But who knows? Perhaps the recent sideways action this week is all we'll get. The summation index continues to move up. However the action in the RUT today was bearish and we like to see the small stocks in the lead. So we'll see. GE was off about 1/8 on light volume. No trades here right now but I'm still looking at the March calls. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a slight loss. The XAU fell a point and that isn't bullish action for the gold shares. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. We are not seeing the gold shares add to last weeks gains and that is a discouraging sign. Perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for here in the near term. Mentally I'm getting back into the market routine. Six days left in the November option cycle. After that we will have a holiday week. So I think whatever the near term direction will be, will play out in the next six days. The stock indexes are still overbought and that condition really needs to be relieved before any further advance can take place. That's my best guess at the moment. Whether or not we've built a short term top here will play out in the next few days. Gold remains a disappointment but maybe we are hammering out a bottom here. That's a guess as usual. The gold shares have stopped going down but we certainly aren't witnessing any kind of rally yet. My ABX January calls are still showing a slight profit. We'll see what happens in the overseas trading tonight and close out the week tomorrow.
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