Friday, January 02, 2015
An interesting start to the new year as the Dow gained about 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now moving sideways. Not the start that I expected as we opened up pretty good, with around a 75 point gain but gave it all back and then some. Most of the session was spent in negative territory. I'm still confident that we will break out to the upside form here. Getting more short term oversold as we go on in time. My stop loss order wasn't triggered even though we traded at the price again. I do not know what is going on there. The option spread was very wide as well. I ended up canceling the stop loss order and will figure out what to do over the weekend. This isn't the first time this has happened to me with the OEX. I am pretty sure that I will be moving over to trade the SPY. There seems to be more liquidity over there and the spreads are tight. The only thing about the SPY that I'm not used to is the speed of the contract. GE fell around 1/4 and the volume was about average. The short term technical have rolled over here. My GE March calls are in the red and getting close to the stop loss point. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures but the US dollar soared to start the new year. The XAU was up 1 3/4 though which did not fit in with the dollars price movement. It looks like the beginning of the year gold share call trade would have worked. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. GDX rose over 1/2. USO fell 1/2 and the volume was pretty good. My USO February calls are at where I purchased them despite todays loss. Not exactly sure what to make of that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. All the traders should return on Monday and we'll see where we go from there. I'm not sure if the rise in the dollar and lack of gold selling means that there is something brewing somewhere to surprise the markets. It could just be a one day event. I'd like to stay with the OEX call trade for now because some of my technical indicators are getting bullish. But the market can and will do anything. I also don't like the fact that GE isn't doing well here. GE acts as a proxy for the market sometimes and if that is the case, then things are weaker than I think. We'll have to see how things pan out next week. Plenty of economic data due including the employment report on Friday. There will be plenty to ponder over the weekend as I have three positions and things are not going as planned. I'll check the charts and try to come up with a game plan. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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