Friday, January 09, 2015
Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 170 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The employment report took a back seat to the terror problems in France. Headline events are difficult to trade since they are very unpredictable. With today decline the market can go either way from here and doesn't give us a good sense of direction. It appears I should have taken the loss for the OEX January calls yesterday but hindsight always gives the best results. It means nothing now. We are working off the recent oversold technical condition of the stock indices. The indicators are now mid-range. We do have expiration week coming up. We'll see if it has the usual positive bias. GE fell 1/3 on average volume. This chart has a distinctive bearish look to it after todays price action. That could be a precursor for the overall market. GE did not really participate in the two day rally this week. That could be a problem. I think we'll know more after the earnings in a week. My GE March calls are still losers. Gold was up over $7 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was lower today. The XAU gained 2 7/8, while GDX was up almost a point. USO dropped 1/4. The USO February call trade is most certainly going to be a loser at this rate. Do not try and pick bottoms. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The employment numbers came in at about what was expected. The market is being held hostage by fear at the moment due to the troubles overseas. Perhaps that will subside over the weekend. One week to go in the January option cycle. It looks like my trading year is going to start off like last year ended. With extended losses that were not cut short. Even with stop loss orders. Perhaps I am trading too many things at the same time. Regardless, it's where we go from here that matters. I can't say that I have a good idea about the next move in the stock indexes. The daily candlestick charts on some of the indices show a bearish belt hold pattern. That could be reversed if we get a strong up session on Monday. However the lack of follow through after being up over 300 points isn't positive. The gold shares have acted much better to start the new year. The acts of terror help support the price of gold in a flight to safety. The fact that the gold shares have led gold itself here is a positive. However we are overbought at this point and getting calls here is not advised. But who knows? Perhaps gold will break out but I think that it has to get through $1240 to really find some interest. I'll be deciding what to do with my open positions over the weekend. I think most likely the losses should be taken so I can move on to something else. It isn't a confidence booster, that's for sure. Plenty of charts to check and I'll keep an eye on the headlines as well. it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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