Friday, December 05, 2014
More new highs as the Dow gained 58 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending sideways. The employment report was robust and the fear of higher interest rates is no longer a market concern. We are going higher and this rally will probably last longer than most expect. Some indexes, such as the NYA and RUT have yet to break into new highs. When they do, things will really get going to the upside. Perhaps at the start of the new year. GE was off a few cents on light volume. I'm still leaving the open order in for the March calls here. It will take some more weakness to get filled. Gold fell on the employment numbers and that is not what I needed for the ABX call trade. The precious metal futures were off $17. The US dollar continued to rally with another strong session. The fundamentals for gold are negative. I suppose I should have cashed in the profit I had a couple of weeks ago as it appears that there will be no sustained rallies for gold. The XAU lost 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The ABX January call trade is still slightly in the black. Oversold now on a short term basis for ABX. USO was lower today as well. The strong US dollar does not help this issue. I am still considering the February calls here but I certainly don't know where the bottom is for oil. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We've got about two real weeks of trading left into the December option expiration before things really slow down for the holidays. I do not expect any real declines and any weakness will be bought. I may begin to look at the January OEX or SPY calls because I expect a nice pop at the beginning of next year. I could be wrong. But like I said, once all of the stock indices are into new high ground we should take off. There is no overhead resistance. Markets tend to stay overbought for a long time in good rallies. Witness the recent action in the US dollar. Now all things don't last forever but you've got to take advantage of the situations when they occur. Gold has not been able to build on that huge reversal move last week to the upside. That is not a positive going forward. Neither is that fact that the gold share indexes were rebuffed at their 50 day moving averages. Now time also becomes a factor for this ABX January call trade that I have because there are only six weeks left. Plenty to think about over the weekend. I'll be checking the charts as usual and trying to come up with a game plan for the rest of this year. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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